自然资源学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 966-984.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20220409
收稿日期:
2021-08-02
修回日期:
2021-12-03
出版日期:
2022-04-28
发布日期:
2022-06-28
作者简介:
李旭辉(1981- ),男,山东烟台人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为区域经济。E-mail: xhliac@163.com
基金资助:
LI Xu-hui1(), HE Jin-yu2, YAN Han3
Received:
2021-08-02
Revised:
2021-12-03
Online:
2022-04-28
Published:
2022-06-28
摘要:
考察中国海洋三大经济圈海洋经济发展区域差异,探究其分布动态演进规律,识别其空间非均衡的影响因素及空间溢出效应,为“十四五”期间优化海洋经济发展空间布局、推动区域海洋经济协同均衡发展提供决策参考。利用Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法考察三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展区域相对差异的程度、来源及演变态势,在此基础上,进一步应用Kernel密度估计方法刻画其绝对差异的分布动态演进过程,并将空间效应纳入研究框架,应用空间计量分析方法识别海洋经济发展空间非均衡的影响因素及空间溢出效应。研究发现:三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展均呈现稳定上升态势,但三者之间存在显著的分级现象;三大海洋经济圈空间非均衡程度显著,超变密度是造成三大海洋经济圈整体区域差异的主要来源;三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展水平“极化效应”显著,呈现不同极化特征和分布延展性;三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展存在显著的空间依赖性,总体表现为空间正相关。
李旭辉, 何金玉, 严晗. 中国三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展区域差异与分布动态及影响因素[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(4): 966-984.
LI Xu-hui, HE Jin-yu, YAN Han. Study on regional differentiation, distribution dynamics and influencing factors of marine economic development in three major marine economic circles of China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(4): 966-984.
表2
Dagum基尼系数及其分解结果
年份 | 总体差异 | 组内差异 | 组间差异 | 贡献率/% | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 2→1 | 3→1 | 3→2 | Gw | Gnb | Gt | ||||
2008 | 0.3688 | 0.2583 | 0.2525 | 0.4974 | 0.2850 | 0.4410 | 0.4266 | 30.37 | 22.52 | 47.11 | ||
2009 | 0.3521 | 0.2727 | 0.1934 | 0.4805 | 0.2711 | 0.4336 | 0.3972 | 30.18 | 24.56 | 45.26 | ||
2010 | 0.3632 | 0.2810 | 0.1863 | 0.4962 | 0.2715 | 0.4497 | 0.4109 | 30.35 | 18.57 | 51.08 | ||
2011 | 0.3701 | 0.3312 | 0.0961 | 0.4958 | 0.2941 | 0.4669 | 0.3970 | 29.81 | 13.87 | 56.32 | ||
2012 | 0.3675 | 0.3275 | 0.0881 | 0.5028 | 0.2836 | 0.4653 | 0.4007 | 29.85 | 14.89 | 55.26 | ||
2013 | 0.3518 | 0.2274 | 0.0145 | 0.4477 | 0.1919 | 0.4920 | 0.4441 | 26.32 | 18.10 | 55.58 | ||
2014 | 0.3578 | 0.3152 | 0.0522 | 0.4996 | 0.2692 | 0.4566 | 0.3998 | 29.46 | 13.88 | 56.66 | ||
2015 | 0.3494 | 0.3126 | 0.0560 | 0.4881 | 0.2553 | 0.4458 | 0.3876 | 30.07 | 11.95 | 57.98 | ||
2016 | 0.3594 | 0.3233 | 0.0313 | 0.4962 | 0.2605 | 0.4592 | 0.3954 | 30.17 | 5.24 | 64.59 | ||
2017 | 0.3741 | 0.3508 | 0.0262 | 0.4889 | 0.2995 | 0.4728 | 0.3970 | 29.67 | 5.06 | 65.26 | ||
2018 | 0.3940 | 0.3815 | 0.0279 | 0.4855 | 0.3521 | 0.4938 | 0.3999 | 28.97 | 10.96 | 60.07 |
表6
基于固定效应的空间杜宾模型空间效应分解
变量 | 三大海洋经济圈 | 北部海洋经济圈 | 东部海洋经济圈 | 南部海洋经济圈 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数 | z值 | 系数 | z值 | 系数 | z值 | 系数 | z值 | |||||
直接效应 | cap | 0.08*** | -7.9 | 0.11*** | 5.04 | 0.07*** | 6.59 | 0.09** | 2.50 | |||
lab | 48.29*** | -8.9 | 40.48*** | 3.29 | 14.65* | 1.93 | 43.30*** | 3.73 | ||||
innov | 2028.71*** | -3.6 | 2783.4** | 2.15 | -1038.17 | -1.32 | 2905.64*** | 2.64 | ||||
env | -57.95 | -0.09 | 506.43 | 0.43 | 88.91 | 0.11 | 3101.87** | 2.36 | ||||
mar | 390.34*** | -4.0 | 583.14*** | 3.68 | 19.42 | 0.13 | 459.72*** | 2.61 | ||||
open | 0.18* | -1.8 | 1.3** | 2.44 | 0.22** | 2.27 | 0.08 | 0.52 | ||||
间接效应 | cap | 0.04** | -2.3 | -0.5*** | -3.05 | 0.06*** | 2.90 | 0.06 | 1.36 | |||
lab | -48.53*** | -4.54 | -18.75*** | -2.66 | 10.24* | 1.95 | -77.80*** | -3.08 | ||||
innov | 873.12** | -2.2 | -1315.64* | -1.85 | -854.07 | -1.12 | 1865.51 | 1.31 | ||||
env | -31.92 | -0.10 | -2671.38* | -1.71 | 558.46 | 0.40 | 5020.93* | 1.81 | ||||
mar | 168.58** | -2.2 | -274.19** | -2.55 | 3.66 | 0.03 | 281.28 | 1.46 | ||||
open | 0.09 | -1.2 | -0.59** | -2.11 | -0.05 | -0.29 | 0.06 | 0.49 | ||||
总效应 | cap | 0.12*** | 5.80 | 0.06*** | 6.64 | 0.13*** | 4.39 | 0.15** | 2.05 | |||
lab | -0.23 | -0.02 | 21.73*** | 3.21 | 24.90** | 1.99 | -34.51 | -1.16 | ||||
innov | 2901.89*** | 3.67 | 1467.76** | 2.28 | -1892.24 | -1.23 | 4771.15** | 2.02 | ||||
env | -89.89 | -0.10 | -2164.95** | -2.26 | 647.38 | 0.31 | 8122.79** | 2.11 | ||||
mar | 558.89*** | 3.98 | 308.95*** | 4.55 | 23.08 | 0.09 | 741.01** | 2.23 | ||||
open | 0.27* | 1.65 | 0.68** | 2.47 | 0.17 | 0.70 | 0.14 | 0.52 | ||||
| 0.33***(3.28) | -0.60***(-5.20) | 0.54***(6.30) | 0.43***(3.00) | ||||||||
N/个 | 121 | 44 | 33 | 44 | ||||||||
Sqrt-R | 0.9309 | 0.8850 | 0.9802 | 0.9680 | ||||||||
Log-L | -915.798 | -333.3944 | -221.0237 | -318.9591 |
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