随机价格下杉木人工林的碳汇收益及最优轮伐期确定

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220313

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

发展林业碳汇是应对全球气候变化及实现中国2060年碳中和的重要举措。基于改进的Faustmann-Hartman模型,以中国南方浙江、福建和江西三个省份杉木人工林为研究对象,使用时间序列模型拟合并预测中国碳排放权交易市场的碳汇价格,通过蒙特卡洛模拟确定最优轮伐期及碳汇收益。研究结果表明：（1）依次纳入木材收益、地上生物量碳汇收益和死亡有机质碳汇收益时,杉木人工林的最优轮伐期分别为21.85年、22.98年和22.88年;（2）上述三种情景下,林地期望价值的净现值分别为20408.20元/hm²、24587.29元/hm²和28101.11元/hm²;（3）全面考虑包含死亡有机质碳库在内的林业碳汇效益,能够稳定提高林地所有者收益约7.02%~21.61%。此外,应进一步考虑多轮伐期下税收政策及自然风险等因素对碳汇营林的影响,这是确定最优轮伐期和碳汇收益后续研究值得重视的问题。

关键词: 杉木, 碳汇收益, 最优轮伐期, Faustmann-Hartman模型, 随机价格, 时间序列分析, 蒙特卡洛模拟

Abstract:

Developing forestry carbon sequestration economy is an important measure to cope with global climate change and realize carbon neutrality in China by 2060. Based on the improved Faustmann-Hartman model, taking Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation in Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi provinces in Southern China as research objects, this paper used the time series model to fit and predict the carbon price of China's carbon emission trading market, and used Monte Carlo simulation to determine the optimal rotation period and the net present price of the land expectation value. The results showed that: (1) The optimal rotation periods of Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation were 21.85 years, 22.98 years and 22.88 years respectively when timber revenue, aboveground biomass carbon sequestration revenue and dead organic carbon sequestration revenue were included in turn. (2) Under the above three scenarios, the net present values of the land expectation value were 20408.20 CNY/hm ², 24587.29 CNY/hm² and 28101.11 CNY/hm², respectively. (3) Comprehensive consideration of forest carbon sequestration benefits including dead organic matter carbon pool can stably raise the income of forest owners by 7.02%-21.61%. In addition, it is necessary to further consider the impact of tax policy and natural risks on carbon sequestration under multiple rotation in the follow-up study of determining the optimal rotation period and carbon sequestration benefits.

Key words: Cunninghamia lanceolata, carbon sequestration benefits, optimal rotation period, Faustmann-Hartman model, stochastic price, time series analysis, Monte Carlo simulation

余智涵, 宁卓, 杨红强. 随机价格下杉木人工林的碳汇收益及最优轮伐期确定[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(3): 753-768.

YU Zhi-han, NING Zhuo, YANG Hong-qiang. Carbon sequestration benefit and optimal rotation period determination of Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation under stochastic price[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(3): 753-768.

图/表 9

表1

表2

模型参数设置

参数名称	值	数据来源
$δ$	0.7	沈月琴等^[47]
$r$	5%	王周绪等^[50]
SI	15	朱臻等^[46]
$a$	0.3999	Fang等^[42]
$b$	22.541	Fang等^[42]
$BEF$	1.634	苏伟^[43]
$α$	0.28	徐传洪^[51]
$β$	0.0601	周涛等^[52],蔡兆炜^[53]
$D (0)$	0	作者假设
$γ$	0.15964	苏伟^[43]

表2

图1

表3

AR(3) 模型参数

参数	值	标准差	t统计量	P值
$C$	0.0642	0.0610	1.0519	0.29
$∅ 1$	0.8715	0.0225	38.7033	0.00
$∅ 2$	0.0409	0.0327	1.2504	0.21
$∅ 3$	0.0849	0.0233	3.6436	0.00
$σ 2$	0.3679	0.0137	26.9318	0.00

表3

图2

图3

表4

图4

图5

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造林成本/(元/hm²)				管护成本/ (元/hm²)	采运成本/ (元/m³)
第1年	第2年	第3年	第4年	管护成本/ (元/hm²)	采运成本/ (元/m³)
16104.37	5242.17	4072.47	1563.59	90.48	288.77

情景		95%置信区间	均值	标准差	变异系数	偏度	峰度
T+B	最优轮伐期	(19.25, 26.87)	22.98	1.99	0.0865	0.1220	2.6109
T+B	净现值	(22301.11, 26945.21)	24587.29	1201.34	0.0489	0.0596	2.6619
T+B+D	最优轮伐期	(21.24, 24.64)	22.88	0.89	0.0391	0.1148	2.6757
T+B+D	净现值	(26313.95, 29900.10)	28101.11	915.95	0.0326	0.0027	2.9028