PDF(5655 KB)
PDF(5655 KB)
PDF(5655 KB)
近50 a来海南岛不同气候区气候变化特征研究
Research on Climate Change Characteristics of Different Climatic Regions in Hainan Island in the Last 50 Years
利用均匀分布在海南岛的7个国家标准气象站1959-2008年温度和降水资料以及海南岛气候区划成果,研究海南岛近50 a来不同气候区的气候变化特征,结果显示:近50 a来海南岛各气候区的温度总体呈上升趋势,并以东北区及西南区温度上升最为明显,其次是中部山区、东南区和西北区。在年际尺度上,不同温度指标的增幅大小排列为:年平均最低温度(Tmin)>年平均温度(Tmean)>年平均最高温度(Tmax)。在季节尺度上为:秋季和冬季>春季和夏季。不同气候区各季节的增温幅度地区间差异与年际尺度相似。各气候区的年平均温度都有突变发生。其中,西南区的突变时间为1972-1974年,西北区为1979年,东北区为1987年,东南区为1985-1990年,中部山区为1990年。各气候区累年平均降水量差异较大,以中部山区降水最为丰沛,西南区相对较少;各气候区在年际尺度上的降水波动较大,除西南区外,年降水量距平都未通过P<0.05的显著性检验。干季和湿季的降水量对年降水总量的贡献率以湿季最大,为80%,干季较小,为20%;干季多小雨,湿季多大雨。在干季,中部山区降水的贡献率最大,其他气候区相对较小,而湿季却相反。各气候区大雨和暴雨的降水量约占年降水总量的50%;西南区为大暴雨及特大暴雨多发地区。
By connecting temperature and precipitation data of seven national standard meteorological stations which were evenly distributed in Hainan Island from 1959 to 2008 with the existing climatic regionalization of Hainan Island, we studied climate change of different climatic regions in Hainan Island in the last 50 years. And the result showed that the trend of temperature increase obviously existed in these regions in the last 50 years, with warming amplitudes being higher in Northeast, Southwest, Central Mountain, Southeast and Northwest regions, respectively. In interannual time scale, the warming amplitudes of annual average maximum temperature (Tmax), annual mean temperature (Tmean) and annual average minimum temperature (Tmin) were decreasing from Tmin to Tmax. In seasonal time scale, the annual mean temperature (Tmean) was increasing seasonally in different regions, with warming amplitudes being higher in winter, autumn, spring and summer, respectively. The seasonal warming amplitudes of geographic differences were similar to those in interannual time scale. What’s more, the abrupt change of Tmean was changeable in different climatic regions, being 1972-1974 in Southwest, 1979 in Northwest, 1987 in Northeast, 1985-1990 in Southeast, and 1990 in Central Mountain regions, respectively. And the annual average precipitations were changeable in different climatic regions which were higher in Central Mountain regions, then decreasing in the order of Southeast, Northwest, Northeast and Southwest. On the other hand, the annual precipitation anomaly and abrupt change of all climatic regions fluctuated sharply except Southwest region which got through the significance test (P<0.05). Generally, percentages of dry/wet seasonal precipitation accounted for 20% and 80% respectively in annual precipitation in different climatic regions. Light rainfall mainly occurred in dry season while heavy rainfall mainly in wet season. And the contribution rate of precipitation in dry season is the highest in Central Mountain region while in wet season it was the contrary. The precipitation levels of heavy rain and rainstorm had great influence on annual precipitation, which accounted for about 50% of total precipitation. And Southwest region was the heavy rainstorm and extremely heavy rainstorm-prone area.
气候变化 / 回归分析 / 温度和降水 / 海南岛 {{custom_keyword}} /
climate change / regression analysis / temperature and precipitation / Hainan Island {{custom_keyword}} /
[1] Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al. Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate change 2007: The Physical Science Basis [M]. IPCC WG1 AR4 Report, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[2] Liu Y X, Yan J H, Wu T W, et al. Prediction research of climate change trends over North China in the future 30 years [J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2008, 22(1): 42-50.
[3] Paradis A, Elkinton J, Hayhoe K, et al. Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America [J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2008, 13(5/6): 541-554.
[4] Wang X H, Piao S L, Ciais P, et al. Spring temperature change and its implication in the change of vegetation growth in North America from 1982 to 2006 [J]. PNAS, 2011, 108(4): 1240-1245.
[5] Yang H J, Wang F Y, Sun A, et al. Understanding the ocean temperature change in global warming: The tropical Pacific [J]. Tellus Series Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2009, 61(3): 371-380.
[6] Ose T, Arakawa O. Uncertainty of future precipitation change due to global warming associated with sea surface temperature change in the tropical Pacific [J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 2011, 89(5): 539-552.
