树轮记录的黄河源区过去390 a流量变化

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20160884

PDF(5483 KB)

自然资源学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9) : 1568-1578. DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160884

资源评价

树轮记录的黄河源区过去390 a流量变化

肖丁木^{1, 2, 3, 4}, 黄小梅³, 秦宁生^{3, 5, *}

作者信息 +

Streamflow Reconstruction Based on Tree Ring in the Source Region of Yellow River Region over the Past 390 Years

XIAO Ding-mu^{1, 2, 3, 4}, HUANG Xiao-mei³, QIN Ning-sheng^{3, 5}

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

论文利用采自黄河源区的两个样点的祁连圆柏树轮样本建立了区域树轮宽度年表,分析了树木生长与流量的关系,结果表明1—7月的平均流量与树轮宽度密切相关,相关系数达0.73。由此重建了黄河源区过去390 a来的流量变化,统计检验结果表明,重建方程方差解释量高达53.6%。重建序列大体经历了7个丰水期和10个枯水期。周期分析结果表明,重建序列存在着42、18和2~4 a左右的显著变化周期。区域对比结果表明,重建结果与周边其他基于树轮资料的重建序列的干湿变化有较好的一致性,证明了论文重建序列的准确性。

Abstract

The source region of the Yellow River in the hinterlands of the Tibetan Plateau is the principal headstream of the Yellow River. The ecological environment has deteriorated in recent decades and climate change influences have been observed in the area. Changes in the ecological environment mainly include substantial streamflow reduction, wetland destruction and severe droughts. Therefore, research regarding water resources including river formation and evolution in this area is needed for the preservation of the ecological environment and water supply. It is important to develop new tree-ring chronologies in the source region of the Yellow River in order to recognize streamflow variation in the past. A regional tree-ring width chronology (RC) was developed based on Sabina przewalskii Kom samples at two individual sites in the source region of the Yellow River. Tree-ring samples were prepared, cross-dated and measured following conventional procedures. Statistical analysis showed that the regional tree-ring chronology (RC) was highly correlated (r=0.73) with instrumental streamflow records from January to July at the hydrological stations. Based on the analyses, we reconstructed streamflow records from January to July during 1624-2013. The reconstruction captured 53.6% of the instrumental streamflow variance. In the past 390 years, we identified seven relatively high streamflow periods (1632-1643, 1657-1695, 1751-1764, 1798-1813, 1836-1856, 1886-1914 and 1934-1947) and ten relatively low streamflow periods (1644-1656, 1696-1706, 1708-1720, 1727-1750, 1787-1797, 1814-1835, 1857-1885, 1915-1933, 1952-1968 and 1993-2006). The longest high period is 1657-1695 (39 years), and the longest low period is 1857-1885 (29 years). The MTM analysis suggested the existence of significant change circles with intervals of 42, 18 and 2-4 years. The reconstruction was validated by comparison it with other reconstructions in the surrounding area. The streamflow reconstruction significantly correlates with the constructions in Tongtian River (r=0.51, P<0.001) and the upper Yellow River (r=0.60, P<0.001). Also, the streamflow reconstruction significantly correlates with the precipitation reconstructions in Delingha region (r=0.55, P<0.001) and the southern Tibetan Plateau (r=0.46, P<0.001). these="" three="" areas="" shared="" the="" same="" drought="" periods="" 1650s-1670s="" 1780s-1800s="" 1820s-1830s="" and="" 1920s-1930s="" and="" wet="" periods="" 1840s-1850s="" and="" 1880s-1910s.="" the="" consistency="" and="" correlation="" of="" constructions="" in="" these="" regions="" proved="" the="" accuracy="" of="" the="" reconstruction="" sequence="" in="" this="" article.="">

导出引用

肖丁木, 黄小梅, 秦宁生. 树轮记录的黄河源区过去390 a流量变化[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(9): 1568-1578 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20160884

XIAO Ding-mu, HUANG Xiao-mei, QIN Ning-sheng. Streamflow Reconstruction Based on Tree Ring in the Source Region of Yellow River Region over the Past 390 Years[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2017, 32(9): 1568-1578 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20160884

