自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (7): 1138-1148.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20150934

• 资源经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于空间计量模型的河南省用水效率影响因素分析

鲍超1, 陈小杰1, 梁广林2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101;
    2. 中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护区域生态过程与功能评估重点实验室,北京 100012
  • 收稿日期:2015-08-28 修回日期:2015-10-30 出版日期:2016-07-20 发布日期:2016-07-20
  • 作者简介:鲍超（1978- ）,男,湖北麻城人,博士,副研究员,硕士生导师,近期主要从事城镇化与城市可持续发展研究。E-mail:baoc@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（41590844,41571156）; 中国科学院特色研究所培育建设服务项目（TSYJS02）

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Water Use Efficiency in Henan Province Based on Spatial Econometric Models

BAO Chao1, CHEN Xiao-jie1, LIANG Guang-lin2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of State Environment Protection and Regional Eco-process and Function Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
  • Received:2015-08-28 Revised:2015-10-30 Online:2016-07-20 Published:2016-07-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No 41590844 and 41571156 ;Service Project on the Cultivation and Construction for the Characteristic Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No TSYJS02

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摘要： 在水资源总量约束下,提高水资源利用效率是保障缺水地区城镇化、工业化与经济社会发展的必然途径。论文以河南省地级市2000—2013年面板数据为基础,运用空间计量模型,从水资源禀赋、水资源开发利用程度、经济发展水平、城镇化水平、产业结构、用水结构、农业现代化水平、信息化水平等方面入手,对河南省用水效率的影响因素进行分析。结果表明：1）河南省地级市用水效率存在不可忽视的空间自相关特征,时空固定形式下的空间杜宾模型可以实现其最优模拟;2）河南省各地级市用水效率明显受邻近地级市用水效率的影响,其空间溢出弹性系数达到0.31;3）水资源禀赋、水资源开发利用程度对河南省各地级市用水效率产生显著的负向影响,但其空间溢出效应不明显;4）经济发展水平、城镇化发展水平、产业结构优化水平对河南省各地级市用水效率产生显著的正向影响,而且除工业化水平外,空间溢出效应十分明显;5）用水结构变化、农业现代化、信息化水平与河南省用水效率的相关关系总体不明显,河南省水资源可持续利用与全国“四化”协调发展示范区建设的关系有待进一步协调。

关键词: 城镇化, 空间杜宾模型, 空间误差模型, 空间滞后模型, 用水效率

Abstract: Constrained by total amount of water resources, the improvement of water use efficiency is the necessary way to guarantee the development of urbanization, industrialization and social-economy in water scarce areas. Based on the panel data of the prefecture-level cities during the period of 2000-2013, we analyzed the influencing factors of water use efficiency in Henan Province by spatial econometric models, from the aspects of water resources endowment, water resources development level, economic development level, urbanization level, industrial structure, water utilization structure, agricultural modernization level and information level. The results show that: 1) There are notable spatial autocorrelation of water use efficiency among different prefecture-level cities in Henan Province, which can be best estimated by Spatial Dubin Model with spatial-temporal fixed effect. 2) The spatial spillover effect of water use efficiency in Henan Province is significant, i.e., if the water use efficiency in the neighboring prefecture-level cities increased 1%, then the water use efficiency of the prefecture-level city would increase 0.31%. 3) The endowment and the development level of water resources have significant negative effects on the water use efficiency of prefecture-level cities in Henan Province. However, the spatial spillover effects are not significant. 4) The economic development level, the urbanization level and the industrial structure optimization level have significant positive effects on the water use efficiency of prefecture-level cities in Henan Province. Moreover, the spatial spillover effect of each factor is very significant except for the industrialization level. 5) The change of water utilization structure, the agricultural modernization level and informatization level have few effects on the water use efficiency of prefecture-level cities in Henan Province. It indicates that a further coordination should be strengthened on the relationship between the sustainable utilization of water resources and the construction of national demonstration area of coordinated development of urbanization, industrialization, informatization & agricultural modernization in Henan Province.

Key words: Spatial Dubin Model (SDM), Spatial Error Model (SEM), Spatial Lag Model (SLM), urbanization, water use efficiency

中图分类号: 

  • TV213.4