减排增汇目标下中国粮食生产效率的测度及分布动态演进

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220304

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

考虑粮食生产中的净碳汇和面源污染排放,构建全局EBM模型测算2001—2018年中国30个省份及三大功能区的粮食生产效率,借助分布动态模型考察中国粮食生产效率的动态演进趋势。研究发现：（1）中国粮食生产效率总体水平不高,样本期间呈现先降低后增长的态势,主产区粮食生产效率高于主销区和产销平衡区。（2）三大功能区粮食生产效率的分布动态存在差异,主产区由“多级分化”趋向于“两级分化”,地区差距逐渐缩小;主销区分化程度有所加剧;产销平衡区“多级分化”逐渐加强。（3）中国粮食生产效率总体上存在向中高水平聚集的趋势。相比高效率省份分布流动性较强,低效率省份存在明显的“贫困陷阱”,粮食低水平发展的恶性循环不易突破。

关键词: 碳中和, 粮食生产效率, EBM模型, 核密度估计, 马尔科夫链

Abstract:

Considering the net carbon sink and non-point source pollution emissions in grain production, this paper constructs a global EBM model to calculate the grain production efficiency of 30 provincial-level regions and three functional areas in China from 2001 to 2018, and investigates the dynamic evolution trend of China's grain production efficiency with the help of dynamic distribution model. The results show that: (1) The overall level of grain production efficiency in China is not high, showing a trend of first decreasing and then increasing during the sample period, and the grain production efficiency in the main producing areas is higher than that in the main selling areas and the production and marketing balance areas. (2) There are differences in the distribution dynamics of grain production efficiency among the three functional areas. The main production areas change to "two-level differentiation" from "multi-level differentiation", and the regional gap is gradually narrowing. The differentiation degree of the main sales areas has been intensified. The "multi-level differentiation" in the production and marketing balance area has been gradually strengthened. (3) China's grain production efficiency has a trend of gathering to medium and high levels. Compared with the provinces with high efficiency, those with low efficiency have obvious "poverty trap", and the vicious circle of low-level food development is not easy to break.

Key words: carbon neutrality, grain production efficiency, EBM model, kernel density estimation, Markov chain

杨骞, 司祥慧, 王珏. 减排增汇目标下中国粮食生产效率的测度及分布动态演进[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(3): 600-615.

YANG Qian, SI Xiang-hui, WANG Jue. The measurement and its distribution dynamic evolution of grain production efficiency in China under the goal of reducing pollution emissions and increasing carbon sink[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(3): 600-615.

