基于人粮关系的“一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局研究

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220305

自然资源学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 616-626.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20220305

• 新时期自然资源利用与管理 • 上一篇下一篇

基于人粮关系的“一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局研究

张超¹^,²^,³(), 杨艳昭¹^,²^,⁴(), 封志明¹^,²^,⁴, 郎婷婷¹^,², 刘莹¹^,²

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
3.北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875
4.自然资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室,北京 101149

收稿日期:2021-01-25 修回日期:2021-04-14 出版日期:2022-03-28 发布日期:2022-05-28
通讯作者: 杨艳昭（1977- ）,女,辽宁朝阳人,博士,研究员,主要从事资源开发与区域发展研究。E-mail: yangyz@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:张超（1991- ）,男,河南平顶山人,博士研究生,主要从事资源开发与区域发展研究。E-mail: zhangc. 18b@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010201)

Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on human-cereals relationship

ZHANG Chao¹^,²^,³(), YANG Yan-zhao¹^,²^,⁴(), FENG Zhi-ming¹^,²^,⁴, LANG Ting-ting¹^,², LIU Ying¹^,²

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
4. Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 101149, China

Received:2021-01-25 Revised:2021-04-14 Online:2022-03-28 Published:2022-05-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“一带一路”沿线国家是全球重要的人口集聚区。以人粮关系为主线,从全域到国别研究了1995—2017年沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局。结果表明：研究期内,（1）沿线国家耕地总量与人均耕地量分别降至6.96×10⁸hm²和2.23亩/人,分别约为全球水平的50%和80%,约80%的国家人均耕地在下降;（2）承载力增至45.95亿人,近90%的国家在提高,但西亚及中东多数国家在下降;（3）地均承载力增至90人/km²水平,约为全球水平的1.5倍,孟加拉国、匈牙利、越南超300人/km²;（4）人粮关系从超载转向临界超载,粮食盈余国家增多,主要为耕地面积广的产粮大国。半数国家土地仍超载,多为气候干旱区与岛屿国家。研究有助于深化与沿线国家的粮食安全合作和提高项目建设布局的科学性。

关键词: 土地资源, 土地资源承载力, 人粮关系, 时空格局, “一带一路”沿线国家

Abstract:

The countries along the Belt and Road are major population agglomeration areas in the world. Focusing on the relationship between humans and cereals, we examined the spatio-temporal patterns of the land resource carrying capacity during 1995-2017 from the whole region and national scale. The results showed that, during the study period: (1) The total and per capita cultivated land of the countries along the Belt and Road dropped to 696 million hectares and 0.15 hm²/person, which are respectively about 50% and 80% of the global level. The per capita cultivated land is declining in around 80% of the countries. (2) The carrying capacity of land resources increased to 4.60 billion people. The carrying capacity of nearly 90% of the countries was increasing, but that of most countries in West Asia and the Middle East declined. (3) The average carrying capacity of land resources increased to 90 persons/km², which is 1.5 times at the global level; in Bangladesh, Hungary and Vietnam, it exceeded 300 persons/km². (4) The human-cereals relationship had shifted from overloading to critical overloading. Countries with cereals surpluses increased, especially large cereals-producing countries with much cultivated land and better production conditions. The land has still overloaded for half of the countries in the Belt and Road, and these countries are mostly located in arid climate or islands zones. The results will contribute to strengthening cooperation between countries in the Belt and Road region for food security and improving the scientific nature of project construction layout.

Key words: cultivated resources, land resource carrying capacity, human-cereals relationship, spatio-temporal pattern, countries along the Belt and Road

张超, 杨艳昭, 封志明, 郎婷婷, 刘莹. 基于人粮关系的“一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(3): 616-626.

ZHANG Chao, YANG Yan-zhao, FENG Zhi-ming, LANG Ting-ting, LIU Ying. Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on human-cereals relationship[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(3): 616-626.

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六大区域	国家名称	数量/个
中亚	哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦	5
中蒙俄	中国、蒙古国、俄罗斯	3
东南亚	越南、老挝、柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚、文莱、菲律宾、缅甸、东帝汶	11
南亚	印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、阿富汗、尼泊尔、不丹、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫	8
中东欧	波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、黑山、北马其顿、波黑、阿尔巴尼亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦	19
西亚及中东	土耳其、伊朗、叙利亚、伊拉克、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、黎巴嫩、阿曼、也门、约旦、以色列、巴勒斯坦、亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、埃及	19

类型	土地资源承载状态	土地资源承载指数	人均粮食占有量/(kg/人)
粮食盈余	富富有余	≤0.5	≥760
粮食盈余	盈余	0.5~0.875	434~760
人粮平衡	平衡有余	0.875~1.0	380~434
人粮平衡	临界超载	1.0~1.125	338~380
人口超载	超载	1.125~1.5	253~338
人口超载	严重超载	>1.5	<253

基于人粮关系的“一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局研究

Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on human-cereals relationship

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