树轮记录的黄河源区过去390 a流量变化

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20160884

自然资源学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 1568-1578.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160884

树轮记录的黄河源区过去390 a流量变化

肖丁木^{1, 2, 3, 4}, 黄小梅³, 秦宁生^{3, 5, *}

1. 中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室,乌鲁木齐 830002;
2. 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,成都 610225;
3. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都 610072;
4. 四川省气象台,成都 610072;
5. 四川省气候中心,成都 610072

收稿日期:2016-08-16 修回日期:2016-12-26 出版日期:2017-09-20 发布日期:2017-09-20
通讯作者: 秦宁生（1962- ）,男,河南商丘人,正研级高工,主要从事树轮气候学及其气候变化研究。E-mail:qinns0515@163.com
作者简介:肖丁木（1985- ）,男,四川达州人,硕士研究生,工程师,主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail:noonemao520@163.com
基金资助:
中国沙漠气象科学研究基金（Sqj2016002）; 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室开放课题资助课题（PAEKL-2017-C2）; 国家自然科学基金项目（41772173,41375116,41405077）

Streamflow Reconstruction Based on Tree Ring in the Source Region of Yellow River Region over the Past 390 Years

XIAO Ding-mu^{1, 2, 3, 4}, HUANG Xiao-mei³, QIN Ning-sheng^{3, 5}

1. Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China;
2. Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225, China;
3. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA/ Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;
4. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China;
5. Climate Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China

Received:2016-08-16 Revised:2016-12-26 Online:2017-09-20 Published:2017-09-20
Supported by:
China Desert Meteorological Science Research Foundation,No.Sqj2016002; Open Research Fund Program of Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, No.PAEKL-2017-C2; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41772173, 41375116 and 41405077

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 论文利用采自黄河源区的两个样点的祁连圆柏树轮样本建立了区域树轮宽度年表,分析了树木生长与流量的关系,结果表明1—7月的平均流量与树轮宽度密切相关,相关系数达0.73。由此重建了黄河源区过去390 a来的流量变化,统计检验结果表明,重建方程方差解释量高达53.6%。重建序列大体经历了7个丰水期和10个枯水期。周期分析结果表明,重建序列存在着42、18和2~4 a左右的显著变化周期。区域对比结果表明,重建结果与周边其他基于树轮资料的重建序列的干湿变化有较好的一致性,证明了论文重建序列的准确性。

关键词: 黄河源区, 流量变化, 树木年轮

Abstract: The source region of the Yellow River in the hinterlands of the Tibetan Plateau is the principal headstream of the Yellow River. The ecological environment has deteriorated in recent decades and climate change influences have been observed in the area. Changes in the ecological environment mainly include substantial streamflow reduction, wetland destruction and severe droughts. Therefore, research regarding water resources including river formation and evolution in this area is needed for the preservation of the ecological environment and water supply. It is important to develop new tree-ring chronologies in the source region of the Yellow River in order to recognize streamflow variation in the past. A regional tree-ring width chronology (RC) was developed based on Sabina przewalskii Kom samples at two individual sites in the source region of the Yellow River. Tree-ring samples were prepared, cross-dated and measured following conventional procedures. Statistical analysis showed that the regional tree-ring chronology (RC) was highly correlated (r=0.73) with instrumental streamflow records from January to July at the hydrological stations. Based on the analyses, we reconstructed streamflow records from January to July during 1624-2013. The reconstruction captured 53.6% of the instrumental streamflow variance. In the past 390 years, we identified seven relatively high streamflow periods (1632-1643, 1657-1695, 1751-1764, 1798-1813, 1836-1856, 1886-1914 and 1934-1947) and ten relatively low streamflow periods (1644-1656, 1696-1706, 1708-1720, 1727-1750, 1787-1797, 1814-1835, 1857-1885, 1915-1933, 1952-1968 and 1993-2006). The longest high period is 1657-1695 (39 years), and the longest low period is 1857-1885 (29 years). The MTM analysis suggested the existence of significant change circles with intervals of 42, 18 and 2-4 years. The reconstruction was validated by comparison it with other reconstructions in the surrounding area. The streamflow reconstruction significantly correlates with the constructions in Tongtian River (r=0.51, P<0.001) and the upper Yellow River (r=0.60, P<0.001). Also, the streamflow reconstruction significantly correlates with the precipitation reconstructions in Delingha region (r=0.55, P<0.001) and the southern Tibetan Plateau (r=0.46, P<0.001). These three areas shared the same drought periods (1650s-1670s, 1780s-1800s, 1820s-1830s, and 1920s-1930s) and wet periods (1840s-1850s, and 1880s-1910s). The consistency and correlation of constructions in these regions proved the accuracy of the reconstruction sequence in this article.

Key words: flow variation, source region of Yellow River, tree-ring

中图分类号:

P333.1

肖丁木, 黄小梅, 秦宁生. 树轮记录的黄河源区过去390 a流量变化[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(9): 1568-1578.

XIAO Ding-mu, HUANG Xiao-mei, QIN Ning-sheng. Streamflow Reconstruction Based on Tree Ring in the Source Region of Yellow River Region over the Past 390 Years[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2017, 32(9): 1568-1578.

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树轮记录的黄河源区过去390 a流量变化

Streamflow Reconstruction Based on Tree Ring in the Source Region of Yellow River Region over the Past 390 Years

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