非农就业与土地流转对农户耕地撂荒行为的影响——以闽赣湘山区为例

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220210

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

耕地撂荒是世界各国长期普遍存在的一种土地利用变化现象。基于闽赣湘山区640户农户调查数据,运用Tobit和IV-Tobit模型回归分析得出：农户家庭非农就业每提升10%,耕地撂荒占比会增加1.11%;小规模农户土地转入会提升其耕地撂荒规模,此时扩大经营规模对耕地撂荒的减缓作用甚微,而土地转出会降低非农就业对耕地撂荒的正向影响。此外,农户的劳动力、土地与农业机械等要素投入,以及灌溉条件和地块数等均稳健影响其耕地撂荒行为。农业机械化和土地流转是缓解山区耕地撂荒的重要举措,政府在推动经营规模扩大的同时,应着重提高地块规模,鼓励留村务农劳动力换工,并提升农机社会化服务水平,以及拓宽农户家庭多元化的收入机会。

关键词: 耕地撂荒, 非农就业, 土地流转, IV-Tobit, 闽赣湘山区

Abstract:

Farmland abandonment is a land use change phenomenon that has long been prevalent in countries around the world. Based on data from a survey of 640 farming households in Fujian-Jiangxi-Hunan Mountainous Areas, regressions using the Tobit and IV-Tobit models show that for every 10% increase in non-farm employment of farming households, the proportion of cultivated land abandoned increases by 1.11%. Land transfer of small-scale farmers will increase their farmland abandonment scale. At this time, expanding the scale of operation will have little effect on alleviating farmland abandonment, and the land transfer will reduce the positive impact of non-agricultural employment on farmland abandonment. In addition, there are factors that have stable affect on farmland abandonment of farmers, namely, labor input, land input, agricultural machinery input, irrigation conditions, and the number of plots. Agricultural mechanization and land transfer are important initiatives to alleviate farmland abandonment in mountainous areas. While promoting the expansion of the scale of operations, the government should focus on increasing the size of plots, encouraging the exchange of labors for farming in villages, and improving the level of socialized agricultural machinery services, as well as broadening diversified income opportunities for farming households.

Key words: farmland abandonment, non-agricultural employment, land transfer, IV-Tobit, Fujian-Jiangxi-Hunan Mountainous Areas

谢花林, 黄萤乾. 非农就业与土地流转对农户耕地撂荒行为的影响——以闽赣湘山区为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(2): 408-423.

XIE Hua-lin, HUANG Ying-qian. Impact of non-agricultural employment and land transfer on farmland abandonment behaviors of farmer: A case study in Fujian-Jiangxi-Hunan Mountainous Areas[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(2): 408-423.

图/表 8

图1

图2

图3

表1

表2

表3

非农就业和土地流转对农户耕地撂荒行为的影响

变量	模型1		模型2		模型3		模型4
变量	系数B	dy/dx	系数B	dy/dx	系数B	dy/dx	系数B	dy/dx
非农就业	0.499^***	0.208^***	0.323^***	0.137^***	0.229^*	0.097^*	0.263^*	0.111^*
非农就业	(0.136)	(0.057)	(0.122)	(0.051)	(0.132)	(0.056)	(0.142)	(0.060)
土地转入	-0.108	-0.045	0.083	0.035	0.105	0.045	0.128^*	0.054^*
土地转入	(0.069)	(0.029)	(0.075)	(0.032)	(0.076)	(0.032)	(0.070)	(0.030)
土地转出	-0.256^***	-0.107^***	-0.402^***	-0.170^***	-0.405^***	-0.172^***	-0.388^***	-0.164^***
土地转出	(0.072)	(0.030)	(0.074)	(0.031)	(0.074)	(0.031)	(0.073)	(0.031)
ln(劳动力投入)			-0.481^***	-0.204^***	-0.547^***	-0.232^***	-0.512^***	-0.217^***
ln(劳动力投入)			(0.121)	(0.051)	(0.122)	(0.052)	(0.116)	(0.049)
土地投入			-0.028^**	-0.012^**	-0.029^**	-0.012^**	-0.027^**	-0.012^**
土地投入			(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.012)	(0.005)
ln(农业机械投入)			-0.054^***	-0.023^***	-0.056^***	-0.024^***	-0.053^***	-0.023^***
ln(农业机械投入)			(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.004)
户主年龄					0.004	0.002	0.002	0.001
户主年龄					(0.003)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.001)
受教育程度					0.083	0.035	0.075	0.032
受教育程度					(0.067)	(0.028)	(0.062)	(0.026)
劳动力规模					0.051^**	0.022^**	0.048^**	0.020^**
劳动力规模					(0.020)	(0.009)	(0.019)	(0.008)
老龄人口数					0.078^**	0.033^**	0.077^***	0.032^***
老龄人口数					(0.031)	(0.013)	(0.030)	(0.012)
ln(家庭年收入)							-0.031	-0.013
ln(家庭年收入)							(0.030)	(0.012)
ln(养殖收入)							-0.016^**	-0.007^*
ln(养殖收入)							(0.008)	(0.003)
灌溉条件							0.196^***	0.083^***
灌溉条件							(0.034)	(0.014)
地块数							0.001^**	0.001^**
地块数							(0.001)	(0.000)
常数	0.095		0.466^***		0.090		0.186
常数	(0.068)		(0.088)		(0.180)		(0.313)
省域	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Log-likelihood	-697.61		-669.46		-666.07		-646.57
Pseudo R²	0.0401		0.1313		0.1428		0.1907
样本量/个	640	640	640	640	640	640	640	640

