自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (11): 1858-1870.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20151333

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析

张路路, 郑新奇*, 张春晓, 吕永强   

  1. 中国地质大学（北京）信息工程学院,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2015-12-02 修回日期:2016-04-15 出版日期:2016-11-20 发布日期:2016-11-20
  • 作者简介:张路路（1985- ）,男,河南博爱人,博士研究生,主要从事土地信息技术与应用、空间规划研究。E-mail:luluzhang@cugb.edu.cn *通信作者简介：郑新奇（1963- ）,男,河南伊川人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事空间分析与建模、空间规划辅助决策技术、GIS开发与应用和土地评价与规划等研究。E-mail:zhengxq@cugb.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家国际科技合作专项项目（2015DFA01370）

Early-warning of Urban Vulnerability in Tangshan CityBased on Variable Weight Model

ZHANG Lu-lu, ZHENG Xin-qi, ZHANG Chun-xiao, LÜ Yong-qiang   

  1. School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2015-12-02 Revised:2016-04-15 Online:2016-11-20 Published:2016-11-20
  • Supported by:
    International S & T Cooperation Program of China, No.2015DFA01370

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摘要： 城市脆弱性评价预警是城市脆弱性研究的重要内容。研究以资源型城市唐山作为案例,基于资源、环境、经济和社会框架构建了城市脆弱性预警指标体系,引入惩罚型变权模型对2000—2014年城市脆弱性的警情进行评价测度,结合GM（1,1）模型对2015—2020年城市脆弱性警情进行了预测。结果表明：1）变权模型能够有效满足资源型城市脆弱性预警研究;2）2000—2014年,唐山城市脆弱性预警指数由0.449上升至0.716,警度等级呈下降态势,从“重警”演变为“轻警”,警情指示灯由“橙灯”演变为“蓝灯”;3）2015—2020年唐山城市脆弱性预警等级预测结果为“轻警”变为“无警”,警情指示灯为“蓝灯”变为“绿灯”。研究结果可为城市脆弱性评价提供方法基础和科学依据,为改善唐山脆弱状况提供决策支持。

关键词: 1)模型, GM(1, 变权模型, 城市脆弱性, 唐山市, 预警

Abstract: At present, cities in China face highly and rapidly increasing exposure to risks of resource, environment, society and economy, calling for effective countermeasures to solve the problem. Urban vulnerability reflects the ability of city system to resist the disturbances from resources, ecological environment, economic and social development, and other internal and external factors. When the ability to resist disturbance is lower than a certain threshold value, the city will be vulnerable. Urban vulnerability evaluation and early-warning is an important content of urban vulnerability research. The paper selected Tangshan City as the study region, and constructed an urban vulnerability evaluation and early-warning index system by employing “Ecology-Environment-Economy-Society” (EEES) framework. It introduced the variable weight to estimate the early-warning level of urban vulnerability of Tangshan City from 2000 to 2014. And the Grey System GM (1,1) forecast model was used to predict the urban vulnerability trend of the city from 2015 to 2020. The results indicated that the variable weight model could meet needs of urban vulnerability evaluation and early-warning. The level of urban vulnerability showed an upward trend in Tangshan City during the past 15 years, the index growing from 0.449 to 0.716, the warning degree descending from “serious alert” to “light alert”, and the indicator lamp turning from “orange light” to “blue light”. From 2015 to 2020, the urban vulnerability warning level is predicated to turn from the “light alarm” to “no alert”, and the lamp will turn from “blue light” into “green light”. However, the urban vulnerability situation is still not optimistic. We still need to take precautionary measures to prevent vulnerability risk. These findings could provide scientific basis for the urban vulnerability assessment, and provide policy support for the improvement of the urban vulnerability of Tangshan.

Key words: 1) model, early-warning, GM(1, Tangshan City, urban vulnerability, variable weight model

中图分类号: 

  • F299.27