自然资源学报 ›› 2004, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 29-37.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2004.01.004

• 资源利用与保护 • 上一篇    下一篇

科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的情景分析

张永民1, 赵士洞1, P.H.Verburg2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;
    2. Department of Environmental Sciences Wageningen University,P.O.Box37,6700 AA Wageningen,The Netherlands
  • 收稿日期:2003-07-10 修回日期:2003-10-10 出版日期:2004-02-25 发布日期:2004-02-25
  • 作者简介:张永民(1973),男,河南新乡人,博士后,主要从事土地利用和土地覆盖变化方面的研究。
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G1999043404-04);国家自然科学基金项目(40225004)

Scenario analysis of land use change in Horqin Desert and its surrounding area

ZHANG Yong-min1, ZHAO Shi-dong1, P.H.Verburg2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS, Beijing100101,China;
    2. Department of Environmental Sciences,Wageninge n University,P.O.Box37,6700AA Wageningen,The Netherlands
  • Received:2003-07-10 Revised:2003-10-10 Online:2004-02-25 Published:2004-02-25

摘要: 根据科尔沁沙地及其周围地区过去15年(1985~2000年)土地利用的时空动态变化、2000年的土地利用格局以及2010年的土地利用规划数据,构建了模拟研究地区土地利用变化的CLUE-S模型。在该模型的支持下,论文分别对研究地区未来10年(2000~2010年)土地利用变化格局的马尔柯夫情景和规划情景进行了模拟,然后,通过2000年土地利用现状图与2010年情景模拟图的叠加,分析了在以上两种情景下土地利用变化的共同之处及差异。研究结果对完善科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的动态管理具有重要意义。

关键词: 科尔沁沙地, 土地利用变化, CLUE-S模型, 情景分析

Abstract: Horqin desert and its surrounding area(41°17'~45°24' N,116°21'~123°30' E),loca-ted in the eastern part of agro-pas ture transitional zone in northern China,is an area sensitive to environmental change due to transitional location and the high potential for sandy desert-if ication.During the past decades,the rapid expansion of sandy desertification i n this area has greatly accelerated the processes of environmental change,leadi ng to deterioration of the eco-environmental conditions in northern China.Land-use and land-cover change is the center of the interests of the science of gl obal environmental change,and thus has aroused increasing attention of scientis ts worldwide.Based on the understanding to land use dynamics between1985and 2000,land use patterns in2000,and land use planning data for2010, a model,CLUE-S,was implemented for modeling land use change in the Horqin Des ert and its surrounding area.With the help of this CLUE-S model,two scenario s of land use change,one was based on Markov process and the other on land use planning of the government,were explored for the period from2000to2010 .Then,major land use changes were identified for each scenario by overlaying e ach simulated land use map of2010with land use map of2000.Some of the implications of each scenario were analyzed and presented in this paper.The mai n conclusions of the study are drawn as follows.Common land use changes in the period between2000and2010according to the two scenarios will take place along the line which starts from the central part of Jarud Banner turning south westwards,through Ar Horqin Banner,Bairin Left Banner,Bairin Right Banner, Linxi county till the eastern part of Hexigten Banner,then turning southwards t hrough the western part of Chifeng city and ending in the western part of Harqin Banner.The main types of potential land use change include the conversion from grassland to forestland,from cultivated land to forestland and from cultivated land to grassland.Apart from these results that are sim ilar to both scenarios,each scenario also has its own characteristics on land u se change from2000to2010.According to the Markov scenario,conversion f rom grassland to cultivated land will occur a-long the line from the southern part of Bairin Right Banner turning southwards through the east-ern part of Ch ifeng city and Harqin Banner till the eastern part of Ningcheng county.This ind i-cates that if land use change from1985to2000can be viewed as a Markov process and the changing trend will continue in the following10years,it is m ostly likely that some grassland on both sides of the above line will be cultiv ated.In addition,the same conversion will also occur in some local areas in the central and eastern parts of the study area.Furthermore,the cultivation o f grassland may be a potential disturbance to local en vironment and great atte ntion should be tak-en to by government.According to the scenario representing planned changes,three major land use changes:from un-sed land to forestland ,from cultivated land to forestland and from unused land to grassland,will tak e place in central and eastern parts of the study area.This shows that it will be necessary to plant trees or grass in some seriously degraded areas of Horq in Desert to complete the planned task of land use.It is difficult to implement this engineering project of revegetation from the view point of ecology.The study suggests that the land-use planning from1997to2010should be discu ssed again due to lack of ecological considerations.

Key words: Horqin Desert, l and use change, CLUE-S model, scenario analysis