关键词: 人口, 粮食, 水土资源, 灰色系统, 回归分析, 供需平衡

Abstract: Population, food and the utilization of water and land resources are important problems in the economic development of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. This paper analyses the present situation of these problems and by applying the Grey System Theory and regressive analysis, bulids a forecasting model of population and food. According to the model, a prediction of the population and food of the region in 2000 has been made. After making a balance analysis between supply and demand of food under Various conditions of the water and land resources in 2000, it points out that the region'sfood production would be able not only to be-self-sufficient but also to provide a certain amount of marketable grain, if we fully utilize the water resource of the Yellow River, enlargel the irrigated land areas, and adopt new farming technigues. At the end of the paper, the main ways to solve the problems of food and to prevent the deterioration of ecosystem and environment have been suggested.

Key words: population, food, the land and water resources, grey system theory, regressive analysis, balance between supply and demand