中国三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展区域差异与分布动态及影响因素

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220409

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

考察中国海洋三大经济圈海洋经济发展区域差异,探究其分布动态演进规律,识别其空间非均衡的影响因素及空间溢出效应,为“十四五”期间优化海洋经济发展空间布局、推动区域海洋经济协同均衡发展提供决策参考。利用Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法考察三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展区域相对差异的程度、来源及演变态势,在此基础上,进一步应用Kernel密度估计方法刻画其绝对差异的分布动态演进过程,并将空间效应纳入研究框架,应用空间计量分析方法识别海洋经济发展空间非均衡的影响因素及空间溢出效应。研究发现：三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展均呈现稳定上升态势,但三者之间存在显著的分级现象;三大海洋经济圈空间非均衡程度显著,超变密度是造成三大海洋经济圈整体区域差异的主要来源;三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展水平“极化效应”显著,呈现不同极化特征和分布延展性;三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展存在显著的空间依赖性,总体表现为空间正相关。

关键词: 三大海洋经济圈, 区域差异, 分布动态, 影响因素, 空间溢出效应

Abstract:

This paper examines the spatial differentiation characteristics and distribution dynamics of marine economic development in China's three major marine economic circles and identifies the influencing factors of its spatial disequilibrium and spatial spillover, which can provide decision-making reference for optimizing the spatial layout of marine economic development and promoting the coordinated and balanced development of regional marine economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025). We use Gagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method to investigate the degree, source and evolution trend of regional relative differences in marine economic development in the three marine economic circles (hereafter three circles). The kernel density estimation method is further used to describe the distribution dynamic evolution process of absolute difference. And we apply spatial econometric analysis to identify the key factors of marine economic development and spatial spillover effects. The results show that: (1) The development level of marine economy in the three circles has shown a steady upward trend, however, there is a significant differentiation among the three. The overall development level of marine economy shows a spatial pattern of eastern circle > northern circle > southern circle. (2) There is a significant spatial disequilibrium degree of the three circles, with a rising fluctuation trend and a deeping regional imbalance. The degree of regional difference between the southern and northern circles is the largest, and the degree of regional difference in the southern circle is the first among the three circles. The overall difference is mainly due to the cross overlapping effect between groups, and the contribution of intra-group difference is higher than that of inter-group difference. (3) The "polarization effect" of the marine economic development level of the three circles is significant, which presents different types of polarization trends. The three major circles as a whole and the northern circle have gradually strengthened from polarization to multipolar differentiation. The spatial agglomeration effect of the eastern circle is enhanced. The southern circle has always shown a multi-level differentiation trend. (4) There is significant spatial dependence in the development of marine economy in the three circles, and the overall performance is characterized by positive spatial correlation. Capital, labor force, innovation driven, marketization and opening-up have positive regional spillover effect, while environmental regulation has negative regional spillover effect. Capital, labor force, innovation-driven force and marketization have significant positive interregional spillover effects, while environmental regulation and opening-up have no significant interregional spillover effects.

Key words: three major marine economic circles, region differentiation, distribution dynamics, influencing factor, spatial spillover effects

李旭辉, 何金玉, 严晗. 中国三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展区域差异与分布动态及影响因素[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(4): 966-984.

LI Xu-hui, HE Jin-yu, YAN Han. Study on regional differentiation, distribution dynamics and influencing factors of marine economic development in three major marine economic circles of China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(4): 966-984.

