自然资源学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 124-134.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20141537

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近20 a来甘肃省县域人均粮食占有量时空格局及其驱动力研究

潘竟虎, 张建辉, 胡艳兴   

  1. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-21 出版日期:2016-01-20 发布日期:2016-01-20
  • 作者简介:潘竟虎(1974- ),男,甘肃嘉峪关人,副教授,博士,研究方向为空间经济分析。E-mail:panjh_nwnu@nwnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41361040); 甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目(2014-63)

Spatial-temporal Pattern of per Capital Grain Possessionand Its Driving Forces in Gansu Province

PAN Jing-hu, ZHANG Jian-hui, HU Yan-xing   

  1. College of Geographic and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • Received:2014-11-21 Online:2016-01-20 Published:2016-01-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41361040; Fundamental Research Funds for the Universities of Gansu Province, No; 2014-63

摘要: 以甘肃省87个县域为研究单元,基于1991、1996、2001、2006、2011年的统计数据,采用ESDA、重心迁移、GWR等方法对甘肃省县域人均粮食占有量的空间格局进行测定,并分析区域差异的空间异质性及变化的驱动机制。结果表明:1991—2011年间,甘肃省县域人均粮食占有量呈现总体上升、期间波动的态势,重心自西北向东南迁移。人均粮食占有量的空间自相关特征明显,热点区主要集中分布在河西走廊中部,冷点区主要聚集在陇中和甘南,20 a间,冷、热点格局发生了较大变化。人均粮食变化驱动因素的非均衡联动局域性特征显著,人口数量对人均粮食占有变化的影响最大,呈负相关,其次是经济发展水平和城市化率;多个影响因素在空间上存在明显的经度或纬度地带性规律。

Abstract: The food security is related to the national economic development and the social stabilization. The study on regional difference of per capita grain possession and its driving mechanism at the county level is significant to regional food security in the situation of limited arable land and rapid urbanization, especially in underdeveloped areas. Agricultural statistics of Gansu Province at county level for the period of 1991-2011 is collected and the GIS spatial analysis technique as well as other tools such as Moran��s I, Getis-Ord and gravity model are introduced to describe the spatial variation of per capita grain possession at county level. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to explore the driving factors of per capita grain possession, and the aim is to illuminate the current situation of per capita grain possession, provide the scientific basis for sustainable development of agriculture in Gansu Province, and guarantee national grain security. The conclusions are as the follows. Firstly, per capita grain possession showed an overall trend of rise but fluctuated occasionally over the period of 1991-2011. The gravity center of per capita grain possession transferred from the northwest to southeast. Secondly, per capita grain possession at county level in Gansu showed a strong positive spatial autocorrelation that the similar areas clustered in space. The regional per capita grain possession had a significant spatial-temporal variation, and the trend of speciali-zation and regionalization was enhanced. The county-level per capita grain possession had been gradually depolarized. LISA cluster map demonstrated that counties with higher per capita grain possession gathered in the middle part of Hexi Corridor, while counties with lower per capita grain possession gathered in the area of Longzhong Loess Plateau and Gannan Plateau. Spatial pattern of hot spots and cold spots changed significantly during the past 20 years. Thirdly, the driving forces of the evolvement of per capita grain possession can be identified through the following aspects: the basis of natural conditions, the policies on regional development, the interaction among economy, science and technology, and the productive factor. Effective regulation and favorable policies can promote per capita grain possession and guarantee regional grain safety. The driving factors of different regions show localization characteristic of non-stationary intercourse. The effect of population change on variation of per capita grain possession is the largest, whose coefficient estimation is negative. The secondary factor is the economic development level. The urbanization rate is the third influencing factor, and it is negatively correlated with per capita grain possession. The majority of factors that influence the per capita grain possession of Gansu at county level showed obvious latitudinal zonality or longitudinal zonality.

中图分类号: 

  • F307.11