土地利用系统对区域可持续发展的支撑力评价：方法与实证

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220112

自然资源学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 166-185.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20220112

土地利用系统对区域可持续发展的支撑力评价：方法与实证

李寒冰¹^,²(), 金晓斌¹^,²^,³(), 吴可⁴, 韩博¹^,², 孙瑞¹^,², 姜国栋⁴, 周寅康¹^,²^,³

1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210023
2.自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室,南京 210023
3.江苏省土地开发整理技术工程中心,南京 210023
4.山东省自然资源厅,济南 250014

收稿日期:2020-07-03 修回日期:2020-12-03 出版日期:2022-01-28 发布日期:2022-03-28
通讯作者: 金晓斌（1974- ）,男,甘肃兰州人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事土地利用与规划研究。E-mail: jinxb@nju.edu.cn
作者简介:李寒冰（1996- ）,女,河南商丘人,博士研究生,主要从事土地资源可持续利用研究。E-mail: 897921736@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41971234);国家自然科学基金项目(41971235)

Evaluation of the support capacity of land use system on regional sustainable development: Methods and empirical evidence

LI Han-bing¹^,²(), JIN Xiao-bin¹^,²^,³(), WU Ke⁴, HAN Bo¹^,², SUN Rui¹^,², JIANG Guo-dong⁴, ZHOU Yin-kang¹^,²^,³

1. College of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
2. Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China
3. Jiangsu Province Land Development and Consolidation Technology Engineering Center, Nanjing 210023, China
4. Department of Natural Resources of Shandong Province, Jinan 250014, China

Received:2020-07-03 Revised:2020-12-03 Online:2022-01-28 Published:2022-03-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用系统作为人类与自然界交互的关键载体,在区域可持续发展过程中占据重要地位。为分析其与联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）的关联特征,解释其对SDGs的支撑能力,构建土地利用系统内涵解析框架,探索其对SDGs的支撑机制并构建可持续发展支撑力评价体系,以山东省为例进行实证分析。研究结果表明：（1）以土地利用系统为核心,在人地关系视角下解析其与社会、经济、生态系统的交互作用,分析其在人地耦合系统中的运行机制,揭示其与可持续发展的相关关系,可为确定土地利用系统可持续发展目标提供理论解析。（2）山东省土地利用系统支撑力呈“省域西低东高、市域中心低周围高”分布,研究期内,66%的区域实现了支撑能力的提升,支撑力变化呈现“西北部提升、中部及东部下降”现象。具有农业优势的西部平原区对SDGs的直接支撑及自身稳定力提升,但间接支撑力有所下降,东部经济发达区自身稳定力有所提高,但直接及间接支撑力下降。（3）各类型支撑力变化空间相关性显著。显著区域多分布在市辖区,菏泽市农业发展能力的辐射带动作用较强,东营市土地经济产出及社会供应能力呈高—高集聚,土地自身稳定力呈低—低集聚。研究提出了土地利用系统支撑可持续发展的新视角,可为后续研究提供借鉴,实证分析为山东省可持续发展战略提供决策建议,为国土空间规划背景下的政策调控提供参考。

关键词: 土地利用系统, 可持续发展, 土地支撑力, 山东省

Abstract:

Land use system, as the key carrier of human interaction with nature, plays an important part in the process of regional sustainable development. In order to analyze its relevance to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and explain its support capacity, this paper constructs the connotation analysis framework of land use system, explores its supporting mechanism for SDGs and establishes the support capacity evaluation system for sustainable development, taking Shandong Province as an example for empirical analysis. The results show that: (1) Taking the land use system as the core, in the perspective of the relationship between human and land and its interactions with society, economy, ecological system, we analyze its operational mechanism in the coupling system of person, reveal its correlation with sustainable development, to determine the land use system of SDGs to provide theoretical analysis. (2) The support capacity of the land use system in Shandong province is distributed as "low in the east, but high in the west of the province; while high around the low surroundings of the urban center". During the study period, 66% of the support capacity was improved, and the change of support capacity showed the phenomenon of "uplift in the northwest and decline in the central and eastern regions". The direct support and self-stability of SDGs in the western plains with agricultural advantages has decreased, while the indirect support capacity has decreased, and the self-stability of the eastern economically developed areas has improved, while the direct and indirect support capacity has decreased. (3) The spatial correlation of each type of support capacity is significant. The significant areas are mostly distributed in the municipal districts. The radiation-driven agricultural development capacity of Heze city is strong. The economic output and social supply capacity of Dongying city are high-high agglomeration, and the stability of the land itself is low-low agglomeration. The research puts forward a new perspective on the sustainable development of land use system, which can provide reference for follow-up research, and empirical analysis lays a foundation for development decision-making in Shandong, and provides suggestions for the policy regulation of national spatial planning.

Key words: land use system, sustainable development, land support, Shandong province

李寒冰, 金晓斌, 吴可, 韩博, 孙瑞, 姜国栋, 周寅康. 土地利用系统对区域可持续发展的支撑力评价：方法与实证[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(1): 166-185.

LI Han-bing, JIN Xiao-bin, WU Ke, HAN Bo, SUN Rui, JIANG Guo-dong, ZHOU Yin-kang. Evaluation of the support capacity of land use system on regional sustainable development: Methods and empirical evidence[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2022, 37(1): 166-185.