图/表 11

图1

表1

图2

表2

图3

图4

图5

表3

表4

表5

表6

基于固定效应的空间杜宾模型空间效应分解

	变量	三大海洋经济圈		北部海洋经济圈		东部海洋经济圈		南部海洋经济圈
	变量	系数	z值	系数	z值	系数	z值	系数	z值
直接效应	cap	0.08^***	-7.9	0.11^***	5.04	0.07^***	6.59	0.09^**	2.50
	lab	48.29^***	-8.9	40.48^***	3.29	14.65^*	1.93	43.30^***	3.73
	innov	2028.71^***	-3.6	2783.4^**	2.15	-1038.17	-1.32	2905.64^***	2.64
	env	-57.95	-0.09	506.43	0.43	88.91	0.11	3101.87^**	2.36
	mar	390.34^***	-4.0	583.14^***	3.68	19.42	0.13	459.72^***	2.61
	open	0.18^*	-1.8	1.3^**	2.44	0.22^**	2.27	0.08	0.52
间接效应	cap	0.04^**	-2.3	-0.5^***	-3.05	0.06^***	2.90	0.06	1.36
	lab	-48.53^***	-4.54	-18.75^***	-2.66	10.24^*	1.95	-77.80^***	-3.08
	innov	873.12^**	-2.2	-1315.64^*	-1.85	-854.07	-1.12	1865.51	1.31
	env	-31.92	-0.10	-2671.38^*	-1.71	558.46	0.40	5020.93^*	1.81
	mar	168.58^**	-2.2	-274.19^**	-2.55	3.66	0.03	281.28	1.46
	open	0.09	-1.2	-0.59^**	-2.11	-0.05	-0.29	0.06	0.49
总效应	cap	0.12^***	5.80	0.06^***	6.64	0.13^***	4.39	0.15^**	2.05
	lab	-0.23	-0.02	21.73^***	3.21	24.90^**	1.99	-34.51	-1.16
	innov	2901.89^***	3.67	1467.76^**	2.28	-1892.24	-1.23	4771.15^**	2.02
	env	-89.89	-0.10	-2164.95^**	-2.26	647.38	0.31	8122.79^**	2.11
	mar	558.89^***	3.98	308.95^***	4.55	23.08	0.09	741.01^**	2.23
	open	0.27^*	1.65	0.68^**	2.47	0.17	0.70	0.14	0.52
$ρ$		0.33^***(3.28)		-0.60^***(-5.20)		0.54^***(6.30)		0.43^***(3.00)
N/个		121		44		33		44
Sqrt-R		0.9309		0.8850		0.9802		0.9680
Log-L		-915.798		-333.3944		-221.0237		-318.9591

表6

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	2008年	2018年
第一等级	山东、广东、上海	山东、广东、上海
第二等级	浙江、福建	江苏、浙江、福建
第三等级	辽宁、天津、河北、江苏	辽宁、天津
第四等级	广西、海南	河北、广西、海南

年份	总体差异	组内差异			组间差异			贡献率/%
年份	总体差异	1	2	3	2→1	3→1	3→2	Gw	Gnb	Gt
2008	0.3688	0.2583	0.2525	0.4974	0.2850	0.4410	0.4266	30.37	22.52	47.11
2009	0.3521	0.2727	0.1934	0.4805	0.2711	0.4336	0.3972	30.18	24.56	45.26
2010	0.3632	0.2810	0.1863	0.4962	0.2715	0.4497	0.4109	30.35	18.57	51.08
2011	0.3701	0.3312	0.0961	0.4958	0.2941	0.4669	0.3970	29.81	13.87	56.32
2012	0.3675	0.3275	0.0881	0.5028	0.2836	0.4653	0.4007	29.85	14.89	55.26
2013	0.3518	0.2274	0.0145	0.4477	0.1919	0.4920	0.4441	26.32	18.10	55.58
2014	0.3578	0.3152	0.0522	0.4996	0.2692	0.4566	0.3998	29.46	13.88	56.66
2015	0.3494	0.3126	0.0560	0.4881	0.2553	0.4458	0.3876	30.07	11.95	57.98
2016	0.3594	0.3233	0.0313	0.4962	0.2605	0.4592	0.3954	30.17	5.24	64.59
2017	0.3741	0.3508	0.0262	0.4889	0.2995	0.4728	0.3970	29.67	5.06	65.26
2018	0.3940	0.3815	0.0279	0.4855	0.3521	0.4938	0.3999	28.97	10.96	60.07

全国	分布位置	主峰分布形态	分布延展性	极化趋势
整体	右移	波峰下降,宽度扩大	右拖尾,延展拓宽	多极化趋势
北部海洋经济圈	右移	波峰下降,宽度扩大	右拖尾,延展拓宽	多极化趋势
东部海洋经济圈	右移	波峰上升,宽度缩小	右拖尾,延展拓宽	无极化趋势
南部海洋经济圈	右移	波峰下降,宽度扩大	右拖尾,延展拓宽	多极化趋势

年份	Moran's I	P值	年份	Moran's I	P值
2008	0.405	0.005	2014	0.467	0.001
2009	0.456	0.003	2015	0.467	0.001
2010	0.453	0.002	2016	0.445	0.002
2011	0.470	0.002	2017	0.435	0.002
2012	0.468	0.002	2018	0.415	0.003
2013	0.406	0.004

检验方法	统计量	P值	原假设
Hausman	43.42	0.000	随机效应优于固定效应
LM-err	0.050	0.822
Robust LM-err	11.485	0.001
LM-lag	11.483	0.001
Robust LM-lag	22.918	0.000
LR	60.39	0.000	SDM简化为SAR
LR	34.56	0.000	SDM简化为SEM