为研究城市建设用地扩张的驱动力,论文利用1999-2008年全国31个省(市、自治区)的数据,使用计量工具分析了城市建设用地扩张与经济发展、城市人口增加和产业结构调整之间的关系,得到以下主要结论:①全国、东部、中部和西部地区城市建设用地扩张速度都很快,东部地区最快,但增长率近年呈现下降趋势,而中部地区和西部地区增长速度相对较慢;②经济发展、城市人口增加和产业结构调整能够非常好地解释全国及东部、中部和西部地区城市建设用地的扩张,3个变量对城市建设用地扩张均有着正影响,但影响力度存在差异;③逐年回归结果表明经济发展、城市人口增加和产业结构调整对城市建设用地的扩张也同样有着正影响,城市人口增加对城市用地扩张的影响基本保持稳定,且力度大于经济发展和产业结构调整的影响,经济发展因素的影响力度越来越大,产业结构调整的影响力度逐渐减弱。

Urban construction land plays an important role in economic development in China. This study explores the driving forces of urban construction land expansion. Panel data econometric method was used to analyze relevant data of China during the period 1999 to 2008. The results showed that: 1) Urban construction land had been expanded very quickly in East China, Central China, West China and the whole country. The rate of expansion was the highest in East China, and was declining in recent years. But it was relatively slow in Central and West China. 2)Economic development, the increasing urban population and industrial structure adjustment can explain the expansion of the urban construction land of East China, Central China, West China and the whole country very well, those three variables all have positive effects on urban construction land expansion, while the influence strength varies in different regions. 3)Year by year regression results show that: economic development, the increasing urban population and industrial structure adjustment also have positive effects on the urban construction land expansion, which indicates the influence of increasing city's population on urban construction land expansion is stable, while the influence strength of population growth is greater than those of the economic development and industrial structure adjustment, in addition, the effect of the economic development on urban construction land expansion becomes increasingly stronger, while the influence strength of the adjustment of industrial structure on urban construction land expansion becomes increasingly weaker.