太湖流域粮食生产时空格局演变与粮食安全评价

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.06.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

太湖流域既是中国传统粮食高产区又是当前经济发展的前沿阵地。论文从宏观视角探讨了该区1985—2010年27个县域粮食生产时空变化格局及粮食安全水平,结果表明:时间演化上该区粮食产量不稳定,但总体呈下降趋势,历经波动发展—急剧减少—稳步增长三阶段;空间差异亦较显著,除西北4个县域,其余地区粮食产量均有不同程度下降,粮食生产重心逐渐由中部向西北偏移,县域粮食生产相对优势弱化,整体粮食生产能力降低;粮食总产变异系数和70%以上年份波动系数超全国平均水平,粮食安全风险大;粮食不安全县域增多,2010年59%的县域粮食不安全。未来该区仍受到耕地数量减少和质量退化威胁,完善耕地保护政策并提出保障粮食安全的区域差别化措施具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 粮食生产, 粮食安全, 太湖流域

Abstract:

Taihu Lake Basin is China's traditional food producing area with high grain yield and the forefront of China's economic development. With the gradual population increase and rapid urbanization development, the demand for food is increasing rapidly while cropland resources are fast dwindling. Therefore, the supply and demand conflict of food keeps intensifying. From a macro perspective, this paper discusses the temporal and spatial patterns of grain production changes and food security level of 27 county seats in Taihu Lake Basin from 1985 to 2010. The results are as follows: Firstly, the grain production showed instability and a tendency to decline, and it can be divided into three stages which are fluctuant development-sharp drop-stead growth. Secondly, it also showed significant regional differences. The analysis of different regions reveals the reality that all county seats have different degrees of decline other than the four counties in the northwest, especially Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Hangzhou. Then, the gravity centers of grain production appear the tendency moving from central area to northwest area and relative advantages of food production gradually blurred. On the whole, it presented a decline in the grain production. Finally, based on food security assessment, the fluctuations coefficient of more than 70% of the years and the total grain yield variation are above the national average level, so there will be a high-risk of food security. It is illustrated that the food insecurity counties expand from 4 to 16 and 59% has been a serious food deficit. In the future, the study area is still threatened by the decrease in the quantity and the degradation of the quality of cultivated land. In view of the analysis results, countermeasures for reducing cropland pressure and guaranteeing the balance of food supply were proposed, and it is of great significance to perfect the protection policy of cultivated land and grain production and bring forward some research measures for ensuring food security according to the actual situation of different regions.

Key words: grain production, food security, Taihu Lake Basin

中图分类号:

F326.11

潘佩佩, 杨桂山, 苏伟忠, 张健. 太湖流域粮食生产时空格局演变与粮食安全评价[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(6): 931-943.

PAN Pei-pei, YANG Gui-shan, SU Wei-zhong, ZHANG Jian. Spatio-temporal Structure Variation of Grain Production and the Evaluation of Grain Security in Taihu Lake Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2013, 28(6): 931-943.

参考文献

[1] FAO. The state of food insecurity in the world 2008. Rome: FAO, 2008.

[2] 刘彦随, 吴传钧. 中国水土资源态势与可持续食物安全[J]. 自然资源学报, 2002, 17(3): 270-275.[LIU Yan-sui, WU chuan-jun. Situation of land-water resources and analysis of sustainable food security in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2002, 17(3): 270-275.]

[3] 刘彦随, 翟荣新. 中国粮食生产时空格局动态及其优化策略探析[J]. 地域研究与开发, 2009, 28(1): 1-5.[LIU Yan-sui, ZHAI Rong-xin. Spatial-temporal-pattern changes and optimal strategy of-grain production in China since 1990s. Areal Research and Development, 2009, 28(1): 1-5.]

[4] DENG Xiang-zheng, HUANG Ji-kun, Rozelle Scott, et al. Cultivated land conversion and potential agricultural productivity in China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2006(23): 372-384.

[5] 谭永忠, 吴次芳, 王庆日, 等. "耕地总量动态平衡"政策驱动下中国的耕地变化及其生态环境效应[J]. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(5): 727-734.[TAN Yong-zhong, WU Ci-fang, WANG Qing-ri, et al. The change of cultivated land and ecological environment effects driven by the policy of dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(5): 727-734.]

[6] 杨桂山. 长江三角洲近50年耕地数量变化的过程与驱动机制研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2001, 16(2): 121-127.[YANG Gui-shan. The process and driving forces of change in arable-land area in the Yangtze River Delta during the past 50 years. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 16(2): 121-127.]

[7] 彭补拙, 安旭东, 陈浮, 等. 长江三角洲土地资源可持续利用研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2001, 16(4): 305-312.[PENG Bu-zhuo, AN Xu-dong, CHEN Fu, et al. A study on sustainable land use in the Yangtze River Delta. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 16(4): 305-312.]

[8] 苏伟忠, 杨桂山, 顾朝林. 苏州市耕地保护等级评价[J]. 自然资源学报, 2007, 22(3): 353-360.[SU Wei-zhong, YANG Gui-shan, GU Chao-lin. Research on gradation evaluation of cultivated land conservation in Suzhou City. Journal of Natural Resources, 2007, 22(3): 353-360.]

