水权交易机制对农业用水效率的影响及效应分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20221217

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国水权交易市场尚处于发展初期，其农业节水的实际效果有待检验。在测算2011—2020年中国30个省（市、自治区）农业用水效率的基础上，基于准自然实验的思路，运用空间双重差分法实证评估了水权交易机制对农业用水效率的定量影响，并进一步从理论和实证角度探究了水权交易机制对农业节水的影响机制与具体作用路径。研究发现：水权交易机制对农业用水效率具有显著的提升作用，这一结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立，且水权交易机制的政策效应具有明显的地区异质性，中部地区的政策效应最大，东部地区次之，西部地区最小；水权交易机制不仅有助于试点省份农业节水目标的实现，而且能够通过政策溢出效应同时提升周边地区的农业用水效率；技术创新和要素流动是水权交易机制发挥农业节水效应的主要路径，且一三产业之间的水要素流动对农业用水效率的促进作用更大。

关键词: 水权交易机制, 农业用水效率, 空间双重差分法, 中介效应模型

Abstract:

As China's water rights trading market is still in the early stages of development, the actual effect needs to be tested. Based on the data of agricultural water use efficiency from 2011 to 2020 in China and the method of quasi-natural experiments the spatial difference-in-difference method was adopted to evaluate the quantitative impact of water rights trading mechanism on agricultural water use efficiency. Moreover, the theoretic mechanism and specific action path of agricultural water saving effect of water rights trading mechanism can be clarified. The results show that the water rights trading mechanism has a significant effect on improvement of the agricultural water use efficiency of the pilot provinces, and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests. The water rights trading mechanism shows obvious regional heterogeneity, with the largest effect in the central region, followed by the eastern and the western region. The water rights trading mechanism not only contributes to agricultural water saving goals in the pilot provinces, but also improves agricultural water use efficiency in surrounding areas through policy spillover effects. Technological innovation and factor flow are the main paths in which the water rights trading mechanism exerts the agricultural water saving effect, and the flow of water elements between the primary and tertiary industries has a greater role in promoting agricultural water use efficiency.

Key words: water rights trading mechanism, agricultural water use efficiency, spatial difference-in-difference method, mediating effect model

秦腾, 佟金萍, 支彦玲. 水权交易机制对农业用水效率的影响及效应分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(12): 3282-3296.

QIN Teng, TONG Jin-ping, ZHI Yan-ling. Influence and effect of water rights trading mechanism on agricultural water use efficiency[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(12): 3282-3296.

图/表 8

图1

表1

普通面板双重差分回归结果

变量	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）
$t r e a t e d i × t i m e t$	-0.089^** (-2.33)	-0.032 (-0.9)	-0.045 (-1.26)	-0.029 (-0.78)
rfal			-0.003^* (-1.72)	0.005 (1.33)
wabu			-0.009 (-1.57)	0.027 (1.16)
pstr			-0.025 (-1.05)	-0.06^* (-1.77)
pergdp			0.008 (0.59)	0.06 (1.09)
fsup			-0.006 (-0.92)	-0.016 (-1.56)
ircon			0.002^* (1.78)	-0.002 (-1.19)
_cons	0.41^*** (29.4)	0.396^*** (40.04)	0.63^*** (4.86)	0.622^** (2.2)
时间固定效应	NO	YES	NO	YES
省份固定效应	YES	YES	YES	YES
N/个	270	270	270	270

