基于生态约束的城市开发边界模拟研究——以南京为例

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20211114

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市开发边界划定是国土空间规划的重要内容,也是实施国土空间管治、城乡建设管理和生态安全管控的关键抓手,对于推动城市空间高质量发展具有基础性和约束性作用。综合利用回归分析模型、InVEST模型和CA模型,探索构建基于生态约束的城市开发边界划定方法,并以南京市中心城区为例,在评价城市生态用地重要性和建设用地空间扩展潜力基础上,开展不同目标年份的城市用地扩张模拟,据此划定城市开发边界。研究表明：城市建设用地扩张具有动态性、复杂性、系统性特征,受到多因子相互作用,基于生态约束的城市开发边界模拟能够兼顾城市空间发展需求和居民高品质生态环境诉求,促进城市发展与生态保护相统一、人口经济和资源环境相协调,有助于丰富城市开发边界划定方法研究,为国土空间规划编制提供科学参考。

关键词: 城市开发边界, 生态约束, 扩张潜力, 模型模拟, 空间管控

Abstract:

The delineation of urban development boundary is an important part of land spatial planning, and also a key to the implementation of land spatial governance, urban and rural development management, and ecological security management and control. It plays a fundamental and restrictive role in promoting the high-quality development of urban space. This article takes the central urban area of Nanjing as an example, and the logistic regression analysis model, InVEST model and CA model were used to explore and construct a method of urban development boundary delineation based on ecological constraints. According to the evaluation of the importance of urban ecological land and the spatial expansion potential of construction land, a simulation of urban land expansion in different target years was carried out to delineate urban development boundary. The results show that the expansion of urban construction land has dynamic, complex and systematic characteristics, and is subject to multi-factor interactions. The urban development boundary simulation based on ecological constraints can take into account the needs of urban space development and residents' high-quality ecological environment demands, promote the unification of urban development and ecological protection, the coordination of population economy and resources and the environment, and help enrich the delineation methods of urban development boundary research, which provide scientific reference for the preparation of land spatial planning.

Key words: urban development boundary, ecological constraints, expansion potential, model simulation, space control

孙伟, 刘崇刚, 王苏宁. 基于生态约束的城市开发边界模拟研究——以南京为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(11): 2913-2925.

SUN Wei, LIU Chong-gang, WANG Su-ning. Simulation research of urban development boundary based on ecological constraints: A case study of Nanjing[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(11): 2913-2925.

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类别	评价因子	单位
人口	常住人口密度	人/km²
人口	人口活动分布	人/km²
经济	经济变化	亿元
区位	距市中心的距离	km
区位	距区中心的距离	km
基础设施分布	距主干道距离	km
	公交站点核密度	个/km²
	地铁站点核密度	个/km²
	医疗卫生点核密度	个/km²
	教育点核密度	个/km²
	商服点核密度	个/km²

解释变量	回归系数	标准误差	Wald统计量	自由度	显著性水平	发生比率
常住人口密度	1.42	0.27	22.63	1	<0.001	3.65
人口活动分布	17.96	4.1	41.29	1	<0.001	1.95
经济变化	3.72	0.08	290.42	1	<0.001	3.55
距区中心距离	-0.18	0.09	3.62	1	0.05	0.9
距主干道距离	-0.4	0.078	2.74	1	<0.001	0.57
公交站点核密度	0.61	0.23	4.56	1	0.006	1.92
地铁站点核密度	0.6	0.2	12.52	1	0.001	1.54
教育点核密度	-1.7	0.44	13.01	1	<0.001	0.2
常量	1.24	1.03	56.5	1	<0.001	2060.1