中图分类号： P333.1

参考文献

[1] 蓝永超, 沈永平, 李州英, 等. 气候变化对黄河河源区水资源系统的影响 [J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2006, 20(6): 57-62. [LAN Y C, SHEN Y P, LI Z Y, et al. Influences of global-warming on water resources system in the riverhead area of the Yellow River. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2006, 20(6): 57-62. ]
[2] 李林, 申红艳, 戴升, 等. 黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势预测 [J]. 地理学报, 2010, 66(9): 1261-1269. [LI L, SHEN H Y, DAI S, et al. Response to climate change and prediction of runoff in the source region of Yellow River. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 66(9): 1261-1269. ]
[3] 王国庆, 王云璋, 康玲玲. 黄河上中游径流对气候变化的敏感性分析 [J]. 应用气象学报, 2002, 13(1): 117-121. [WANG G Q, WANG Y Z, KANG L L. Analysis on the sensitivity of runoff in Yellow River to climate change. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2002, 13(1): 117-121. ]
[4] 蓝永超, 鲁承阳, 喇承芳, 等. 黄河源区气候向暖湿转变的观测事实及其水文响应 [J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(4): 920-928. [LAN Y C, LU C Y, LA C F, et al. The fact of climate shift to warm-humid in the source regions of the Yellow River and its hydrologic response. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(4): 920-928. ]
[5] GOU X, CHEN F, COOK E, et al. Streamflow variations of the Yellow River over the past 593 years in western China reconstructed from treerings [J]. Water Resources Research, 2007, 43(6): 1820-1830.
[6] 刘禹, 杨银科, 蔡秋芳, 等. 以树木年轮宽度资料重建湟水河过去248年来6—7月份河流径流量 [J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2006, 20(6): 69-73. [LIU Y, YANG Y K, CAI Q F, et al. June to July runoff reconstruction for Huangshui River from tree ring width of for the last 248 years. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2006, 20(6): 69-73. ]
[7] 秦宁生, 靳立亚, 时兴合, 等. 利用树轮资料重建通天河流域518 年径流量 [J]. 地理学报, 2004, 59(4): 550-556. [QIN N S, JIN L Y, SHI X H, et al. A 518-year runoff reconstruction of Tongtian River Basin using tree-ring width chronologies. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(4): 550-556. ]
[8] 康兴成, 程国栋, 康尔泗, 等. 利用树轮资料重建黑河近千年来出山口径流量 [J]. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 2002, 32(8): 675-685. [KANG X C, CHENG G D, KANG E S, et al. Runoff reconstruction of Heihe River Basin using tree-ring width chronologies for the last 1 000 years. Science in China Serials D: Earth Sciences, 2002, 32(8): 675-685. ]
[9] 王亚军, 陈发虎, 勾晓华. 黑河230 a以来3~6 月径流的变化 [J]. 冰川冻土, 2004, 26(2): 202-206. [WANG Y J, CHEN F H, GOU X H. March to June runoff of Heihe River since 1770 reconstructed from tree-ring data. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2004, 26(2): 202-206. ]
[10] LIU Y, SUN J, SONG H, et al. Tree-ring hydrologic reconstructions for the Heihe River watershed, western China since AD 1430 [J]. Water Resources, 2010, 44: 2781-2792.
[11] 何友均. 三江源自然保护区森林植物多样性及其保护研究 [M]. 北京: 中国林业出版社, 2008. [HE Y J. Research of Forest Plant Diversity and Protection in the Three-river Source Nature Reserve. Beijing: China Forestry Publishing House, 2008. ]
[12] 蓝永超, 文军, 赵国辉, 等. 黄河河源区径流对气候变化的敏感性分析 [J]. 冰川冻土, 2010, 32(1): 175-182. [LAN Y C, WEN J, ZHAO G H, et al. Rensibility analysis of the runoff in the headwater regions of the Yellow River to climate change. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2010, 32(1): 175-182. ]
[13] 周兴民, 王质彬, 杜庆. 青海植被 [M]. 西宁: 青海人民出版社, 1986. [ZHOU X M, WAN Z B, DU Q. The Vegetation of Qinghai. Xining: Qinghai People’s Press, 1986. ]
[14] HOLMES R L. Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement [J]. Tree-Ring Bulletin, 1983, 43: 69-78.
[15] COOK E R. A Time Series Analysis Approach to Tree-ring Standardization [D]. Tucson: University of Arizona, 1985.
[16] FANG K Y, GOU X H, PETERS K, et al. Removing biological trends from tree-ring series: Testing modified Hugershoff curves [J]. Tree-Ring Research, 2010, 66: 51-59.
[17] BAO G, LIU Y, LIU N. A tree-ring-based reconstruction of the Yimin River annual runoff in the Hulun Buir region, Inner Mongolia, for the past 135 years [J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2012, 57(36): 4765-4775.
