中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本评估——基于Meta分析方法

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20221213

自然资源学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (12): 3217-3233.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20221213

中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本评估——基于Meta分析方法

许骞骞¹(), 曹先磊², 孙婷¹, 朱颖¹, 吴伟光¹^,³^,⁴()

1．浙江农林大学经济管理学院，杭州 311300
2．山西财经大学国际贸易学院，太原 030006
3．浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院，杭州 311300
4．浙江农林大学生态文明与碳中和研究院，杭州 311300

收稿日期:2021-12-12 修回日期:2022-03-23 出版日期:2022-12-28 发布日期:2022-12-13
通讯作者: 吴伟光（1972- ），男，浙江缙云人，博士，教授，博士生导师，研究方向为资源与环境经济学。E-mail: wuwgccap@126.com
作者简介:许骞骞（1991- ），女，河南周口人，博士研究生，研究方向为林业经济理论与政策。E-mail: 1161189926@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71873126);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LZ19G030001);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(21YJC790003);山西省科技战略研究专项项目(202104031402076)

Assessment of forest carbon sequestration potential and the cost of increasing carbon sequestration in China: Based on meta-analysis method

XU Qian-qian¹(), CAO Xian-lei², SUN Ting¹, ZHU Ying¹, WU Wei-guang¹^,³^,⁴()

1. College of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Agriculture & Forestry University, Hangzhou 311300, China
2. Faculty of International Trade, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China
3. Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang Agriculture & Forestry University, Hangzhou 311300, China
4. Institute of Ecological Civilization & Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Zhejiang Agriculture & Forestry University, Hangzhou 311300, China

Received:2021-12-12 Revised:2022-03-23 Online:2022-12-28 Published:2022-12-13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

准确评估中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本的经济可行性，是科学制定碳中和林业行动方案的基础。然而针对中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本的不同结果差异明显，可靠性需要进一步验证。为此，基于相关文献，采用Meta分析方法，对中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本及其导致差异的原因展开评估。研究表明：（1）中国森林碳汇量呈现不断增长的态势，但不同研究对森林碳汇潜力测度结果存在较大差异。（2）中国森林增汇的平均成本为220.45元/t CO_2e（区间值为3.9~1457.02元/t CO_2e），与工业减排成本相比，中国森林增汇更具有经济可行性，但波动幅度较大。（3）评估方法采用、碳库数量选择等因素是导致已有森林碳汇潜力文献估计结果差异的关键因素；森林增汇成本差异则主要受碳汇成本测度研究方法、成本收益数据来源等因素影响。（4）中国森林增汇对碳中和的贡献将会持续增加。基于研究结果，提出进一步深化森林碳汇潜力与成本测算相关研究等方面的政策建议。

关键词: 森林碳汇潜力, 森林增汇成本, Meta分析, 碳中和

Abstract:

Accurately assessing China's forest carbon sequestration potential and the cost of increasing carbon sequestration serves as the basis for carbon neutrality forestry action plans and forestry sequestration policies. In spite of the fact that there have been numerous studies conducted on the potential for forest carbon sequestration in China, as well as the costs associated with increasing carbon sequestration, the results are very different, and the reliability of the research results needs further verification. In this article, we review the research literature on China's forest carbon sequestration potential and the cost of increasing carbon sequestration. We use meta-analytical techniques to conduct a comprehensive and systematic assessment, as well as the reasons for these differences. The results indicated that: (1) China's forest carbon sequestration shows a trend of continuous growth. Nevertheless, the results of measuring forest carbon sequestration potential in different studies are quite diverse. (2) In China, the average cost for increasing forest carbon sequestration is 220.45 yuan/t CO_2e (range value: 3.9-1457.02 yuan/t CO_2e). Compared with the cost of industrial emission reduction, increasing forest carbon sequestration is more economically feasible, while the range of fluctuation is much larger. (3) It has been found that the factors responsible for the variation in estimation results of forest carbon sequestration potential in existing literature include assessment methods, carbon pool quantity, different sources of measurement micro parameters, forest resource structure, and spatial heterogeneity within forest carbon sequestration measurements. Forest carbon sequestration costs are primarily influenced by the research methods of carbon sequestration cost measurement, the source of cost-benefit data, the selection of cost-benefit indicators, and the characteristics of the evaluation object. (4) The contribution of China's forest to carbon neutrality is likely to continue to increase. Furthermore, based on the results, policies were proposed to further deepen the relevant research on the potential and cost calculation of forest carbon sequestration.

Key words: forest carbon sequestration potential, forest carbon sequestration cost, meta analysis, carbon neutrality

许骞骞, 曹先磊, 孙婷, 朱颖, 吴伟光. 中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本评估——基于Meta分析方法[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(12): 3217-3233.

XU Qian-qian, CAO Xian-lei, SUN Ting, ZHU Ying, WU Wei-guang. Assessment of forest carbon sequestration potential and the cost of increasing carbon sequestration in China: Based on meta-analysis method[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(12): 3217-3233.