表3

表4

表5

工具变量（IV）估计和稳健性检验

变量	模型7		模型8		模型9
	第一阶段	第二阶段	第一阶段	第二阶段	分样本第二阶段
	NAE (OLS)	AP (IV-Tobit)	MLTI (OLS)	AP (IV-Tobit)	AP (IV-Tobit)
IV：村级非农就业	0.124^** (0.055)		0.279^** (0.123)
非农就业		3.507^*		1.563^*	3.211^*
非农就业		(2.087)		(0.931)	(1.864)
土地转入	-0.017	0.190^**	-0.180^***	0.408^**	0.169^*
土地转入	(0.018)	(0.095)	(0.039)	(0.193)	(0.095)
土地转出	0.077^***	-0.650^***	0.136^***	-0.588^***	-0.647^***
土地转出	(0.018)	(0.190)	(0.040)	0.161	(0.205)
控制变量	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
省域	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
常数	-0.719^***	2.549	-1.392^***	2.207	2.362^*
常数	(0.091)	(1.573)	(0.204)	(1.377)	(1.405)
F	27.97^***		26.93^***
内源性Wald $χ 2$		100.66^***		98.81^***	74.45^***
Wald外生性检验(Prob>chi2)		0.0306		0.0304	0.0207
样本量/个	640	640	640	640	467

表5

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变量	定义与赋值	均值	标准差	预期方向
是否撂荒	农户家庭是否有耕地撂荒（0=否;1=是）	0.42	0.493
耕地撂荒占比	耕地撂荒面积占家庭承包土地面积的比例/%	0.17	0.280
非农就业	非农业劳动力与家庭总劳动力之比/%	0.24	0.223	+/-
土地转入	是否参与土地转入（0=否;1=是）	0.25	0.433	-
土地转出	是否参与土地转出（0=否;1=是）	0.23	0.424	-
ln(劳动力投入)	农业劳动力数量/家庭承包土地面积/(人/亩)	0.25	0.246	-
土地投入	家庭实际耕种的土地面积/亩	5.30	12.841	-
ln(农业机械投入)	农户获得农机服务所需投入的资金/元	2.74	3.209	-
户主年龄	2019-出生年份/岁	54.08	10.379	+/-
受教育程度	户主是否具有高中及以上学历（0=否;1=是）	0.17	0.378	+/-
劳动力规模	农户家庭15~64岁的劳动力人数/人	2.83	1.44	+/-
老年人口数	农户家庭65岁及以上的人数/人	0.77	0.873	+
ln(家庭人均年收入)	家庭年总收入/家庭总人口/(元/人)	9.31	1.027	+/-
ln(养殖收入)	农户家庭禽畜和水产养殖的收入/元	0.04	0.113	+/-
灌溉条件	1=好;2=一般;3=差	1.73	0.741	-
地块数	农户耕种的地块数/块	17.52	37.80	+

变量	高非农就业率	低非农就业率	土地转入户	非土地转入户	土地转出户	非土地转出户
是否撂荒	0.451	0.375	0.362	0.433	0.400	0.420
耕地撂荒占比	0.192	0.154	0.155	0.181	0.123	0.191