[18] FAN Z X, BRAUNING A, CAO K F. Tree-ring based drought reconstruction in the Hengduan Mountains region (China) since A.D. 1655 [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2008, 28: 1879-1887.
[19] ZHANG Q B, CHENG G D, YAO T D, et al. A 2,326-year tree-ring record of climate variability on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2003, 30(14), doi:10.1029/2003GL017425.
[20] 孙卫国, 程炳岩, 李荣. 黄河源区径流量与区域气候变化的多时间尺度相关 [J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(1): 117-127. [SUN W G, CHENG B Y, LI R. Multitime scale correlations between runoff and regional climate variations in the source region of the Yellow River. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(1): 117-127. ]
[21] 邵雪梅, 梁尔源, 黄磊, 等. 柴达木盆地东北部过去1437 a的降水变化重建 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(3): 122-126. [SHAO X M, LIANG E Y, HUANG L, et al. A reconstructed series over the past millennium in the northeastern Qaidam Basin. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 2(3): 122-126. ]
[22] MANN M E, LEES J M. Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series [J]. Climatic Change, 1996, 33(3): 409-445.
[23] GORDON A H, BYRON-SCOTT R A, BYE J A. A note on QBO-SO interaction, the quasi-triennial oscillation and the sunspot cycle [J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1982, 39: 2083-2087.
[24] NAUJOKAT B. An update of the observed Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of stratospheric winds over the tropics [J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1986, 43: 1873-1877.
[25] 梁尔源, 邵雪梅, 黄磊, 等. 中国中西部地区树木年轮对20世纪20年代干旱灾害的指示 [J]. 自然科学进展, 2004, 14(4): 469-474. [LIANG E Y, SHAO X M, HUANG L. The tree-ring recorded drought in 1920s in middle and west China. Progress in Natural Science, 2004, 14(4): 469-474. ]
[26] LI J B, GOU X H, COOK E R, et al. Tree-ring based drought reconstruction for the central Tien Shan Area, Northwest China [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33, L07715, doi:10.1029/2006GL025803.
[27] HUGHES M K, WU X D, SHAO X M, et al. A preliminary reconstruction of rainfall in north-central China since A.D. 1600 from tree-ring density and width [J]. Quaternary Sciences, 1994, 42: 88-99.
[28] DAVI N K, JACOBY G C, CURTIS A, et al. Extension of drought records for central Asian using tree rings: West-central Mongolia [J]. Journal of Climate, 2006, 19(1): 288-299.
[29] 勾晓华, 邓洋, 陈发虎, 等. 黄河上游过去1234年流量的树轮重建与变化特征分析 [J]. 科学通报, 2010, 55(33): 3236-3243. [GOU X H, DENG Y, CHEN F H, et al. Tree ring based streamflow reconstruction for the upper Yellow River over the past 1234 years. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2010, 55(33): 3236-3243. ]
[30] 邵雪梅, 黄磊, 刘洪滨, 等. 树轮记录的青海德令哈地区千年降水变化 [J]. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 2004, 34(2): 145-153. [SHAO X M, HUANG L, LIU H B, et al. Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha, Qinghai. Science in China Serials D: Earth Sciences, 2004, 34(2): 145-153. ]
[31] 刘晶晶. 树轮记录的青藏高原南部过去526年降水变化特征 [J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2014(3): 293-298. [LIU J J. Precipitation variations during the last 526 years inferred from tree-ring widths on the southern Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences Edition), 2014(3): 293-298. ]
[32] 李金建, 邵雪梅, 李媛媛, 等. 树轮宽度记录的松潘地区年平均气温变化 [J]. 科学通报, 2014, 59(15): 1446-1458. [LI J J, SHAO X M, LI Y Y, et al. Change characteristic of reconstructed precipitation in May in Songpan Plateau using Tree-ring. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2014, 59(15): 1446-1458. ]
[33] 邢佩. 青藏高原树轮气候重建与中国东部树种的树轮气候学评价——以青海三江源、西藏昌都和浙江古田山地区为例 [D]. 北京: 中国科学院大学, 2013. [XING P. Climate Reconstruction on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Based on Tree Ring and Dendroclimatological Evaluation of Tree Species in Eastern China—A Case Study in Sangjiangyuan Region of Qinghai, Changdu Prefecture of Tibet and Gutian Mountain of Zhejiang. Beijing: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2013. ]