图/表 13

图1

表1

图2

表2

土地利用系统对区域可持续发展支撑力评价体系

目标层	准则层	指标层	计算方法及指标释义	指标性质
土地利用系统对区域可持续发展支撑力	土地生产性	耕地总面积 $x 1$	区域内耕地面积,表征区域粮食生产基础	+^①
		粮食总产量 $x 2$	区域内粮食产量总和,表征耕地生产水平	+
		设施农用地面积 $x 3$	农业生产建设用地,表征区域农业生产强度	+
		第一产业增加值 $x 4$	第一产业总产出减去中间投入,表征第一产业生产经济效益	+
	土地稳定性	耕作可达性 $x 5$	耕作易到达区域面积^②/耕地总面积,表征农业生产便利性	+
		有效灌溉面积占比 $x 6$	有效灌溉的耕地面积^③占耕地总面积的比例,表征耕地产出稳定性	+
		水面面积占比 $x 7$	水面面积/土地总面积,表征水土资源协调程度	+/-
		土地退化指数 $x 8$	(土地沙化面积+盐碱化面积)/土地总面积,表征土地生态质量	-
	人口承载性	人均耕地面积 $x 9$	耕地总面积/区域总人口,表征耕地总量对区域人口的支撑性	+
		人均粮食产量 $x 10$	粮食总产量/区域总人口,表征耕地产出对人口的直接供应	+
		人均建设用地面积 $x 11$	建设用地面积/总人口,表征区域内建设用地对人口的直接支撑	+/-
		人口密度 $x 12$	总人口/土地总面积,表征区域内土地对人口的支撑强度	-
	经济可行性	人均国民生产总值 $x 13$	国民生产总值/区域总人口,表征区域经济对人口的支撑性	+
		固定资产投资 $x 14$	购置固定资产总费用,表征区域范围内社会经济发展潜力	+
		土地生产力 $x 15$	国民生产总值/土地总面积,表征区域范围内土地利用强度	+
	资源环境协调性	土地总面积 $x 16$	区域范围内土地面积总和,表征区域范围内土地资源总量	+
		农业机械总动力 $x 17$	农业动力机械的动力总和,表征农业机械排放物污染程度	-
		植被生产力 $x 18$	以区域EVI年平均值^④表征区域范围内植被生长状况	+
		单位面积林木蓄积量 $x 19$	森林面积/土地总面积,表征区域范围内植被覆盖度	+
	社会可接受性	公路用地面积 $x 20$	区域范围内公路用地总面积,表征公路对社会发展的支撑性	+
		城市面积 $x 21$	区域范围内城市总面积,表征土地资源对城市发展的直接供应	+/-
		普通中学在校学生数 $x 22$	普通中学在校学生总数,表征土地对社会教育发展的支撑	+
		医疗卫生机构床位数 $x 23$	医疗卫生机构床位总数,表征土地对社会医疗发展的支撑	+

表2

图3

表3

表4

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

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类型	土地可持续利用^[28,32]	土地利用多功能^[45,46]	土地利用系统^[47,48,49]
研究对象	不同土地利用方式与强度形成的土地利用效率	不同土地利用方式与强度提供的各类产品或服务	以人类为行为主体的土地与经济、社会、生态交互循环复合系统
研究需求	解析土地利用可持续性,服务土地利用决策	解析土地利用的功能属性,指导土地利用宏观布局及空间发展战略	解析系统运行机制及与人类活动的互馈关系,服务人地关系协调发展
研究内容	土地利用维持动态平衡和持续发展的能力,即在保持自身稳定的前提下可达到效益最大化的能力	土地利用产生环境、经济和社会功能的状态和表现,提供各类产品或服务的能力	包含土地资源特性、功能属性、利用方式与强度等在内的人地相互作用关系
评价思路	评估土地可持续利用水平,寻求土地资源可持续发展方式	依据土地利用主导用途方向,促进土地利用功能协调	以土地利用系统内涵解析为基础,解析系统内部运行机制及对人地耦合巨系统的支撑作用
异同点	强调土地集约化及高效利用,归属于土地利用系统的要素、格局与服务层	强调土地提供的各项产品与服务,归属于土地利用系统的要素及服务层	强调人地耦合系统下土地利用发挥的作用及对人类主体的支撑能力,归属于人地耦合系统的运行基础及支撑体系

数据类型	来源	选用时间	空间分辨率
土地利用数据	山东省土地利用调查数据	2012年、2018年	1:10000
社会经济数据	山东省统计年鉴	2013年、2019年	县级
	山东省各市统计年鉴	2013年、2019年	县级
	中国农村统计年鉴	2013年、2019年	县级
EVI（MOD09A1）	https://search.earthdata.nasa.gov	2012年、2018年	500 m

土地利用系统对区域可持续发展的支撑力评价：方法与实证

Evaluation of the support capacity of land use system on regional sustainable development: Methods and empirical evidence

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参考文献 72

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2012年
公因子1	公因子2	公因子3	公因子4	公因子5	公因子6
耕地总面积	固定资产投资	耕作可达性	人口密度	植被生产力	水面面积占比
粮食总产量	土地生产力	有效灌溉面积	人均建设用地面积	单位面积林木蓄积量	普通中学在校学生数
设施农用地面积	城市面积	土地退化指数	人均耕地面积	公路用地面积	医疗卫生床位数
土地总面积	人均GDP	农业机械总动力	人均粮食产量
第一产业增加值
30.382	46.611	59.014	69.040	74.955	79.861
2018年
公因子1	公因子2	公因子3	公因子4	公因子5	公因子6
耕地总面积	人均GDP	水面面积占比	人口密度	人均建设用地面积	设施农用地面积
粮食总产量	固定资产投资	土地退化指数	土地生产力	单位面积林木蓄积量	农业机械总动力
人均耕地面积	公路用地面积	植被生产力	第一产业增加值	普通中学在校学生数	耕作可达性
土地总面积	城市面积		人均粮食产量	医疗卫生床位数	有效灌溉面积
30.492	47.011	58.657	68.483	75.644	80.780

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