论文通过实地调查获得研究数据,分析了农区、 半农半牧区、 纯牧区农户替代生计选择的结果及特征,采用Logistic回归模型对影响农户替代生计选择意愿的因素进行分析。研究得出:①在替代生计的选择上,纯牧区农户主要选择特色产品加工、 做生意、 现代畜牧业,农区和半农半牧区农户主要选择做生意、 外出打工和旅游服务业;②农户对替代生计的选择表现出生计路径依赖性、 区域差异性和多样性特征;③农户对替代生计的选择偏好受生计资本的影响,自然资本、 社会资本、 家庭整体劳动能力、 家庭整体受教育水平、 家庭拥有的牲畜数量、 户主的学历和年龄分别对不同替代生计的选择影响显著。地方政府应深入了解农户选择替代生计的特点和影响因素,根据不同家庭的情况设计相应的转型政策促进农户尽快提高生计能力。

The research on the choice to alternative livelihoods is of great significance to the implementation of the reasonable alternative livelihoods according to herdsmen circumstances. In this paper, basing on the survey in the study area, the results and characteristics of alternative livelihoods choice were analyzed. Then, the Logistic regressive model was set up to the analyze factors affecting the herdsmen's choice to the alternative livelihoods. Results are shown as follows: 1) Alternative livelihood choice and the diversity of choice differ obviously:As to the selection to alternative livelihoods, the herdsmen in pure pastoral areas mainly choose special products processing, business and modern livestock husbandry while the herdsmen in agricultural and agro-pastoral areas mainly choose business, go out to work and tourism services. In the diversity of alternative livelihood choice, the diversity index in pure pastoral areas is the lowest and the agro-pastoral areas is the highest. Farmers in pure pastoral areas mainly select two kinds of alternative livelihoods while farmers in agricultural and agro-pastora areas mainly select five kinds of alternative livelihoods. 2) The choice of alternative livelihoods has strong path dependence. Business has the strongest path dependence on the original livelihood, followed by animal husbandry, working outside and special products processing. 3) The livelihood capitals have influence on herdsmen's choice preferences of alternative livelihoods. Different capital types, such as natural capital, social capital, the overall labors in the family, the education level of family members, the amount of cattle and sheep, the education background and age of the householder, have different significant influences on the choice of different alternative livelihoods. In order to improve herdsmen livelihood level as soon as possible, the local government should further understand the choice characteristics of alternative livelihoods and the factors affecting the livelihoods choice, then make respective policy according to different circumstances.