国内外能源价格对我国能源消耗的综合调节作用比较研究

何凌云, 程怡, 金里程, 钟章奇

自然资源学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1) : 1-16.

PDF(2736 KB)
PDF(2736 KB)
自然资源学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1) : 1-16. DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20141615
资源经济

国内外能源价格对我国能源消耗的综合调节作用比较研究

  • 何凌云1, 程怡1, 金里程2, 钟章奇3
作者信息 +

Comparison of the Regulatory Effects of Domestic and Foreign Energy Prices on Energy Consumption of China

  • HE Ling-yun1, CHENG Yi1, JIN Li-cheng2, ZHONG Zhang-qi3
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

基于1978—2012年国内外能源价格、产业发展以及我国能源消耗的相关数据,通过构建一般调节作用模型和状态空间模型比较了国内外能源价格对我国能源消耗的作用路径以及静态和动态作用效力,结果表明:仅考虑单一路径时,国内外能源价格均难以对我国能源消耗起到有效的调节作用,但综合考虑多种路径时则表现出较强的影响。能源价格的提高通过影响产出总量和产业结构产生了较强的能耗拉动效应,但却通过影响能源效率产生了一定的能耗抑制效应。此外,国内外能源价格的联动性低,价格传导受阻。样本区间内,国内能源价格对我国能源消耗的影响显著大于国外能源价格的作用;后者通过价格路径对我国能源消耗的作用短期内并不显著,长期则表现出了一定的抑制性。总体来看,国内外能源价格关联性越强(价差越小),能源价格提升对于能耗总量的抑制作用越明显;我国能源价格的合理上升有利于节能降耗。

Abstract

Based on the energy prices of China and foreign countries, industry development and energy consumption of China in the period of 1978-2012, this paper analyzes the influen-cing paths, the static and dynamic effect of domestic and foreign energy prices on energy consumption of China through Granger Causality test, regulatory effect model and state space model. Firstly, it is found that there’s no direct causality between China’s energy price and energy consumption, but the former can impact on the latter through influencing output and energy structure. Meanwhile, there’s no significant causality between foreign energy price and the related variables except energy efficiency with a time lag effect. Besides, foreign energy price is the Granger reason of the change of domestic energy price when the time lag is 1. However, increasing the time lag weakens the guiding effect. Secondly, when a single path is taken into consideration, neither of the two prices has effectively influence on China’s energy consumption. However, when considering comprehensive paths, both prices have significant effect on China’s energy consumption. Rising energy price has obvious pulling effect on energy consumption through output and industrial structure on one hand; and has depressing effect on energy consumption through energy efficiency improvement on the other hand. Combining the output, structure, and efficiency paths, we find that the comprehensive energy saving effect of the two energy prices are -0.161 8 and -0.009 1, respectively. It shows that reasonable rising of energy price can reduce energy consumption to some extent. In the sample period, effect of domestic energy price is more significant than that of foreign energy price. The effect of foreign energy price on energy consumption through price transmission is -0.250 9, which indicates that the linkage between the domestic and foreign prices is weak and the price transmission is blocked. Thirdly, the effect of foreign energy price on energy consumption through price transmission is only -0.004 0 in short-term while -1.308 3 in long-term, which indicates a certain depressing effect on energy consumption. Fourthly, the effects of the two energy prices on China’s energy consumption are dynamic. Removing the results contradicted with the theory, the comprehensive effect of the domestic energy price fluctuates between -0.016 and -0.356. Besides, foreign energy price has positive effect on China’s energy consumption in most sample periods, which is inconsistent with the theory. However, through “price-price” path, we find the foreign energy price has energy saving effect to certain extent. The effect fluctuates between -0.065 and -0.038 9 and becomes stable after 2000. Overall, the narrower the spread of domestic and foreign energy prices, the bigger the depressing effect of a rising energy price on energy consumption. Effectively rising energy price is beneficial to energy saving. Our research is important for policy makers to establish effective energy-pricing policies. These policies can improve the linkage between foreign and domestic energy prices and then promote energy conservation.

