• 资源经济 •

### 福利经济视角下国家煤炭应急储备规模模型构建及敏感性分析

1. 1. 中国矿业大学管理学院, 中国江苏徐州221116;
2. 美国劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室环境能源技术部, 美国加利福尼亚州伯克利94720
• 收稿日期:2013-08-06 修回日期:2013-12-15 出版日期:2014-07-20 发布日期:2014-07-20
• 作者简介:刘满芝（1978-），女，江苏徐州人，博士，副教授，硕士生导师，研究方向为能源经济与管理、物流与供应链管理。E-mail：liumanzhi@cumt.edu.cn
• 基金资助:
中国软科学基金（2010GXQ5D331）；中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目（2014M551708）；教育部人文社科基金青年项目（10YJC630150）；江苏省博士后科研资助计划（1302079B）；中国煤炭工业协会科学技术研究指导性计划项目（MTJKJ2010-239）；中国矿业大学管理学院高水平论文专项基金项目（201219）

### National Coal Emergency Reserve Scale Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis from Welfare Economic Perspective

LIU Man-zhi1,2, QU Chuan-zhi1, ZHOU Mei-hua1, XIE Feng-min1

1. 1. School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;
2. Environmental Energy Tech Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley CA 94720, USA
• Received:2013-08-06 Revised:2013-12-15 Online:2014-07-20 Published:2014-07-20

Abstract: Decision-making of optimal scale of coal emergency reserve is the core problem in coal emergency reserve management. From the perspective of welfare economy, using costbenefit analysis method and combining the characteristics of coal reserves products, we built the national coal emergency reserve scale model. Through the parameter estimation, numerical simulation, the optimal scale of national coal emergency reserve was estimated under the baseline scenario and its main influencing factors were excavated by sensitivity analysis. The results show that: the optimal scale of national coal emergency reserve is the scale when the national coal emergency reserve marginal revenue equals to its marginal cost; under baseline scenario the optimal reserve scale is 16 days of coal consumption amount which is equivalent to the 4%-5% of annual total coal consumption through parameter estimations of the price elasticity of coal demand, coal reserve cost, coal price and coal supply interruption scale by using numerical simulation; the price elasticity of coal demand and coal supply interruption scale are the two main factors which influence the optimal reserve scale by sensitivity analysis, if the price elasticity of coal demand transfers from -0.12 to -0.1, -0.13, -0.15, the optimal coal emergency reserve scale would respectively change from 16 days to 27 days, 12 days and 7 days, and if the average number of days of coal supplies disruptions transfers from 14 days to 20 days, 12 days and 7 days, the optimal reserve scale would respectively change from 16 days to 44 days, 9 days and 1 day. That if the average number of days of coal supplies disruptions is 7 days and below, the amount of national coal emergency reserves is built equaling to 1 day amount of the coal consumption. The conclusions of the study can provide a theoretical basis and data support for the decision-making of national coal emergency reserve scale.

• F426.21