自然资源学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 233-249.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20220116

• 其他研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

风险规避、非牧用途使用与牧户草原流转行为

侯学博(), 余国新(), 李先东   

  1. 新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院,乌鲁木齐 800053
  • 收稿日期:2020-08-16 修回日期:2021-07-19 出版日期:2022-01-28 发布日期:2022-03-28
  • 通讯作者: 余国新(1965- ),男,河南南阳人,博士,教授,研究方向为农业经济问题。E-mail: 1637186763@qq.com
  • 作者简介:侯学博(1998- ),男,湖北恩施人,硕士,研究方向为草原流转与草原生态保护问题。E-mail: hxbxjau@outlook.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71463058);新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划人文社科项目(XJEDU2021SY011);新疆维吾尔自治区哲学社会科学基金项目(19BYJ043);教育部国家级大学生创新创业训练计划(201810758016)

Risk aversion, grassland used for non-animal-husbandry purpose and herdsmen's grassland transfer behavior

HOU Xue-bo(), YU Guo-xin(), LI Xian-dong   

  1. School of Economics and Business, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 800053, China
  • Received:2020-08-16 Revised:2021-07-19 Online:2022-01-28 Published:2022-03-28

摘要:

基于新疆12个牧业县232户微观数据,运用风险收益理论、期望效应理论构建了草原流转风险规避理论模型与基于博弈论构建了草原流转非牧用途使用理论模型,分析了风险规避和非牧用途使用对牧户草原流转的内在机理。使用二元Logit模型、中介效应与调节效应分别探析风险规避和非牧用途使用对牧户流转行为的影响。研究表明:违约风险、生态风险、经营风险对牧户草原流转行为存在显著影响,草原流转存在的各类风险可能导致牧户的风险规避行为;非牧用途使用、转移就业能力担忧与家庭收入结构对于牧户草原流转行为存在显著影响;家庭收入结构在牧户面临非牧用途使用时存在调节效应,而其转移就业能力担忧在牧户面临非牧用途使用时存在遮蔽效应。同时,违约风险、生态风险在牧户面临非牧用途使用时存在中介效应。在此基础上,进一步讨论了造成流转风险、非牧用途使用问题的成因与对策。

关键词: 风险感知, 风险规避, 非牧用途使用, 草原流转, 国土空间用途管制

Abstract:

Based on the micro data of 232 households in 12 pastoral counties in Xinjiang, this paper uses the risk-return theory and the expectation effect theory to construct a theoretical model of grassland circulation risk aversion, and a theoretical model of grassland circulation used for non-animal-husbandry purpose based on game theory. It analyzes risk aversion and non-grazing land use. The internal mechanism of grassland circulation for herdsmen is used for pastoral purposes. Using binary logit model, mediating effect and moderating effect, we examine the influence of risk aversion and grassland used for non-animal-husbandry purpose on herdsmen's circulation behavior. Results show that default risks, ecological risks, and business risks have a significant impact on herdsmen's grassland circulation behavior, and various risks in grassland circulation may lead to herdsmen's risk aversion behavior. The use for non-grazing purposes concerns about transfer ability of employment, and household income structure has a significant impact on herdsmen's grassland transfer behavior. The family income structure has a moderating effect when the herdsmen are facing grassland used for non-animal-husbandry purpose, and their ability to transfer employment may induce the shadowing effect when the herdsmen are facing grassland used for non-animal-husbandry purpose. At the same time, the risk of default and ecological risk have an intermediary effect when the herdsmen face grassland used for non-animal-husbandry purpose. On this basis, this article discusses the causes that lead to circulation risks and countermeasures to problems that result from grassland use for non-animal-husbandry purpose.

Key words: risk perception, risk aversion, grassland used for non-animal-husbandry purpose, grassland transfer, territorial space use control