土地利用变化对区域水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调度的影响——以京津冀城市群为研究对象

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220303

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

将土地因素引入水—能源—粮食系统,运用耦合协调模型对京津冀城市群2005— 2018年水—能源—粮食—土地系统的时空变化特征进行研究。结果表明：（1）从空间尺度上来看,京津冀城市群建设用地由中心向四周扩散;从京津冀城市群土地利用格局来看,耕地和建设用地面积分别呈现较为明显的下降和增长趋势。（2）将土地纳入水—能源—粮食系统降低了京津冀城市群大多数城市水—能源—粮食系统间的耦合度和耦合协调度。（3）土地与水—能源—粮食子系统组成的两要素系统的协调水平会进行叠加或抵消进而影响水—能源—粮食—土地系统耦合协调度。本文的研究启示在于：京津冀城市群在考虑水、能源、粮食协调发展的同时,应考虑土地对水—能源—粮食系统整体及内部子系统的影响,根据城市自身资源优势合理配置资源、优化产业布局以实现可持续发展。

关键词: 土地利用, 耦合协调, 水—能源—粮食, 京津冀城市群

Abstract:

In this paper, the land factor is introduced into the water-energy-food system, and the coupling coordination model is used to study the spatio-temporal change characteristics of the water-energy-food-land system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration from 2004 to 2017. The results show that: (1) On the spatial scale, the construction land of the study area diffuses from the center to the periphery. In terms of land use pattern of the urban agglomeration, the area of cultivated land and construction land showed a relatively obvious decline and growth trend, respectively. (2) The integration of land into the water-energy-food system reduces the coupling degree and co-scheduling of water-energy-food systems in most cities of this urban agglomeration. (3) The coordination level of land and water-energy-food subsystem will be superimposed or offset, which will affect the coupling coordination of water-energy-food-land system. The research enlightenment of this paper is that considering the coordinated development of water, energy and grain, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration should understand the impact of land on the whole and internal subsystems of the water-energy-food system, allocate resources reasonably and optimize the industrial layout according to the city's own resource advantages, so as to achieve sustainable development.

Key words: land use, coupling coordination, water-energy-food system, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

王勇, 孙瑞欣. 土地利用变化对区域水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调度的影响——以京津冀城市群为研究对象[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(3): 582-599.

WANG Yong, SUN Rui-xin. Impact of land use change on coupling coordination degree of regional water-energy-food system: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(3): 582-599.

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目标层	指标层	单位	指标性质
水子系统	降水总量	mm	正
	人均水资源总量	m³/人	正
	生活用水占比	%	正
	农业用水占比	%	正
	人均用水量	m³	负
	生态用水占比	%	正
	产水模数	万m³/km²	正
	万元GDP用水量	m³/万元	负
能源子系统	能源消费总量	万tce	负
	人均能源消费量	t/人	负
	能源工业投资	亿元	正
	能源消耗强度	t/万元	负
	二氧化硫排放量	t	负
粮食子系统	人均粮食产量	kg	正
	粮食单产	kg/hm²	正
	人口自然增长率	‰	负
	化肥负荷	t/hm²	负
	机械动力	kW/hm²	正
	农用柴油使用量	t	负
	受灾面积	hm²	负
	粮食消费价格指数		负
	粮食流动成本		负
土地子系统	人口密度	人/km²	负
	人均建设用地面积	m²/人	正
	地均GDP	万元/km²	正
	地均工业废水排放量	t/km²	负
	人均绿地面积	m²/人	正
	建成区绿化覆盖率	%	正

土地利用类型变化	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
2005面积/km²	108266.43	44661.40	35092.32	6176.49	19324.16	2024.46
2010面积/km²	104009.47	44988.36	34031.82	5465.68	25766.92	1283.28
2015面积/km²	102507.66	44856.23	33803.31	5489.71	27597.75	1281.34
2018面积/km²	97808.22	45651.96	33683.30	5573.80	31240.30	1578.16
2005年面积占比/%	50.23	20.72	16.28	2.87	8.97	0.94
2018年面积占比/%	45.38	21.18	15.63	2.59	14.49	0.73
2005—2018年变化量/km²	-10458.22	990.56	-1409.03	-602.68	11916.14	-446.30
2005—2010年动态度/%	-0.79	0.15	-0.60	-2.30	6.67	-7.32
2010—2015年动态度/%	-0.29	-0.06	-0.13	0.09	1.42	-0.03
2015—2018年动态度/%	-1.53	0.59	-0.12	0.51	4.40	7.72