表1

表2

图2

表3

空间双重差分回归结果

变量	SAR		SEM		SARAR
变量	（5）	（6）	（7）	（8）	（9）	（10）
$t r e a t e d i × t i m e t$	0.084^*** (4.15)	0.077^*** (3.85)	0.068^*** (3.39)	0.062^*** (3.07)	0.054^*** (2.79)	0.036^** (2.53)
rfal		0.002^* (1.91)		0.003^* (1.95)		0.001^* (1.92)
wabu		-0.02^** (-2.46)		-0.002^** (-2.32)		-0.03^** (-2.45)
pstr		-0.097^*** （-2.98）		-0.106^*** (-3.08)		-0.008 (-1.32)
pergdp		0.147^*** (9.38)		0.158^*** (9.26)		0.122^*** (5.28)
fsup		0.002^** (2.02)		-0.011^** (-2.13)		0.008^* (1.95)
ircon		0.007^*** (3.69)		003^*** (3.13)		0.01^*** (4.05)
$λ$	0.508^*** (9.47)	0.422^*** (6.61)			0.791^*** (9.87)	0.788^*** (11.21)
$ρ$			0.516^*** (9.45)	0.537^*** (7.26)	0.488^** (2.45)	0.783^*** (6.13)
R²	0.493	0.612	0.488	0.58	0.214	0.349
LogL	124.148	133.418	123.614	128.373	90.018	102.343
LR test	39.82^***	41.11^***	42.29^***	47.92^***
N/个	270	270	270	270	270	270

表3

表4

稳健性检验结果

变量	2012—2018年（11）	被解释变量取对数（12）	提前1年（13）	提前2年（14）	PSM-DID （15）
$t r e a t e d i × t i m e t$	0.045^** （2.57）	0.172^** (2.46)	0.069 (1.42)	0.04 (0.66)	0.071^*** (3.29)
控制变量	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
$λ$	0.344^*** (4.28)	0.574^*** (10.8)	0.426^*** (6.68)	0.432^*** (6.81)	0.451^*** (7.36)
R²	0.737	0.786	0.417	0.412	0.658
LogL	180.253	194.52	118.145	117.354	142.738
N/个	270	270	270	270	270

表4

表5

地区异质性下的回归结果

变量	东部		中部		西部
变量	（16）	（17）	（18）	（19）	（20）	（21）
$t r e a t e d i × t i m e t$	0.085^** （2.29）	0.068^** (2.01)	0.108^*** (3.14)	0.094^*** (2.79)	0.034^** (2.24)	0.022^** (2.06)
控制变量	NO	YES	NO	YES	NO	YES
$λ$	0.487^*** (6.33)	0.272^** (2.54)	0.212^** (2.52)	0.153^** (2.05)	0.386^*** (6.1)	0.309^*** (3.21)
R²	0.408	0.598	0.389	0.436	0.459	0.612
LogL	26.6159	40.0292	42.1683	47.2419	46.4284	51.3095
N/个	110	110	80	80	110	110

表5

表6

水权交易机制影响农业用水效率的作用路径

变量	agrieff （22）	tech （23）	fac1 （24）	fac2 （25）	fac3 （26）	agrieff （27）	agrieff （28）	agrieff （29）	agrieff （30）
$t r e a t e d i × t i m e t$	0.079^*** (3.85)	3.44^** (3.73)	0.064^** (2.44)	0.014^** (2.52)	0.016^** (2.27)	0.053^** (2.29)	0.068^** (2.48)	0.067^** (2.43)	0.064^** (2.37)
tech						0.016^* (1.93)
fac1							0.016 (1.35)
fac2								0.124^** (2.03)
fac3									0.298^*** (3.66)
控制变量	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
$λ$	0.422^*** (6.61)	0.476^** (7.96)	0.07^* (0.82)	0.095 (0.99)	0.213^*** (2.88)	0.325^*** (4.97)	0.418^*** (6.45)	0.424^*** (6.64)	0.42^*** (6.59)
R²	0.617	0.605	0.356	0.887	0.872	0.643	0.622	0.64	0.684
LogL	137.418	132.439	103.382	265.634	258.742	141.568	138.794	141.012	146.437
N/个	270	270	270	270	270	270	270	270	270

表6

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检验	Moran's I	LM-lag	Robust LM-Lag	LM-error	Robust LM-error
统计量	1.00^***	43.46^***	37.63^***	39.43^***	35.36^***
概率值	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000