图/表 8

表1

表2

表3

表4

2001—2018年全国及各个省份的粮食生产效率

地区	2001年	2004年	2007年	2010年	2013年	2016年	2018年	均值	变化率/%	排名
北京	0.570	0.521	0.591	0.599	0.684	0.681	0.669	0.613	0.945	25
天津	0.653	0.640	0.603	0.617	0.642	0.702	0.878	0.661	1.761	23
河北	0.549	0.553	0.592	0.625	0.706	0.743	0.798	0.640	2.233	24
山西	0.446	0.648	0.535	0.527	0.595	0.607	0.657	0.575	2.307	28
内蒙古	0.899	1.000	0.866	0.828	0.891	0.939	1.000	0.918	0.630	7
辽宁	0.655	0.802	0.751	0.697	0.856	0.844	0.811	0.766	1.267	18
吉林	1.000	1.000	0.868	0.869	0.989	1.000	0.924	0.958	-0.461	3
黑龙江	0.940	0.919	0.855	0.981	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.954	0.362	4
上海	1.000	1.000	0.948	1.000	0.963	0.886	1.000	0.963	0.000	1
江苏	0.847	0.805	0.762	0.749	0.773	0.786	0.831	0.783	-0.117	16
浙江	0.734	0.689	0.667	0.679	0.640	0.644	0.675	0.676	-0.490	21
安徽	0.694	0.678	0.673	0.663	0.723	0.779	0.794	0.711	0.791	20
福建	0.657	0.616	0.595	0.585	0.598	0.592	0.628	0.604	-0.269	26
江西	1.000	0.827	0.798	0.783	0.881	0.881	1.000	0.858	0	11
山东	0.648	0.703	0.726	0.772	0.821	0.884	0.914	0.773	2.045	17
河南	0.791	0.875	0.958	0.882	0.894	0.962	1.000	0.899	1.392	8
湖北	1.000	1.000	0.766	0.741	0.774	0.784	0.818	0.830	-1.177	13
湖南	1.000	0.850	0.816	0.822	0.818	0.836	0.865	0.850	-0.850	12
广东	0.827	0.700	0.697	0.600	0.603	0.628	0.638	0.668	-1.514	22
广西	1.000	0.906	0.836	0.713	0.712	0.653	0.664	0.785	-2.382	15
海南	1.000	0.670	0.503	0.443	0.492	0.528	0.545	0.553	-3.507	29
重庆	1.000	1.000	0.869	0.832	0.864	0.902	1.000	0.898	0	10
四川	0.950	0.988	0.881	0.858	0.849	0.872	0.929	0.898	-0.132	9
贵州	1.000	1.000	0.910	0.855	0.864	0.993	1.000	0.923	0	5
云南	0.681	0.628	0.576	0.529	0.571	0.565	0.633	0.591	-0.427	27
陕西	0.692	0.824	0.788	0.756	0.732	0.757	0.771	0.757	0.641	19
甘肃	0.553	0.548	0.455	0.509	0.566	0.587	0.649	0.549	0.941	30
青海	1.000	0.930	0.961	0.668	0.663	0.704	0.752	0.809	-1.666	14
宁夏	0.913	1.000	0.907	0.826	0.869	0.926	1.000	0.921	0.538	6
新疆	1.000	0.971	0.848	0.960	1.000	0.889	1.000	0.959	0	2
主产区	0.844	0.846	0.793	0.790	0.844	0.870	0.899	0.834	0.370	1
主销区	0.777	0.691	0.658	0.646	0.660	0.666	0.719	0.677	-0.457	3
平衡区	0.828	0.846	0.769	0.718	0.744	0.758	0.813	0.777	-0.114	2
全国	0.823	0.810	0.753	0.732	0.768	0.785	0.828	0.778	0.034	—

表4

图1

图2

图3

表5

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碳排放源	碳排放系数
化肥	0.8956 kg C·kg^-1
农药	4.9341 kg C·kg^-1
农膜	5.18 kg C·kg^-1
柴油	0.5927 kg C·kg^-1
灌溉	266.48 kg C·hm^-2
翻耕	312.6 kg C·hm^-2

粮食作物	碳吸收率	含水量/%	经济系数
稻谷	0.414	12	0.45
小麦	0.485	12	0.40
玉米	0.471	13	0.40
谷子	0.450	12	0.42
高粱	0.450	12	0.35
豆类	0.450	13	0.34
薯类	0.423	70	0.70

变量	单位	观测数/个	均值	标准差	最大值	最小值
粮食作物播种面积	千hm²	540	3678.566	2885.305	14283.080	55.640
粮食种植业劳动人数	万人	540	352.739	268.611	1480.159	9.411
机械总动力	万kW	540	1967.423	2008.370	9863.674	39.686
农药使用量	万t	540	3.568	2.901	11.641	0.088
化肥施用折纯量	万t	540	120.251	99.617	538.312	3.397
农用塑料薄膜使用量	万t	540	47216.500	43448.287	229174.530	380.645
粮食种植业用水量	亿m³	540	79.284	59.644	304.555	2.252
粮食产量	万t	540	1856.103	1553.349	7615.780	34.140
净碳汇	万t	540	1360.501	1285.996	6251.572	24.264
面源污染指数	—	540	0.033	0.006	0.049	0.027

时间跨度	类型	低	中低	中高	高
T=1	低	0.831	0.169	0.000	0.000
	中低	0.081	0.721	0.191	0.007
	中高	0.000	0.059	0.684	0.257
	高	0.000	0.029	0.353	0.618
T=2	低	0.820	0.172	0.008	0.000
	中低	0.078	0.688	0.227	0.008
	中高	0.000	0.125	0.625	0.250
	高	0.010	0.063	0.323	0.604
T=3	低	0.800	0.183	0.017	0.000
	中低	0.100	0.642	0.242	0.017
	中高	0.000	0.158	0.575	0.267
	高	0.000	0.056	0.400	0.544
T=4	低	0.750	0.232	0.018	0.000
	中低	0.125	0.607	0.259	0.009
	中高	0.000	0.170	0.527	0.304
	高	0.012	0.071	0.417	0.500
T=5	低	0.731	0.250	0.019	0.000
	中低	0.154	0.558	0.279	0.010
	中高	0.000	0.183	0.490	0.327
	高	0.013	0.128	0.333	0.526