引用本文

导出引用
何凌云, 程怡, 金里程, 钟章奇. 国内外能源价格对我国能源消耗的综合调节作用比较研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2016, 31(1): 1-16 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20141615
HE Ling-yun, CHENG Yi, JIN Li-cheng, ZHONG Zhang-qi. Comparison of the Regulatory Effects of Domestic and Foreign Energy Prices on Energy Consumption of China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2016, 31(1): 1-16 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20141615
中图分类号: F206    F426.2   

参考文献

[1] AMANO A. Energy prices and CO2 emissions in the 1990s [J]. Journal of Policy Modeling, 1990, 12: 495-510.
[2] MARTINSEN D, KREY V, MARKEWITZ P. Implications of high energy prices for energy system and emissions—The response from an energy model for Germany [J]. Energy Policy, 2007, 35(9): 4504-4515.
[3] LIN B, OUYANG X. A revisit of fossil-fuel subsidies in China: Challenges and opportunities for energy price reform [J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2014, 82(3): 124-134.
[4] BIROL F, KEPPLER J. Price, technology development and the rebound effect [J]. Energy Policy, 2000, 28(6/7): 457-469.
[5] FISHER-VANDEN K, JEFFERSON G. What is driving China’s decline in energy intensity ? [J]. Resource and Energy Economic, 2004, 26(1): 77-97.
[6] WING L. Explaining the declining energy intensity of the US economy [J]. Resource and Energy Economics, 2008, 30(1): 21-49.
[7] YUAN C, LIU S, WU J. The relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in China [J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(1): 197-207.
[8] 柴建, 郭菊娥, 汪寿阳. 能源价格变动对我国节能降耗的影响效应 [J]. 中国人口•资源与环境, 2012, 22(2): 33-40. [CHAI J, GUO J E, WANG S Y. Saving energy and energy price adjustment. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2012, 22(2): 33-40. ]
[9] 田立新, 刘晶. 能源强度研究中能源价格影响的实证分析 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(9):1520-1524. [TIAN L X, LIU J. Empirical analysis of energy prices in the research of the energy intensity. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(9): 1520-1524. ]
[10] FINN M. Perfect competition and the effects of energy price increases on economics activity [J]. Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, 2000, 32(3): 400-416.
[11] 原鹏飞, 吴吉林. 能源价格上涨情景下能源消费与经济波动的综合特征 [J]. 统计研究, 2011(9): 57-65. [YUAN P F, WU J L. The synthetical characteristics of energy consumption and economic fluctuation in the scenes of energy price rising. Statistical Research, 2011(9): 57-65. ]
[12] 何建坤, 张希良. 我国产业结构变化对GDP能源强度上升的影响及趋势分析 [J]. 环境保护, 2005(12): 37-41. [HE J K, ZHANG X L. Analysis on the impact of the structural changes in the manufacturing industry on the rising of intensity of GDP resources and its trend. Environmental Protection, 2005(12): 37-41. ]
[13] KAUFMAN R. The mechanisms for autonomous energy efficiency increases: A cointegration analysis of the US energy/GDP Ratio [J]. The Energy Journal, 2004, 25(1): 63-86.
[14] 刘畅. 中国能源消耗强度变动机制与能源行业周期波动 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2012. [LIU C. Changing Mechanism of Energy Consumption Intensity and Cycle Fluctuation of Energy Industry in China. Beijing: Science Press, 2012. ]
[15] 陈晓毅. 基于分位数回归的我国能源效率影响因素动态研究 [J]. 生态经济, 2012(8): 63-66. [CHEN X Y. A demonstrational analysis of influence factor on China’s energy efficiency based on the quintile regression model. Ecological Economy, 2012(8): 63-66. ]
