自然资源学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 2065-2080.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210812
收稿日期:
2020-05-24
修回日期:
2020-10-31
出版日期:
2021-08-28
发布日期:
2021-10-28
通讯作者:
许进龙(1991- ),男,广西百色人,硕士,助教,研究方向为土地利用与区域经济等。E-mail: 578501979@qq.com作者简介:
黄天能(1986- ),男,广西百色人,博士,讲师,研究方向为土地利用与资源经济等。E-mail: 505362152@qq.com
基金资助:
HUANG Tian-neng1(), XU Jin-long2(
), XIE Ling-ling2
Received:
2020-05-24
Revised:
2020-10-31
Online:
2021-08-28
Published:
2021-10-28
摘要:
产业结构转型升级是资源枯竭城市实现可持续发展的必由之路,产业结构转型升级水平测度及其影响因素研究,则是精准制定产业转型政策的重要依据。基于2008—2017年我国24座资源枯竭地级市的面板数据,从方向、速率及水平三方面测算其产业结构转型升级状况,并运用固定效应模型探究产业结构转型升级的影响因素,结果表明:(1)我国多数资源枯竭城市主要向第三产业转型,少数城市注重培育多产融合的转型模式;(2)我国资源枯竭城市2013—2017年产业结构转型升级速率整体较2008—2012年快,转型升级速率呈加快趋势,但各地区及城市之间存在一定差异性;(3)我国资源枯竭城市产业结构高级化指数总体呈上升态势,产业结构不断优化升级,但整体水平始终低于全国平均水平,并呈东部较高、中西部和东北部较低的空间分异特征;(4)就业总人数、财政支出占GDP比例、社会消费品零售总额、城镇人口比例对资源枯竭城市产业结构转型升级呈正向影响效应,固定资产投资总额呈负向影响效应。
黄天能, 许进龙, 谢凌凌. 资源枯竭城市产业结构转型升级水平测度及其影响因素——基于24座地级市的面板数据[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(8): 2065-2080.
HUANG Tian-neng, XU Jin-long, XIE Ling-ling. Research on measurement of industrial structural transformation and upgrading level in resource-exhausted cities and its influencing factors:Based on panel data of 24 prefecture-level cities of China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(8): 2065-2080.
表2
24座资源枯竭地级市三次产业超前系数
区域 | 城市 | T1=2008—2012年 | T2=2013—2017年 | Tall=2008—2017年 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
一产 | 二产 | 三产 | 一产 | 二产 | 三产 | 一产 | 二产 | 三产 | ||
东北 | 阜新市 | 1.022 | 1.724 | 0.219 | 0.953 | 5.212 | -5.062 | 0.836 | -1.372 | 3.614 |
盘锦市 | -0.029 | 0.539 | 3.539 | 1.878 | 7.975 | -18.818 | -0.563 | -1.638 | 12.978 | |
抚顺市 | 1.190 | 1.340 | 0.436 | 3.350 | 2.125 | -1.482 | -0.905 | 0.285 | 2.462 | |
辽源市 | -0.958 | 1.656 | 0.766 | -3.990 | -0.329 | 4.696 | -1.054 | 1.375 | 1.249 | |
白山市 | -0.624 | 1.392 | 0.921 | -0.986 | -12.367 | 26.286 | -0.474 | 0.471 | 2.484 | |
伊春市 | 4.626 | 0.236 | -0.819 | -9.538 | 22.885 | -9.637 | 6.947 | -4.578 | 1.314 | |
七台河市 | 1.779 | 0.938 | 0.886 | -5.711 | 20.984 | -19.658 | 10.990 | -6.209 | 11.376 | |
鹤岗市 | 2.497 | 1.587 | -0.908 | -2.941 | 10.846 | -11.539 | 4.570 | -1.858 | 2.194 | |