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变量名称	变量描述	均值	标准差
因变量
森林碳汇量	数值型变量，单位：亿t（取自然对数）	9.233	0.421
自变量
（1）评估方法
社会学分析方法	对照组	0.286	0.453
样地勘测法	如果使用的方法是样地勘测法，取值为1，否则为0	0.914	0.281
微气象学法	如果使用的方法是微气象学法，取值为1，否则为0	0.040	0.197
（2）碳库选择情况
碳库个数	数值型变量，单位：个	1.543	0.945
（3）数据来源与参数选择
1）森林资源基础数据
国际数据库	对照组	0.103	0.305
国内数据库	如果仅利用国内数据库，取值为1，否则为0	0.926	0.263
2）碳汇测度参数数据
一手数据	对照组	0.097	0.297
二手数据	如果仅利用二手数据，取值为1，否则为0	0.377	0.486
（4）空间特征
全国尺度（即不分区）	对照组	0.714	0.453
分林区	如果分林区评估，取值为1，否则为0	0.103	0.305
分省份	如果分省份，取值为1，否则为0	0.229	0.421
（5）期刊特征
期刊论文	如果文献来源为期刊论文，取值为1，否则为0	0.971	0.167
（6）评估时段
估算年份	数值型变量，单位：年	2017.566	15.953

变量名称	变量描述	均值	标准差
因变量
森林增汇成本	数值型变量，单位：元/t CO_2e（取自然对数）	4.77	1.15
自变量
（1）成本收益构成
纳入成本指标数量	数值型变量，单位：个	2.691	1.196
纳入收益指标数量	数值型变量，单位：个	1.094	1.035
（2）研究方法特征
重置成本法	对照组	0.027	0.162
Benitez模型法	如果使用的方法是Benitez 模型法，取值为1，否则为0	0.423	0.496
造林成本法	如果使用的方法是造林成本法，取值为1，否则为0	0.550	0.499
（3）数据来源
二手数据	对照组	0.107	0.312
一手数据	如果仅利用一手数据，取值为1，否则为0	0.255	0.437
一手二手数据兼用	如果一手二手数据兼用，取值为1，否则为0	0.638	0.482
（4）研究对象特征
① 增汇技术
森林经营增汇	对照组	0.067	0.251
造林再造林增汇	若增汇技术指造林再造林增汇，取值为1，否则为0	0.933	0.251
② 林分类型
是否为混交林	若林分类型为混交林，取值为1，否则为0	0.302	0.461
③ 项目类型
是否为碳汇交易项目	若为专门的碳汇交易项目，取值为1，否则为0	0.376	0.486
（5）文献特征
期刊论文	如果文献来源为期刊论文，取值为1，否则为0	0.826	0.381
（6）评估时段
估计年份	数值型变量，单位：年	2013.93	4.70

变量	系数	标准误	95%置信区间
变量	系数	标准误	下限	上限
研究方法
样地勘测法	-0.1469^***	0.0396	-0.2252	-0.0685
微气象学法	-0.2204^***	0.0585	-0.3360	-0.1048
研究对象特征
碳库个数	0.2159^***	0.0102	0.1957	0.2361
研究数据特征
国内数据库	0.2490^***	0.0846	0.0817	0.4162
二手数据	0.0124	0.0467	-0.0800	0.1047
计量区域特征
分林区	0.3814^***	0.0575	0.2677	0.4952
分省份	-0.0732^*	0.0400	-0.1522	0.0059
期刊特征
期刊论文	-0.6060^***	0.0898	-0.7836	-0.4285
评估时段
估计年份	0.0163^***	0.0010	0.0143	0.0183
常数项	-23.5496^***	2.0648	-27.6318	-19.4674
R²	0.8766	—	—	—
F检验	130.86^***	—	—	—

林业增汇成本				不同技术增汇成本			不同林分增汇成本			不同项目增汇成本
最小值	最大值	平均值		造林再造林	加强森林经营		纯林	混交林		CCER机制	CDM机制	普通造林
3.90	1457.04	220.45		213.60	65.49		175.00	325.49		175.06	40.81	253.6

变量	系数	标准误	95%置信区间
变量	系数	标准误	下限	上限
成本收益核实范围
纳入成本指标数量	0.1831^**	0.0910	0.0033	0.3630
纳入收益指标数量	-0.2945^**	0.1406	-0.5724	-0.0165
研究方法
Benitez模型法	1.3301^***	0.2200	0.8953	1.7649
造林成本法	0.0568	0.1883	-0.3153	0.4289
研究数据特征
一手数据	1.3915^***	0.3113	0.7761	2.0068
一手二手数据兼用	0.7270^**	0.3086	0.1170	1.3370
研究对象特征
增汇技术	-0.0219	0.1520	-0.3223	0.2784
林分类型	0.1251	0.2264	-0.3224	0.5727
项目类型	-0.5618^**	0.2668	-1.0892	-0.03440
期刊特征
期刊论文	-1.0348^***	0.3065	-1.6406	-0.4290
评估时段
估计年份	0.0049	0.0206	-0.0358	0.0456
常数项	-5.6804	41.4801	-87.6688	76.3081
R²	0.7018	—	—	—
F检验	41.55^***	—	—	—

中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本评估——基于Meta分析方法

Assessment of forest carbon sequestration potential and the cost of increasing carbon sequestration in China: Based on meta-analysis method

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