关键词: 水资源, 自然支持力, 主成分分析法, 主要驱动因子

Abstract: With Fuyang Area as a case,the main component analysis method is adopted to find out the main driving factor that influences the water resources nature supporting-ability by reducing the dimension of the related indexes influencing the water resources nature supporting-ability in the high dimensional variant space in the premise that the data information is the least.Then,based on the linear relationship between the amount of the water resources(following variant)and its driving force(self-reliant variant) during a certain period in Fuyang area,this paper makes use of the statistical documents to establish a multiple linear regression model of the driving factor of the water resources nature supporting-ability changes.It lastly draws the conclusion that the indexes that influence greatly the water resources nature supporting-ability in Fuyang area are the available water resources amount,surface water resources,groundwater resources,remaining exploitation degree of the water resources and the chemical oxygen demanding amount.These indexes constitute the driving factors of the water resources nature supporting-ability.It can be seen from the calculation results that the water resources nature supporting-ability of Fuyang area is on the whole decreasing because in recent years,the paper making industry has developed too rapidly and the water consumption has been increasing sharply with increasing waste water discharge.Finally,some measures which improve nature supporting-ability of water resource in the area of Fuyang according to the present water resource state are put forward.

Key words: water resources, nature supporting-ability, principal component analysis method, main driving factor