自然资源学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 701-717.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20220310

• 其他研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

粤港澳大湾区旅游竞争力与城市化的耦合协调度及其对地方经济的影响

李维航1,2(), 张高军1,3(), 陈森4, 邱子健1   

  1. 1.暨南大学深圳旅游学院,深圳 518053
    2.香港中文大学商学院,中国香港 999077
    3.暨南大学“一带一路”与粤港澳大湾区研究院,广州 510632
    4.日本东海大学政治经济学院,神奈川平塚 2591292
  • 收稿日期:2021-01-31 修回日期:2021-06-23 出版日期:2022-03-28 发布日期:2022-05-28
  • 通讯作者: 张高军(1988- ),男,河南开封人,博士,副研究员,硕士生导师,主要从事区域资源开发与地方营销研究。E-mail: junfly18@163.com
  • 作者简介:李维航(1998- ),男,广东佛山人,硕士,主要从事计量经济研究。E-mail: weihang_li@foxmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41801124);广州市哲学社会科学发展“十三五”规划2020年度一般课题(2020GZYB25)

The coupling coordination between tourism competitiveness and urbanization and its impact on local economy

LI Wei-hang1,2(), ZHANG Gao-jun1,3(), CHEN Sen4, QIU Zi-jian1   

  1. 1. Shenzhen Tourism College, Jinan University, Shenzhen 518063, Guangdong, China
    2. Business School, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin 999077, N.T., Hong Kong SAR, China
    3. Institute of Belt and Road Initiative and Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
    4. School of Political Science and Economics, Tokai University, Kanagawa 2591292, Japan
  • Received:2021-01-31 Revised:2021-06-23 Online:2022-03-28 Published:2022-05-28

摘要:

研究旅游竞争力与城市化的耦合协调效应对地方经济的影响具有重要意义。以粤港澳大湾区为例,利用2007—2019年的时间序列数据,构建旅游竞争力—城市化的耦合协调度评价模型,通过固定效应模型检验耦合协调度与地方经济之间的因果关系,最后利用VAR模型作进一步分析。研究发现:(1)粤港澳大湾区旅游竞争力和城市化的耦合协调度在波动中上升,不同地区波动时点和波幅存在差异;(2)地方经济增长和耦合协调度间呈现正相关,在时间序列上存在长期稳定关系;(3)广州、东莞、江门和澳门的耦合协调度对地方经济产生显著的冲击效应与方差贡献,其中广州和澳门的响应积极迅速,东莞存在滞后性,江门波动较大。研究结果对建成“宜居宜业宜游”湾区具有一定参考价值。

关键词: 旅游竞争力, 城市化, 耦合协调度, 时间序列, 粤港澳大湾区

Abstract:

The promotion of both tourism competitiveness and urbanization have positive effects on local economy. However, whether the coupling coordination of these two systems have a specific correlation with local economy still needs empirical demonstration. Taking the Guangzhou-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as an example, this study collects statistical data from 2007 to 2019 to build a tourism competitiveness-urbanization coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) and further adopt a panel model to identify the correlation between coupling coordination degree and local GDP. Finally, this study selected Guangzhou, Dongguan, Jiangmen and Macao to establish a VAR model for time-series research. The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the coupling coordination of the GBA showed volatile increases in the sample years, with different trends of each city. Secondly, there is a positive correlation and a long-term stable counteraction between economy and the coupling coordination. Thirdly, in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Jiangmen and Macao, local GDPs all have impulse response to the innovation of the coupling coordination, and the variance decomposition shows that the innovation of coupling coordination has a significant contribution to local economy, Guangzhou and Macao have an immediate positive response to innovation, while the response of Dongguan has lag effect, and Jiangmen has volatile impulse. In conclusion, the results of this research demonstrate the unique characteristics of each city in the study area and a general review of the coordination degree and its effect on local economy.

Key words: tourism competitiveness, urbanization, coupling coordination, time series, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area