基于地块尺度的黑河中游地区农业结构变化及其驱动因素分析——以张掖市为例

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20170502

自然资源学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 386-397.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170502

基于地块尺度的黑河中游地区农业结构变化及其驱动因素分析——以张掖市为例

肖兴媛^1,2, 胡敏悦¹, 李秀彬², 谈明洪^2,*, 赵相伟¹, 郑璐倩²

1. 山东科技大学测绘科学与工程学院,山东青岛 266590;
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101

收稿日期:2017-05-24 修回日期:2017-11-06 出版日期:2018-03-20 发布日期:2018-03-20
通讯作者: *谈明洪（1970- ）,男,江苏涟水人,副研究员,主要从事土地利用与土地覆被变化方向研究。E-mail:tanmh@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:肖兴媛（1977- ）,女,山东泰安人,博士后,硕士生导师,主要从事土地利用覆被变化研究。E-mail: 93798297@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（91325302）; 山东省高等学校科技计划项目（J14LH05）

Analysis on Changes of Agricultural Structure and Its Driving Factors in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River at Plot Scale—A Case Study of Zhangye City

XIAO Xing-yuan^1,2, HU Min-yue¹, LI Xiu-bin², TAN Ming-hong², ZHAO Xiang-wei¹, ZHENG Lu-qian²

1. College of Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2017-05-24 Revised:2017-11-06 Online:2018-03-20 Published:2018-03-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 91325302; Science and Technology Plan Project of Shandong Higher Education Institutions, No. J14LH05.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 黑河中游是我国西北干旱区重要的粮食基地,研究其农业结构变化及其驱动因素对农户种植决策及推动当地农业发展具有一定参考意义。论文以位于黑河中游地区的张掖市为例,基于统计年鉴和农户问卷调查数据,从地块尺度分析了研究区2001—2014年期间农业结构变化,并在定性分析的基础上,从地块与农户两个层面,运用二元Logistic模型及投入-产出法定量分析农业结构变化驱动因素。结果表明：1）研究区作物种植类型趋于多样化。2001年,研究区主要种植作物为小麦、玉米、大麦及“小麦和玉米套作”,其种植地块数占所调查总地块数的81%,2014年种植作物种类增多,且蔬菜、马铃薯、油菜等经济作物种植数量较2001年有所上升。2）由种植小麦为主（占总地块数的31%）转变为种植制种玉米为主（占总地块数的38.7%）;套作转单作。2001年,共有58个套作种植地块,占调查总地块数的22%,其中“小麦和玉米套作”最多,有47个地块;而在2014年,作物套作地块数锐减为2个,“小麦和玉米套作”全部转换为其他单作,其中51%转为制种玉米;水稻种植消失,主要转为普通玉米。3）地块层面上,种植地区的海拔、灌溉定额、河源来水量对农业结构变化影响非常显著（显著水平达到1%）,地下水对农业结构变化影响较为显著（显著水平达到5%）。4）农户层面上,农户作为理性经济人,“收益”是影响其种植行为的最关键因素,其次是政策因素（在5%的水平上显著）,务农劳动力与劳均耕地面积也有一定的驱动作用。

关键词: Logistic模型, 地块尺度, 农业结构变化, 张掖市

Abstract: Since the middle reaches of the Heihe River is an important grain base in the arid area of Northwest China, studying the agricultural structure change and its driving factors in this area has certain reference significance for farmers’ decision-making on planting and promoting the development of local agriculture. However, there are few studies on the change of agricultural structure and its driving factors at the plot scale. Based on the statistical yearbook and the survey on farmers, this paper analyzes the changes of agricultural structure in the study area during 2001-2014. The paper analyzes quantitatively the driving factors of agricultural structure change by using binary Logistic model and input-output method at two levels, household level and plot level. The results showed that: 1) The crop types in the study area tend to diversify. In 2001, the main planting crops in the study area were wheat, maize, barley and wheat-corn relay intercropping, whose number of plots accounted for 81% of the total number of plots. In 2014, the types of planting crops increased and the number of cash crops (vegetables, potatoes, rape) also increased compared with those in 2001. 2) The mainly planting crop in the study area changed from wheat (31% of the total plots) to corn (38.7% of the total plots), and intercropping changed to monoculture. In 2001, there were 58 intercropping plots (accounting for 22% of the total plots), most of which were wheat-corn relay intercropping plots (47 plots). In 2014, there were only two intercropping plots, and wheat-corn relay intercropping plots all converted to monoculture plots, of which 51% plots changed to corn plots. All rice plots turned to maize plots. 3) At the plot level, the elevation of the planting area, the irrigation quota and the water supply from headwaters have significant effects on the change of agricultural structure (significance level is 1%). The impact of groundwater on agricultural structure change is also significant (significance level is 5%). 4) As rational economic men, the most important factor affecting the planting behaviors of farmers is income. Policy factors (at 5% of significance level), agricultural labors and the area of cultivated land per capita also have effects.

Key words: change in agricultural structure, land plot, Logistic model, Zhangye City

中图分类号:

F327

肖兴媛, 胡敏悦, 李秀彬, 谈明洪, 赵相伟, 郑璐倩. 基于地块尺度的黑河中游地区农业结构变化及其驱动因素分析——以张掖市为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(3): 386-397.

XIAO Xing-yuan, HU Min-yue, LI Xiu-bin, TAN Ming-hong, ZHAO Xiang-wei, ZHENG Lu-qian. Analysis on Changes of Agricultural Structure and Its Driving Factors in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River at Plot Scale—A Case Study of Zhangye City[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(3): 386-397.

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基于地块尺度的黑河中游地区农业结构变化及其驱动因素分析——以张掖市为例

Analysis on Changes of Agricultural Structure and Its Driving Factors in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River at Plot Scale—A Case Study of Zhangye City

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