秦岭生态屏障产水服务时空演变特征及驱动要素

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20211005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

秦岭是我国重要的“中央水塔”,是南水北调的重要水源地。基于InVEST模型评估2000—2018年秦岭地区产水服务,分析其时空演变特征,利用相关性分析和地理加权回归方法（GWR）探究不同因素对秦岭地区产水服务变化的影响。结果表明：秦岭地区多年平均产水量为235.16 mm,19年间产水量呈现微弱下降趋势,产水量在空间上表现为由南部向北减少的特点。秦岭地区产水量波动程度和变化趋势都较弱,产水服务整体比较稳定。各因素对产水量的影响具有明显的空间异质性,降水主导的范围最大（33.18%）,且集中分布于产水量较多的秦岭南侧。其次为NPP（17.90%）和实际蒸散量（16.71%）,两者在中北部地区是主要影响因素。研究结果对促进区域生态安全和可持续发展具有一定的指导意义。

关键词: 生态系统服务, 产水量, 时空异质性, 驱动因素, 秦岭屏障区

Abstract:

The Qinling Mountains region, an important water conservation region and ecological function support region, as well as a major ecological barrier in China, plays a critical role in conserving water resources. Based on the data of meteorology and land use, this paper estimates the water yield service in the Qinling region based on InVEST model, and uses spatio-temporal analysis method and geographically weighted regression (GWR) to discuss the variation characteristics and driving factors of water-producing services in the study region from 2000 to 2018. The results show that the average annual water yield in Qinling is 235.16 mm, showing a weak downward trend in 2019 with the highest value (470.17 mm) in 2003 and the lowest (75.57 mm) in 2007. The spatial distribution of water yield gradually decreased from the south to the north with obvious "stepped" distribution characteristics. The change trend of water yield has an insignificant increase and decrease (95.99%), and a small number of regions with a significant increase are formed at higher altitude in the Central and Western Qinling region. There are obvious spatial differences in the fluctuation of water yield in the region, which present a trend of "higher in the north than in the south, mainly with medium and low fluctuation and strong fluctuation in the northwest". The influence of various factors on water production services has obvious spatial heterogeneity. The study region is dominated by precipitation (33.18%), which is concentrated in the southern part of Qinling Mountains with more water production, followed by NPP (17.90%) and actual evapotranspiration (16.71%), which are the main influencing factors in the Central and Northern Qinling Mountains. The research results provide theoretical and technical support for the safety and sustainable utilization of water resources in the Qinling region.

Key words: ecosystem services, water yield, spatio-temporal heterogeneity, driving factors, Qinling Mountains barrier region

王晓峰, 符鑫鑫, 楚冰洋, 李月皓, 延雨, 冯晓明. 秦岭生态屏障产水服务时空演变特征及驱动要素[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(10): 2507-2521.

WANG Xiao-feng, FU Xin-xin, CHU Bing-yang, LI Yue-hao, YAN Yu, FENG Xiao-ming. Spatio-temporal variation of water yield and its driving factors in Qinling Mountains barrier region[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(10): 2507-2521.

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流域	平均海拔/m	平均降水/mm	耕/林/草地占比/%	平均产水量/mm
河源至玛曲	3742.05	687.28	0/6/90	141.15
大夏河与洮河	3153.08	613.09	11/35/51	77.65
渭河宝鸡峡以上	2084.54	564.90	31/24/42	57.06
渭河宝鸡峡至咸阳	1702.31	743.37	6/65/29	166.12
渭河咸阳至潼关	1371.40	699.94	18/41/39	85.87
龙门至三门峡干流区间	1083.33	653.91	20/49/31	95.23
三门峡至小浪底区间	878.91	596.95	23/36/40	59.14
伊洛河	882.27	718.47	32/45/19	149.02
小浪底至花园口干流区间	341.31	675.06	34/23/39	185.51
王蚌区间北岸	499.01	774.53	43/38/13	238.41
青衣江和岷江干流	3123.93	849.83	4/43/52	380.18
沱江	2061.77	1019.32	11/71/16	632.97
广元昭化以上	2032.98	653.49	20/36/42	93.18
涪江	2080.98	805.42	12/57/30	274.00
渠江	1134.33	1217.35	32/49/19	590.96
广元昭化以下干流	1322.71	983.36	23/56/20	401.45
宜宾至宜昌干流	1069.97	1069.20	21/68/10	459.57
丹江口以上	993.80	859.18	22/45/31	231.00
唐白河	536.05	892.00	29/59/8	288.21
丹江口以下干流	775.30	911.63	12/83/3	280.03
宜昌至武汉左岸	543.51	1057.67	14/80/3	438.51

模型参数	赤池信息准则AICc	残差估计平方差Sigma	R²	校正R²
OLS模型	3197	0.3461	0.8784	0.8782
GWR模型	1812	0.2952	0.9134	0.9117

主导因素	降水	蒸散量	NDVI	NPP	气压	辐射量	温度	风速
面积/km²	110345	48194	7307	52508	8046	31401	13111	15345
面积占比/%	38.55	16.84	2.55	18.34	2.81	10.97	4.58	5.36

流域	降水	蒸散量	NDVI	NPP	气压	辐射量	温度	风速
河源至玛曲	2.75	0	0	79.16	0.00	18.09	0	0
大夏河与洮河	0	0	0	5.90	5.54	88.56	0	0
渭河宝鸡峡以上	0	0.22	0	0	23.61	61.81	14.36	0
渭河宝鸡峡至咸阳	0	99.56	0	0	0.44	0	0	0
渭河咸阳至潼关	0	62.16	0	0	0	0	0	37.84
龙门至三门峡干流区间	0	0	0	5.59	0	0	0	94.41
三门峡至小浪底区间	0	0	0	100.00	0	0	0	0
伊洛河	0	0	10.28	53.03	0	0	0	36.69
小浪底至花园口干流区间	0	0	100.00	0	0	0	0	0
王蚌区间北岸	0	0	69.68	30.18	0	0.14	0	0
青衣江和岷江干流	97.23	0	0	2.77	0	0.	0	0
沱江	100.00	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
广元昭化以上	29.08	0.79	0	20.86	8.33	20.79	20.16	0
涪江	100.00	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
渠江	92.09	0	0	0	0	7.91	0	0
广元昭化以下干流	53.83	46.17	0	0	0	0	0	0
宜宾至宜昌干流	65.90	33.59	0	0	0	0.51	0	0
丹江口以上	33.63	36.76	0	22.50	0.42	0.10	0.05	6.53
唐白河	8.44	0	2.93	88.63	0	0	0	0
丹江口以下干流	70.31	0	0	29.69	0	0	0	0
宜昌至武汉左岸	98.37	1.63	0	0	0	0	0	0