双鸭山市 | 1.242 | 1.354 | 0.108 | -0.206 | 11.723 | -7.467 | 2.094 | -2.703 | 5.878 | |
均值 | 1.194 | 1.196 | 0.572 | -1.910 | 7.673 | -4.742 | 2.493 | -1.803 | 4.839 | |
东部 | 枣庄市 | 0.437 | 0.194 | 2.950 | -1.527 | -0.570 | 4.120 | -0.195 | -0.042 | 3.674 |
韶关市 | 0.939 | -0.102 | 2.434 | 0.773 | -0.981 | 2.949 | 0.509 | -0.180 | 2.691 | |
均值 | 0.688 | 0.046 | 2.692 | -0.377 | -0.776 | 3.535 | 0.157 | -0.111 | 3.183 | |
中部 | 淮北市 | -0.136 | 1.727 | -0.071 | -1.260 | -1.404 | 8.299 | -0.403 | 0.745 | 1.966 |
铜陵市 | -0.803 | 1.629 | -0.237 | 13.293 | -0.280 | 3.749 | 3.601 | 0.692 | 1.459 | |
萍乡市 | -0.039 | 0.815 | 1.702 | -2.386 | -1.146 | 5.503 | -0.626 | 0.130 | 3.352 | |
景德镇市 | -0.139 | 1.117 | 1.122 | -2.359 | -1.329 | 5.755 | -0.600 | 0.341 | 2.671 | |
新余市 | -0.489 | 0.897 | 1.647 | 1.000 | -1.021 | 4.270 | 0.014 | 0.034 | 3.489 | |
焦作市 | 0.632 | 1.193 | 0.602 | -2.203 | -0.541 | 6.196 | -0.465 | 0.403 | 3.071 | |
濮阳市 | 1.000 | 0.817 | 1.619 | -1.394 | -1.053 | 9.080 | -0.220 | 0.107 | 4.871 | |
黄石市 | 1.510 | 2.104 | -0.606 | 0.732 | -0.100 | 3.286 | 1.464 | 1.306 | 0.993 | |
均值 | 0.192 | 1.287 | 0.722 | 0.678 | -0.859 | 5.767 | 0.346 | 0.470 | 2.734 | |
西部 | 乌海市 | -0.304 | 1.567 | -0.104 | 25.275 | -8.062 | 18.329 | 1.022 | 0.375 | 2.269 |
泸州市 | -1.049 | 2.525 | -0.029 | -0.916 | -0.385 | 5.135 | -0.797 | 1.389 | 1.604 | |
铜川市 | 0.553 | 1.560 | 0.074 | 2.496 | -10.517 | 29.605 | 0.698 | 0.372 | 2.224 | |
白银市 | 0.276 | 1.121 | 1.070 | -30.697 | 39.704 | 2.671 | 0.025 | -1.174 | 4.522 | |
石嘴山市 | 0.596 | 0.181 | 3.828 | 0.026 | -0.401 | 4.166 | 0.440 | 0.102 | 4.130 | |
均值 | 0.014 | 1.391 | 0.968 | -0.763 | 4.068 | 11.981 | 0.278 | 0.213 | 2.950 |
表3
24个资源枯竭地级市产业结构变化速率
区域 | 城市 | 产业结构变动向量夹角α/(°) | 产业结构年均变动率 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | T2 | Tall | T1 | T2 | Tall | ||
东北 | 阜新市 | 7.746 | 25.711 | 17.641 | 2.309 | 7.720 | 2.700 |
盘锦市 | 5.750 | 21.921 | 28.097 | 2.494 | 7.680 | 5.200 | |
抚顺市 | 3.346 | 8.152 | 4.975 | 1.189 | 3.000 | 0.920 | |
辽源市 | 6.121 | 3.035 | 6.209 | 2.480 | 1.160 | 1.280 | |
白山市 | 3.481 | 10.912 | 9.851 | 1.400 | 3.700 | 1.820 | |
伊春市 | 10.554 | 13.991 | 21.172 | 3.400 | 4.720 | 3.180 | |
七台河市 | 0.753 | 11.588 | 20.636 | 0.320 | 3.760 | 3.274 | |
鹤岗市 | 11.028 | 17.120 | 15.422 | 3.760 | 5.520 | 2.520 | |
