论文从区域水资源社会经济系统结构分析入手,围绕水资源承载力研究的核心问题——水资源承载力评价指标体系,提出水资源承载力可以用宏观指标和综合指标来衡量。宏观指标从供需平衡角度描述水资源系统能够支撑的经济规模和人口数量;综合指标反映水资源社会经济系统的承载状态和协调状况。与评价指标相适应,建立了水资源承载力的计算模型与方法。将这一指标体系、模型与方法运用于实际,取得了较好的结果。

Based on the analysis of the water resources-society-economic system,this paper stu-died the evaluation index system of the water resources carrying capacity.Macroscopical indexes and integration indexes are put forward to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity. Macrosc-opical indexes are made up of the population and economy scale which the water resources are capable of supporting.They describe whether the water resources carrying capacity is big or small according to the water supply and demand.Integration indexes are made up of carrying capacity exponent and harmony exponent.The carrying capacity exponent reflects the status of water carrying capacity and the harmony exponent reflects the status of the water resources-society-economy system harmony.Based on the evaluation index systems,the mathematical models and algorithm of the water resources carrying capacity were established.Macroscopical indexes were calculated by the water supply and demand.Integration indexes were calculated by the analytic hierarchy process.As a case study,the water resources carrying capacity in North Huaihe River Region of Anhui Province was studied.Both of the systematic indexes and the models developed in this dissertation were calibrated and testified with the data of current year.It is found that the results of the different level year were satisfactory.