中国农村生态环境质量动态评价及未来发展趋势预测

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20160555

自然资源学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 864-876.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160555

中国农村生态环境质量动态评价及未来发展趋势预测

王晓君, 吴敬学, 蒋和平^*

中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081

收稿日期:2016-05-30 修回日期:2016-10-10 出版日期:2017-05-20 发布日期:2017-05-20
通讯作者: 蒋和平（1956- ）,男,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为农业现代化与现代农业。E-mail: jiangheping@caas.cn
作者简介:王晓君（1986- ）,女,山西平遥县人,博士后,研究方向为资源管理与环境政策。E-mail: xjwang86@gmail.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目（14ZDAZ0241）; 国家自然科学基金项目（71273263）; 中国博士后科学基金（2016M590164）

Dynamic Assessment and Trend Prediction of Rural Eco-environmental Quality in China

WANG Xiao-jun, WU Jin-xue, JIANG He-ping

Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2016-05-30 Revised:2016-10-10 Online:2017-05-20 Published:2017-05-20
Supported by:
National Social Science Fund, No.14ZDAZ0241National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71273263; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, No.2016M590164

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 客观评价和预测我国农村生态环境质量状况及发展趋势,对于保障粮食安全、实现农村经济可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。论文基于压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型框架,构建了我国农村生态环境质量评价指标体系,分析了2000—2015年我国农村生态环境质量的动态变化。基于GM(1,1)模型,预测了“十三五”期间我国农村生态环境质量的发展态势。研究结果表明：2000—2015年我国农村生态环境质量的综合评价得分从0.669下降到0.387,农村生态环境质量总体呈现恶化趋势,农村生态环境承受的污染排放压力越来越大,环境治理投入较少,尚未形成对农村生态环境恶化情形的逆转。如果继续延续过去农业经济发展模式,2020年我国农村生态环境质量状况将会持续恶化,与“十三五”绿色发展的良好愿景目标相差甚远。

关键词: "十三五"绿色发展目标, GM(1, PSR模型, 1)预测模型, 农村生态环境质量

Abstract: Objectively assessing rural eco-environmental quality and predicting its development trend have important theoretical and practical significance for food security, sustainable development of rural economy, and harmonious relationship between economic growth and ecological environment. Based on the framework of PSR model, the paper constructed an evaluating index system to assess the dynamic changes of rural eco-environment during 2000-2015. And the GM grey system theory model was applied to predict the evolution trend of rural eco-environment during the 13rd Five-Year Plan period. The results showed: 1) The quality of rural eco-environment had been falling in the past 15 years. The comprehensive evaluated score of rural eco-environment decreased from 0.669 in 2000 to 0.387 in 2015. The pollutions emission in rural areas was increasing, but the input to environmental protection was low. The continuing growth of Chinese rural economy was at the cost of ecological and environmental deterioration. 2) According to the past growth mode of rural economics, rural eco-environmental quality will continue deteriorating during 2016-2020, far from the expectation of green development during the 13rd Five-Year Plan. We need to change the mode of rural production as soon as possible in order to ease the pressure on rural soil and water imposed by fertilizers and pesticides, and enhance investment in rural environmental protection as much as possible.

Key words: 13th Five-Year Plan, GM model, PSR model, quality of rural eco-environment

中图分类号:

X171

王晓君, 吴敬学, 蒋和平. 中国农村生态环境质量动态评价及未来发展趋势预测[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(5): 864-876.

WANG Xiao-jun, WU Jin-xue, JIANG He-ping. Dynamic Assessment and Trend Prediction of Rural Eco-environmental Quality in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2017, 32(5): 864-876.

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中国农村生态环境质量动态评价及未来发展趋势预测

Dynamic Assessment and Trend Prediction of Rural Eco-environmental Quality in China

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