基于地理探测器的中国国家级开发区时空演化过程及其驱动力研究

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20211015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

各种类型的开发区是我国改革开放的“试验田”和经济快速发展的重要空间载体,其空间分布格局一直是国内外关注的热点问题,但对其中长时间尺度的空间演化过程研究相对较少,而后者是理解中国经济空间演化的重要基础。运用最邻近指数、核密度指数和地理探测器等方法,总结了中国国家级开发区空间演化的过程及其驱动力因子。研究的主要结论是：各类国家级开发区的时空演化经历了三个阶段,即起步试点阶段、稳步推进阶段和快速推广阶段;政策上实现了从试点探索到面上推广;空间上呈现出从东部沿海向沿江、沿边以及内陆不断拓展,从东部向中西部推进,从省会城市向地级市递进的特征;开发区的时空演化格局是距离、城市等级、经济实力、开放程度等因素综合作用的结果,其中城市等级、开放程度和经济发展水平是核心影响因子,距离和经济密度是次级影响因子;不同类型的开发区核心驱动因子既存在共同性,同时因为定位、功能不同也具有差异性。

关键词: 开发区, 时空演化, 地理探测器, 驱动力

Abstract:

Various types of national development zones have acted as test fields of China's reform and opening-up and an important carrier of rapid economic development over the past 40 years. The spatial distribution of national development zones has always been a hot topic in domestic and international academic communities. Spatial evolution is an important basis for understanding the spatial evolution of Chinese economy, but little attention was paid to it before. Using nearest neighbor analysis, kernel density estimation and geodetector methods, this article summarized the spatial evolution process and driving factors of national development zones. The main conclusions of the study are as follows. The spatio-temporal evolution of national development zones has gone through three stages: pilot phase, steady phase and accelerated phase. Policies and governance have been promoted from pilot areas to the rest of the country. In terms of spatial distribution, the evolution process is from the east coast to the river, border, then inland, from Eastern China to the central and western regions, and from provincial capitals to prefecture-level cities. The evolution is the result of the interaction of factors such as distance, city level, economic development level and openness. Among them, city level, openness and economic development level are the core driving factors, while distance and economic density are the secondary driving factors. Different types of national development zones have generalities and differences due to their function and orientation.

Key words: national development zones, spatio-temporal evolution, geodetector, driving factor

张若琰, 刘卫东, 宋周莺. 基于地理探测器的中国国家级开发区时空演化过程及其驱动力研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(10): 2672-2683.

ZHANG Ruo-yan, LIU Wei-dong, SONG Zhou-ying. Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of national development zones of China based on geodetectors[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(10): 2672-2683.

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阶段划分	R三类开发区	R经开区	R高新区	R海关特殊监管区
第一阶段	0.8510	1.0174	1.1121	—
第二阶段	0.4365	0.7349	0.8426	0.9897
第三阶段	0.3834	0.7845	0.8344	0.5017
第四阶段	0.3167	0.5738	0.6090	0.4794

影响因素	影响因子	代码	分级
距离	距沿海城市的距离/km	X₁	5
距离	距核心城市的距离/km	X₂	5
等级	城市规模：城市常住人口总数/人	X₃	5
等级	城市行政级别：直辖市、副省级城市、地级市	X₄	3
经济实力	GDP总值/亿元	X₅	5
	人均GDP/(元/人)	X₆	5
	地均GDP/(万元/km²)	X₇	5
开放程度	进出口总额/万美元	X₈	5
	实际利用外商直接投资/万美元	X₉	5
	进出口总额/GDP/%	X₁₀	5
	实际利用外商直接投资/GDP/%	X₁₁	5

探测因子	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	X₁₁
q statistic	0.34	0.43	0.51	0.56	0.53	0.41	0.49	0.55	0.57	0.40	0.41
p value	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

2000年以前			2000—2009年			2010—2018年
核心因子	q statistic	p value	核心因子	q statistic	p value	核心因子	q statistic	p value
X₂	0.65	0.00	X₂	0.53	0.00	X₂	0.44	0.00
X₃	0.40	0.00	X₃	0.52	0.00	X₃	0.51	0.00
X₄	0.75	0.00	X₄	0.70	0.00	X₄	0.57	0.00
X₅	0.60	0.00	X₅	0.51	0.00	X₅	0.52	0.00
X₈	0.65	0.00	X₁₀	0.56	0.00	X₁₀	0.55	0.00

经开区			高新区			海关特殊监管区
核心因子	q statistic	p value	核心因子	q statistic	p value	核心因子	q statistic	p value
X₄	0.59	0.00	X₂	0.63	0.00	X₁	0.39	0.00
X₈	0.57	0.00	X₄	0.60	0.00	X₁₀	0.36	0.00
X₉	0.55	0.00	X₅	0.52	0.00	X₄	0.33	0.00
X₁₀	0.55	0.00	X₈	0.48	0.00	X₅	0.30	0.00
X₂	0.53	0.00	X₉	0.43	0.00	X₈	0.29	0.00