在可持续发展原则的指导下,基于多因素关联分析理论,提出一种生态环境承载力的定量分析方法。内容包括:①建立指标体系和多级关联评价模型,量化社会、经济、生态环境的发展质量;②提出可持续发展的综合测度函数,量化研究区可持续发展质量;③建立生态环境承载力量化分析模型。通过模型调整人口数量和GDP,在保持一定生态环境质量前提下,在满足水资源量供需平衡和可持续发展的要求下,得到适宜研究区生态环境的人口数量和GDP。将模型应用到海河流域,以1998年为现状年,考虑到南水北调工程、生态环境的修复和用水效率的提高,设计出6种情景方案。结果表明,提高海河流域的可供水能力(如南水北调工程等)和用水效率,是解决海河流域水生态环境危机的一个重要途径。

Under a new developmental idea,i.e.,sustainable development,the modern societal and economic development is moving step by step towards the orbit of harmonious development with eco environment.In this course,the research on eco environment carrying capacity is very impor tant.In order to quantificationally analyze eco environment carrying capacity,this paper developed a quantitative method under the guidance of sustainable development principle.The main content includes 3 parts:(1) to quantify the development quality of society,economy and eco environment al subsystem and establish the index system and Pattern Recognition Approach(PRA);(2) to iden tify the Sustainable Development Degree (SDD) and to quantify the development quality of the study area with it; and (3) to build eco environment carrying capacity analysis model.Under the prerequisite of maintaining a certain eco environmental quality,using the model to adjust population quantity and economic scale and make the "society economy eco environment" system have higher development quality.The corresponding population quantity and economic scale are the indicators of eco environment carrying capacity.In the case study,this model was applied to the Haihe Basin.Taking 1998 as the year of the Haihe Basin present situation, considering the south to north water transfer project,the eco environment rehabilitation project and the improvement of water use efficiency,6 kinds of scenario schemes were designed.Based on the above method,quantification analysis of the changes of eco environment carrying capacity was made.Research result shows to improve water supply ability through the south to north water transfer project and to improve water use efficiency by changing industrial structure constitute one of the basic ways to solve the water eco environmental crisis in the Haihe Basin.The present research will offer scientific basis at both national and local levels for the formulation of sustainable development policies and the determination of regional population and economic development scale that is suitable to local natural resource and environment situations.