[7] Mendelsohn R, Emanuel K, Chonabayashi S, et al. The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage [J]. Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2(3): 205-209.
[8] 徐淑英, 徐孟英, 高由禧. 海南岛的气候[J]. 气象学报, 1954, 25(3): 195-212. [XU Shu-ying, XU Meng-ying, GAO You-xi. The climate of Hainan Island. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1954, 25(3): 195-212.]
[9] 陈焕镛, 张肇骞, 陈封怀. 海南植物志: 第一卷[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1964: 1-5. [CHEN Huan-yong, ZHANG Zhao-qian, CHEN Feng-huai. Flora of Hainan: Volume One. Beijing: Science Press, 1964: 1-5.]
[10] 陈树培. 海南岛的植被概况[J]. 生态科学, 1982, 1(1): 29-37. [CHEN Shu-pei. General conditions of vegetation in Hainan Island. Ecologic Science, 1982, 1(1): 29-37.]
[11] 何大章, 张声粦. 海南岛气候区划[J]. 地理学报, 1985, 40(2): 169-178. [HE Da-zhang, ZHANG Sheng-lin. The regional climate division of Hainan Island. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1985, 40(2): 169-178.]
[12] 陈小丽, 吴慧. 海南岛近42年气候变化特征[J]. 气象, 2003, 30(8): 27-31. [CHEN Xiao-li, WU Hui. Characteristics of climatic variation of Hainan Island for last 42 years. Meteorological Monthly, 2003, 30(8): 27-31.]
[13] 林松培, 李森, 李保生. 近50年来海南岛西部气候变化初步研究[J]. 气象, 2005, 31(2): 51-55. [LIN Pei-song, LI Sen, LI Bao-sheng. A study of climate variability in western Hainan Island for last 50 years. Meteorological Monthly, 2005, 31(2): 51-55.]
[14] 杨馥祯, 吴胜安. 近39年海南岛极端天气事件频率变化[J]. 气象, 2007, 33(3): 107-113. [YANG Fu-zhen, WU Sheng-an. Change of extreme weather events in Hainan Island for last 39 years. Meteorological Monthly, 2007, 33(3): 107-113.]
[15] 熊艳艳, 吴先球. 粗大误差四种判别准则的比较和应用[J]. 大学物理实验, 2010, 23(1): 66-68. [XIONG Yan-yan, WU Xian-qiu. The generalizing application of four judging criterions for gross errors. Physical Experiment of College, 2010, 23(1): 66-68.]
[16] 徐建华. 计量地理学[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2006: 32-36. [XU Jian-hua. Quantitative Geography. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2006: 32-36.]
[17] Cheng H. The mutation study of global climate: Argue or act [J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2004, 49(13): 1339-1344.
[18] 张强, 韩永翔, 宋连春. 全球气候变化及其影响因素研究进展综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(9): 990-998. [ZHANG Qiang, HAN Yong-xiang, SONG Lian-chun. The summarize of development of global climate change and its effect factors. Advance in Earth Science, 2005, 20(9): 990-998.]
[19] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999: 43-47. [WEI Feng-ying. Technology of Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1999: 43-47.]
[20] 秦大河. 进入21世纪的气候变化科学——气候变化的事实、影响与对策[J]. 科技导报, 2004(7): 4-7. [QIN Da-he. Climate change sciences into the 21st century: facts, impact and strategies addressing climate change. Science & Technology Review, 2004(7): 4-7.]
[21] 范代读, 李从先. 中国沿海响应气候变化的复杂性[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2005, 1(3): 111-114. [FAN Dai-du, LI Cong-xian. Complexities of Chinese coast in response to climate change. Advance in Climate Change Research, 2005, 1(3): 111-114.]
[22] 吴岩峻. 不同天气系统对海南岛降水的贡献及其变化的研究[D]. 兰州: 兰州大学, 2008. [WU Yan-jun. Research of Dynamic Change of Different Weather Systems Contribute to Precipitation in Hainan Island. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University, 2008.]
[23] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[24] Walther G R. Plants in a warmer world [J]. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 2004, 6: 169-185.
[25] Zhou L, Dickinson R E, Tian Y, et al. Evidence for a significant urbanization effect on climate in China [J]. PNAS, 2004, 101: 9540-9544.
[26] 尹云鹤, 吴绍洪, 陈刚. 1961-2006年我国气候变化趋势与突变的区域差异[J]. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(12): 2147-2157. [YIN Yun-he, WU Shao-hong, CHEN Gang. Regional difference of climate trend and abrupt climate change in China during 1961-2006. Journal of Natural Resourses, 2009, 24(12): 2147-2157.]
林业公益性行业科研专项(200804001)。
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
AI Summary
