长江经济带乡村性的时空分异格局及驱动机制

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220208

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

乡村性是描述乡村地域特征的重要指标,其时空分异可以有效反映乡村发展及转型的基本面。聚焦我国重大国家战略发展区域“长江经济带”,采用乡村性指数测度模型及探索性空间数据分析探究2000年、2005年、2010年及2017年长江经济带县域乡村性的时空分异格局,并运用GWR模型重点分析影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明：（1）2000—2017年,长江经济带县域乡村性总体有所减弱,空间上呈现“东部低、中西部高”的特点;县域乡村性在城市群（圈）、省会及大城市附近呈现较低水平,向外围逐渐升高。（2）乡村性高高集聚主要分布在中西部的传统农区,随时间推移明显缩减;低低集聚则集中在长三角、武汉、长株潭等城市群（圈）地区,且整体格局较为稳定。（3）农业技术、政府支持、资本投入、市场调节因素能促进乡村发展及转型,其中,农业技术的作用最强。自然环境和区位条件则兼具促进和限制作用。这些影响因素对不同地区乡村发展及转型的影响存在差异性,未来制定区域乡村发展策略应针对不同地区分类精准施策。

关键词: 乡村性, 时空分异, 驱动机制, 长江经济带

Abstract:

Rurality is an important indicator to describe characteristics of rural areas. Its spatial and temporal distribution can effectively reflect the basic characteristics of rural development and transformation. Based on the measurement of rurality indexes in the years of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2017, this study mainly uses Exploratory Spatial data Analysis method (ESDA) to explore the spatio-temporal differentiation of the rurality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and analyzes the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors by GWR model. The results show that: (1) Rurality indexes of counties in the study area tend to decline from 2000 to 2017, and the distribution characteristic of rurality indexes presents a pattern of "high in the central and western parts while low in the eastern part"; the counties with low level of rurality are mainly distributed near the urban agglomerations, provincial capitals and big cities, while the counties with high level of rurality are in the peripheral areas. (2) The rurality's high-high agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the traditional agricultural regions in the central and western parts, and they tend to shrink gradually over time. The rurality's low-low agglomeration areas are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Wuhan Megalopolis Area and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group, and the spatial distribution is relatively stable over time. (3) Agricultural technology, government support, capital input and market regulation can promote rural development and transformation, among which agricultural technology plays the most important role. Both natural environment and location have the promoting and limiting effects. Due to different effects of influencing factors on different regions, rural development strategies should be formulated specifically for specific regions in the future.

Key words: rurality, spatio-temporal differentiation, driving mechanism, Yangtze River Economic Belt

董又铭, 郭炎, 李志刚, 林赛南. 长江经济带乡村性的时空分异格局及驱动机制[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(2): 378-395.

DONG You-ming, GUO Yan, LI Zhi-gang, LIN Sai-nan. Spatio-temporal differentiation and driving mechanism of rurality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(2): 378-395.

图/表 12

图1

图2

表1

长江经济带乡村性评价指标体系

评价指标（权重）	计算方法	指标说明
乡村人口变化率（0.102）	(末期乡村人口-初期乡村人口)/初期乡村人口	正指标（值越大,乡村性越强）
耕地变化率（0.111）	(末期耕地面积-初期耕地面积)/初期耕地面积	正指标（值越大,乡村性越强）
一产结构比（0.132）	一产产值/GDP	正指标（值越大,乡村性越强）
农业劳动生产率（0.140）	农林牧渔总产值/农林牧渔就业人口	逆指标（值越小,乡村性越强）
农业土地生产率（0.130）	农业总产值/耕地总面积	逆指标（值越小,乡村性越强）
农民人均粮食产量（0.132）	粮食总产量/乡村人口	正指标（值越大,乡村性越强）
农村居民生活水平（0.145）	农村居民人均纯收入	逆指标（值越小,乡村性越强）
归一化植被指数（0.108）	$(ρ NIR - ρ R) / (ρ NIR + ρ R)$	正指标（值越大,乡村性越强）

表1

表2

表3

图3

表4

图4

表5

表6

表7

图5

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地区/省（直辖市）	2000年	2005年	2010年	2017年
全域均值	0.570	0.568	0.506	0.516
东部均值	0.439	0.438	0.373	0.383
上海	0.351	0.365	0.315	0.345
江苏	0.502	0.502	0.414	0.412
浙江	0.463	0.448	0.390	0.393
中部均值	0.582	0.588	0.523	0.525
湖北	0.567	0.579	0.500	0.494
湖南	0.586	0.591	0.529	0.524
安徽	0.586	0.595	0.527	0.540
江西	0.591	0.588	0.536	0.542
西部均值	0.595	0.587	0.531	0.549
重庆	0.579	0.558	0.497	0.521
四川	0.583	0.574	0.516	0.542
云南	0.615	0.616	0.563	0.567
贵州	0.606	0.600	0.546	0.566

年份	Moran's I指数		全局G统计量
年份	Moran's I	Z(I)	Z(G)
2000	0.159	23.612^***	-7.871^***
2005	0.165	24.354^***	-8.097^***
2010	0.198	29.326^***	-8.661^***
2017	0.209	30.911^***	-8.048^***

影响因素	解释变量	影响系数	标准差	t统计量	稳健概率	VIF
—	截距	0.696	0.010	68.326	0.000^*	—
自然环境	高程	-0.071	0.012	-6.141	0.000^*	2.333
自然环境	坡度	0.069	0.012	5.811	0.000^*	2.850
区位条件	省内区位	0.021	0.010	2.057	0.038^*	1.400
区位条件	市内区位	0.015	0.014	1.067	0.150	1.309
农业技术	每公顷耕地的机械动力	-0.239	0.045	-5.317	0.000^*	1.025
政府支持	公共财政收入	-0.231	0.043	-5.372	0.034^*	1.846
资本投入	社会固定资产投资	-0.128	0.021	-6.009	0.000^*	2.653
市场调节	二三产业结构比	-0.192	0.013	-15.174	0.000^*	1.722
市场调节	二三产就业人口比	-0.149	0.012	-12.865	0.000^*	1.631

模型拟合参数	OLS	GWR
R²	0.715	0.772
校正R²	0.712	0.762
阿凯克信息准则（AICc）	-2816.963	-2967.717

影响因素	解释变量	绝对值的平均值	正值/%	负值/%
自然环境	高程	0.051	37.77	62.23
自然环境	坡度	0.050	89.47	10.53
区位条件	省内区位	0.024	100.00	0
区位条件	市内区位	0.021	57.99	42.01
农业技术	每公顷耕地的机械动力	1.096	0	100.00
政府支持	公共财政收入	0.229	0	100.00
资本投入	社会固定资产投资	0.137	0	100.00
市场调节	二三产业结构比	0.192	0	100.00
市场调节	二三产就业人口比	0.124	0	100.00