自然资源学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 2152-2162.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210818

• 其他研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

安徽省冬季采暖耗能对全球气候变暖的响应

唐为安1,2(), 丁小俊1,2, 程文杰3, 谢五三1,2, 王胜1,2, 卢燕宇1,2,4()   

  1. 1.安徽省气候中心,合肥 230031
    2.安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,合肥 230031
    3.合肥市气象局,合肥 230031
    4.安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥 230031
  • 收稿日期:2020-01-20 修回日期:2020-06-17 出版日期:2021-08-28 发布日期:2021-10-28
  • 通讯作者: 卢燕宇(1981- ),男,安徽霍邱人,博士,正高级工程师,主要从事气候变化和气象灾害风险研究。E-mail: ahqxlyy@163.com
    卢燕宇(1981- ),男,安徽霍邱人,博士,正高级工程师,主要从事气候变化和气象灾害风险研究。E-mail: ahqxlyy@163.com
    卢燕宇(1981- ),男,安徽霍邱人,博士,正高级工程师,主要从事气候变化和气象灾害风险研究。E-mail: ahqxlyy@163.com
  • 作者简介:唐为安(1980- ),男,江苏阜宁人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事气候变化和气象灾害风险研究。E-mail: twa1980@mail.ustc.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省自然科学基金项目(1908085MD109);安徽省重点研究和开发计划(201904a07020099);安徽省气象局气象科技发展基金项目(KM201713)

Response of energy consumption of winter heating to global climate warming in Anhui province

TANG Wei-an1,2(), DING Xiao-jun1,2, CHENG Wen-jie3, XIE Wu-san1,2, WANG Sheng1,2, LU Yan-yu1,2,4()   

  1. 1. Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China
    2. Anhui Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing, Hefei 230031, China
    3. Hefei Meteorological Bureau, Hefei 230031, China
    4. Anhui Institute of Meteorological Science, Hefei 230031, China
  • Received:2020-01-20 Revised:2020-06-17 Online:2021-08-28 Published:2021-10-28

摘要:

基于1971—2018年安徽省77个气象站均一化日平均温度资料,采用趋势分析等方法,研究气候变暖对冬季采暖耗能的影响。结果表明:近48年安徽省冬季显著增暖,采暖初日推迟、终日提前,采暖期长度缩短,采暖强度显著下降。冬季温度在1989年发生突变,此后进入升温通道,因而将研究序列划分为基准时段(1971—1989年)和变暖期(1990—2018年)。相比于基准时段,变暖期内采暖期长度呈现空间一致性缩短,变化幅度自东北向西南递减,皖北北部及江淮之间东部缩短程度最大,大别山及皖南山区为全省低值区。全省采暖强度均减少,减少幅度自北向南递减。采暖节能贡献率介于3.6%~8.9%之间,高值区主要位于皖北北部、江淮之间北部和沿江东部,低值区则位于大别山及皖南两大山区。

关键词: 气候变暖, 采暖期长度, 采暖强度, 节能贡献率, 安徽省

Abstract:

In this paper, the impact of global climate warming on energy consumption of winter heating was systematically analyzed by using M-K mutation test and linear trend analysis based on the homogenized daily mean temperature derived from 77 meteorological observation stations in Anhui province during 1971-2018. The results showed that in the past 48 years, winter mean temperature showed a significant upward trend, while the beginning date of winter heating was delayed and the ending date advanced obviously. Meanwhile, the length of winter heating had been shortened and heating intensity presented an observably decreasing trend. The abrupt change in winter mean temperature was observed in 1989, and then entered the warming channel. Therefore, the research sequence was divided into the baseline period (1971-1989) and the warming period (1990-2018). Compared with the baseline period, the length of winter heating in the warming period was shortened in spatial consistency, and change range gradually decreased from northeast to southwest, with the maximum over the north of Anhui province and the east of Jiang-Huai region and the minimum over two mountainous areas (Dabie Mountain and the mountainous areas of southern Anhui). The heating intensity decreased on the whole and with a larger decrease in the northern part and a smaller decrease in the southern part. The contribution rates of climate warming on the energy saving for heating in winter were 3.6%-8.9%, with the high value in the north of Anhui, the northern Jiang-Huai region and the eastern Yangtze River Basin, while the low value areas were mainly located in the two mountainous areas.

Key words: climate warming, length of winter heating, intensity of winter heating, the rate of energy saving for winter heating, Anhui province