[16] ADOFO Y, EVANS J, HUNT L. How sensitive to time period sampling is the asymmetric price response specification in energy demand modeling ? [J]. Energy Economics, 2013, 40: 90-109.
[17] 张海云. 我国能源强度与能源价格市场化关系研究 [J]. 未来与发展, 2013(5): 56-60. [ZHANG H Y. Study on the relationship between energy intensity and market-oriented energy price in China. Future and Development, 2013(5): 56-60. ]
[18] 马超群, 佘升翔, 陈彦玲, 等. 中国上海燃料油期货市场信息溢出研究 [J]. 管理科学学报, 2009, 6(3): 92-100. [MA C Q, SHE S X, CHEN Y L, et al. Information spillovers towards fuel-oil futures market in Shanghai. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2009, 6(3): 92-100. ]
[19] 戴毓, 葛金田, 周德群. 中美燃料油期货价格引导研究 [J]. 数理统计与管理, 2011, 3(2): 206-217. [DAI Y, GE J T, ZHOU D Q. Study on leading relations of fuel oil futures prices between China and USA. Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, 2011, 3(2): 206-217. ]
[20] 王世进. 国内外能源价格波动溢出效应研究 [J]. 资源科学, 2013, 35(4): 690-696. [WANG S J. Study on spillover effect of energy price volatility in China and abroad. Resources Science, 2013, 35(4): 690-696. ]
[21] WELSCH H, OCHSEN C. The determinants of aggregate energy use in West Germany: Factor substitution, technological change, and trade [J]. Energy Economics, 2005, 27: 93-111.
[22] 师博. 国际油价波动、能源效率与经济增长 [J]. 经济问题探索, 2007(11): 14-21. [SHI B. Study on the volatility of international oil prices, energy efficiency and economic growth. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2007(11): 14-21. ]
[23] 严云鸿, 易波波. 国际能源价格波动对中国经济的影响 [J]. 社会科学家, 2011(7): 61-65. [YAN Y H, YI B B. Effect of Chinese economy to the volatility of international energy. Social Scientist, 2011(7): 61-65. ]
[24] 刘畅, 孔宪丽, 高铁梅. 中国能源消耗强度变动机制与价格非对称效应研究——基于结构VEC模型的计量分析 [J]. 中国工业经济, 2009(3): 59-70. [LIU C, KONG X L, GAO T M. Research on changing mechanism of energy consumption intensity of China and asymmetric effects of price: The econometric analysis based on structural VEC model. China Industrial Economics, 2009(3): 59-70. ]
[25] 杨继生. 国内外能源相对价格与中国的能源效率 [J]. 经济学家, 2009(4): 90-97. [YANG J S. Chinese and overseas relative energy prices and Chinese energy efficiency. Economist, 2009(4): 90-97. ]
[26] 魏一鸣. 中国能源报告(2011)——能源安全研究 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2011. [WEI Y M. China Energy Report (2011): Energy Safety Research. Beijing: Science Press, 2011. ]
[27] PARKS R. Inflation and relative price variability [J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1978, 86: 79-96.
[28] THORESEN P. Inflation controlled by energy prices [J]. Energy Economics, 1983, 5: 202-206.
[29] 林伯强, 王锋. 能源价格上涨对中国一般价格水平的影响 [J]. 经济研究, 2009(12): 66-80. [LIN B Q, WANG F. The impact of energy price increasing on the general price level of China. Economic Research Journal, 2009(12): 66-80. ]
[30] IRZ X, JYRKI N, LIU X. Determinants of food price inflation in Finland: The role of energy [J]. Energy Policy, 2013, 63(12): 656-663.
[31] 王俊杰, 史丹, 张成. 能源价格对能源效率的影响——基于全球数据的实证分析 [J]. 经济管理, 2012(12): 13-23. [WANG J J, SHI D, ZHANG C. The impact of energy prices on energy efficiency: An empirical study based on global data. Economic Management, 2012(12): 13-23. ]

基金

国家自然科学基金(71203219); 教育部人文社会科学基金(11YJCZH050); 国家留学基金委全额资助出国访学项目(201308320086)

PDF(2736 KB)

1027

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail

段落导航
相关文章

/