关键词: 改进TOPSIS方法, 耕地系统安全, 鹰潭市, 障碍因素, 诊断

Abstract: Evaluation and obstacle factor diagnosis of cultivated land system security are significant foundation for improving the security of cultivated land system and promoting the sustainable use of cultivated land. This paper takes Yingtan City as the example area. According to the systemic thinking and “triad of quantity, quality, ecology of cultivated land”, this article selects 38 factors that reflect quantitative security, qualitative security and ecological security of cultivated land to build the evaluation index system based on the concepts of quantitative security, qualitative security and ecological security of cultivated land and the relationships between them. Then, the temporal and spatial variations of cultivated land system security during 2005-2015 are evaluated and the obstacle factors are diagnosed by using the improved TOPSIS method and disorder degree model. The results showed that: 1) During 2005-2015, the quantitative security and qualitative security of cultivated land showed an increasing trend, and the cultivated land ecological security presented a rising tendency during the first five years while it had a slow downward trend in the following five years. Generally, the cultivated land security was uptrend. In 2015, the area of cultivated land in safe state occupied 90.44% of the total cultivated land area, and the area of cultivated land in very safe state area accounted for 2%. 2) Different counties have different development types and characteristics, while the variation characteristics of cultivated land system security were different in different counties due to the different development types and the characteristics of counties. In the Yuehu District, the cultivated land system security was the lowest, and it declined first and then rose slowly. The cultivated land system security in Yujiang County was in a higher level, and it showed an increasing trend. The cultivated land system security in Guixi County was above the average, and it went down first and then went up. 3) The main obstacle factors that affected the security of the cultivated land system in Yingtan City were soil organic matter content, fertilizer load per unit area, arable land protection capacity, pH, fixed assets investment, irrigation assurance, the area of cultivated land per capita, the level of urbanization, the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP, and pesticides load per unit area.

Key words: cultivated land system security, diagnosis, improvement TOPSIS method, obstacle factors, Yingtan City