时间段/年	耦合度				耦合协调度
时间段/年	2005—2009	2010—2014	2015—2018	2005—2018	2005—2009	2010—2014	2015—2018	2005—2018
北京	0.594	0.480	0.421	0.504	0.129	0.157	0.140	0.142
天津	0.942	0.828	0.875	0.882	0.113	0.126	0.151	0.128
石家庄	0.855	0.731	0.785	0.791	0.285	0.324	0.410	0.335
唐山	0.417	0.372	0.418	0.401	0.218	0.195	0.234	0.214
秦皇岛	0.450	0.479	0.505	0.476	0.205	0.234	0.291	0.240
邯郸	0.387	0.449	0.552	0.456	0.191	0.161	0.198	0.182
邢台	0.220	0.197	0.366	0.254	0.153	0.154	0.157	0.155
保定	0.310	0.406	0.480	0.393	0.157	0.179	0.210	0.180
张家口	0.344	0.441	0.409	0.397	0.169	0.223	0.227	0.205
承德	0.788	0.970	0.718	0.833	0.276	0.352	0.288	0.307
沧州	0.286	0.375	0.720	0.442	0.149	0.158	0.160	0.156
廊坊	0.195	0.184	0.510	0.281	0.178	0.195	0.178	0.184
衡水	0.249	0.222	0.451	0.297	0.104	0.118	0.148	0.121

时间段/年	耦合度				耦合协调度
时间段/年	2005—2009	2010—2014	2015—2018	2005—2018	2005—2009	2010—2014	2015—2018	2005—2018
北京	0.604	0.495	0.489	0.532	0.125	0.153	0.146	0.141
天津	0.324	0.394	0.498	0.399	0.119	0.132	0.156	0.134
石家庄	0.571	0.465	0.498	0.512	0.222	0.245	0.311	0.255
唐山	0.300	0.318	0.360	0.324	0.175	0.172	0.206	0.183
秦皇岛	0.387	0.418	0.383	0.397	0.180	0.209	0.240	0.208
邯郸	0.254	0.345	0.408	0.330	0.147	0.133	0.162	0.146
邢台	0.187	0.189	0.378	0.243	0.135	0.144	0.151	0.143
保定	0.241	0.317	0.400	0.313	0.131	0.151	0.182	0.153
张家口	0.181	0.220	0.211	0.203	0.116	0.149	0.155	0.139
承德	0.437	0.534	0.464	0.480	0.196	0.248	0.221	0.222
沧州	0.223	0.404	0.755	0.440	0.124	0.157	0.165	0.147
廊坊	0.157	0.152	0.477	0.247	0.150	0.168	0.163	0.160
衡水	0.265	0.289	0.542	0.353	0.102	0.131	0.160	0.129

城市	土地—水		土地—能源		土地—粮食
城市	耦合度	耦合协调度	耦合度	耦合协调度	耦合度	耦合协调度
北京	0.687	0.177	0.856	0.083	0.839	0.135
天津	0.601	0.306	0.399	0.240	0.400	0.242
石家庄	0.512	0.158	0.534	0.163	0.409	0.183
唐山	0.372	0.191	0.496	0.164	0.970	0.075
秦皇岛	0.595	0.176	0.988	0.098	0.431	0.214
邯郸	0.274	0.147	0.967	0.061	0.472	0.109
邢台	0.317	0.207	0.931	0.068	0.903	0.101
保定	0.277	0.177	0.884	0.086	0.860	0.087
张家口	0.166	0.108	0.778	0.044	0.195	0.106
承德	0.433	0.131	0.397	0.140	0.363	0.141
沧州	0.512	0.197	0.948	0.104	0.874	0.105
廊坊	0.273	0.220	0.974	0.070	0.779	0.109
衡水	0.641	0.229	0.609	0.080	0.833	0.124