[9] 赵霞, 封志明, 杨艳昭. 1961年至2007年全球粮食生产的时空演变特征与地域格局[J]. 资源科学, 2010, 32(5): 907-916.[ZHAO Xia, FENG Zhi-ming, YANG Yan-zhao. An Evaluation of world cereals production in recent 50 years from a view of spatial-temporal patterns and regional differences. Resources Science, 2010, 32(5): 907-916.]

[10] 吴文斌, 唐华俊, 杨鹏, 等. 基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(8): 907-918.[WU Wen-bin, TANG Hua-jun, YANG Peng, et al. Model-based assessment of food security at a global scale. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(8): 907-918.]

[11] 熊友云, 张明军, 刘园园, 等. 中国粮食产量省区差距变化及其成因分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(6): 965-974.[XIONG You-yun, ZHANG Ming-jun, LIU Yuan-yuan, et al. Analysis on the shift of provincial gaps of China's grain production and contributing factors. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(6): 965-974.]

[12] 胡文海. 中国中部地区粮食生产特征及其对中国粮食安全的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2008, 27(4): 885-896.[HU Wen-hai. Characteristics of gain production in Central China and its influence on national grain safety. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(4): 885-896.]

[13] 潘佩佩, 杨桂山, 苏伟忠. 土地利用变化对土地生产力的影响研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2012, 31(5): 539-550.[PAN Pei-pei, YANG Gui-shan, SU Wei-zhong. Progress on effects of land use change on land productivity. Progress in Geography, 2012, 31(5): 539-550.]

[14] Verburg P H, Chen Y, Veldkamp T. Spatial explorations of land use change and grain production in China[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2000, 82(1/3): 333-354.

[15] Yan H, Liu J, Huang H Q, et al. Assessing the consequence of land use change on agricultural productivity in China[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2009, 67(1/2): 13-19.

[16] 邹健, 龙花楼. 改革开放以来中国耕地利用与粮食生产安全格局变动研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(8): 1366-1377.[ZOU Jian, LONG Hua-lou. The variation of farm land use and the security pattern of grain production in China since 1978. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(8): 1366-1377.]

[17] Yang H, Li X B. Cultivated land and food supply in China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2000, 17(2): 73-88.

[18] 傅泽强, 蔡运龙, 杨友孝, 等. 中国粮食安全与耕地资源变化的相关分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2001, 16(4): 313-319.[FU Ze-qiang, CAI Yun-long, YANG You-xiao, et al. Research on the relationship of cultivated land change and food security in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 16(4): 313-319.]

[19] 肖丽群, 陈伟, 吴群, 等. 未来10a长江三角洲地区耕地数量变化对区域粮食产能的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(4): 565-576.[XIAO Li-qun, CHEN Wei, WU Qun, et al. Impact of cultivated land quantity change on grain productive capacity of Yangtze River Delta in the next 10 years—From the perspective of cultivated land quality grade. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(4): 565-576.]

[20] 李玉平, 蔡运龙. 浙江省耕地变化与粮食安全的分析及预测[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(4): 466-470.[LI Yu-ping, CAI Yun-long. Analysis and prediction of cropland change and grain security in Zhejiang Province. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2007, 16(4): 466-470.]

[21] 李裕瑞, 刘彦随, 龙花楼. 江苏省粮食生产时空变化的影响机制[J]. 地理科学进展, 2009, 28(1): 125-131.[LI Yu-rui, LIU Yan-sui, LONG Hua-lou. Influencing mechanism of spatio-temporal variation of grain production in Jiangsu Province. Progress in Geography, 2009, 28(1): 125-131.]

[22] 殷培红, 方修琦. 中国粮食安全脆弱区的识别及空间分异特征[J]. 地理学报, 2008, 63(10): 1064-1072.[YIN Pei-hong, FANG Xiu-qi. Assessment on vulnerable regions of food security in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(10): 1064-1072.]

[23] 党安荣, 阎守邕, 周艺. 中国粮食生产发展的时序变化研究[J]. 地理研究, 1998, 17(3): 242-248.[DANG An-rong, YAN Shou-yong, ZHOU Yi. A study on the temporal variation of China's grain production development. Geographical Research, 1998, 17(3): 242-248.]

[24] 金涛, 陆建飞. 江苏粮食生产地域分化的耕地因素分解[J]. 经济地理, 2011, 31(11): 1886-1890.[JIN Tao, LU Jian-fei. Factor decomposition in regional disparities of grain production in Jiangsu Province. Economic Geography, 2011, 31(11): 1886-1890.]

[25] 马树庆, 王琪. 区域粮食安全的内涵、评估方法及保障措施[J]. 资源科学, 2010, 32(1): 35-41.[MA Shu-qing, WANG Qi. Connotation, evaluation indices, methods and safe guard measures for regional grain security. Resources Science, 2010, 32(1): 35-41.]

[26] 张利国. 中国区域粮食安全演变: 1949—2008[J]. 经济地理, 2011, 31(5): 833-838.[ZHANG Li-guo. Evolution of China's regional food security: 1949-2008. Economic Geography, 2011, 31(5): 833-838.]

[27] 张红富, 周生路, 吴绍华, 等. 江苏省粮食生产时空变化及影响因素分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(2): 319-327.[ZHANG Hong-fu, ZHOU Sheng-lu, WU Shao-hua, et al. Temporal and spatialvariation ofgrain production in Jiangsu Province and its influencing factors. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(2): 319-327.]