双鸭山市 | 4.558 | 28.277 | 26.824 | 1.560 | 8.588 | 4.380 | |
均值 | 5.926 | 15.634 | 16.759 | 2.101 | 5.094 | 2.808 | |
东部 | 枣庄市 | 5.954 | 6.964 | 14.362 | 2.685 | 2.504 | 2.600 |
韶关市 | 7.966 | 8.394 | 15.606 | 2.480 | 2.360 | 2.560 | |
均值 | 6.960 | 7.679 | 14.984 | 2.583 | 2.432 | 2.580 | |
中部 | 淮北市 | 5.797 | 12.624 | 6.530 | 2.388 | 4.739 | 1.260 |
铜陵市 | 5.734 | 9.632 | 4.845 | 2.520 | 4.360 | 1.100 | |
萍乡市 | 3.036 | 11.860 | 16.571 | 1.200 | 4.280 | 3.060 | |
景德镇市 | 1.519 | 11.168 | 12.858 | 0.663 | 4.000 | 2.380 | |
新余市 | 3.017 | 9.115 | 17.281 | 1.200 | 3.080 | 3.120 | |
焦作市 | 1.140 | 10.015 | 9.767 | 0.520 | 3.920 | 1.920 | |
濮阳市 | 1.229 | 15.269 | 16.164 | 0.480 | 5.760 | 3.080 | |
黄石市 | 10.300 | 4.931 | 4.784 | 3.640 | 1.744 | 0.860 | |
均值 | 3.972 | 10.577 | 11.100 | 1.576 | 3.985 | 2.098 | |
西部 | 乌海市 | 6.925 | 8.727 | 9.243 | 2.880 | 3.280 | 1.700 |
泸州市 | 12.027 | 9.634 | 9.777 | 4.800 | 3.520 | 1.860 | |
铜川市 | 6.142 | 16.999 | 10.128 | 2.400 | 6.040 | 1.760 | |
白银市 | 1.182 | 18.212 | 21.840 | 0.480 | 6.236 | 3.472 | |
石嘴山市 | 7.843 | 4.546 | 12.869 | 3.160 | 1.691 | 2.520 | |
均值 | 6.824 | 11.624 | 12.771 | 2.744 | 4.153 | 2.262 |
表4
24个资源枯竭地级市产业结构高级化指数
区域 | 城市 | 产业结构高级化(IH)指数 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008年 | 2009年 | 2010年 | 2011年 | 2012年 | 2013年 | 2014年 | 2015年 | 2016年 | 2017年 | ||
东北 | 阜新市 | 125.169 | 123.834 | 117.572 | 117.361 | 116.576 | 116.825 | 122.305 | 127.494 | 140.346 | 141.002 |
盘锦市 | 101.233 | 104.296 | 108.752 | 107.102 | 107.839 | 108.443 | 120.233 | 123.279 | 132.484 | 130.855 | |
抚顺市 | 122.112 | 123.445 | 120.003 | 118.197 | 118.693 | 118.822 | 124.558 | 130.524 | 129.807 | 127.229 | |
辽源市 | 119.520 | 118.857 | 119.124 | 117.358 | 117.380 | 117.762 | 118.278 | 119.603 | 120.584 | 120.966 | |
白山市 | 117.420 | 118.274 | 114.577 | 116.352 | 116.679 | 116.978 | 117.427 | 119.526 | 122.007 | 128.121 | |
伊春市 | 114.063 | 113.864 | 111.860 | 111.086 | 110.892 | 113.290 | 113.776 | 121.398 | 121.009 | 121.325 | |
七台河市 | 117.195 | 112.878 | 110.965 | 112.214 | 116.803 | 128.633 | 134.510 | 138.017 | 139.934 | 140.036 | |
鹤岗市 | 116.742 | 111.806 | 107.822 | 103.837 | 99.758 | 104.946 | 113.872 | 117.554 | 119.080 | 120.557 | |
双鸭山市 | 103.151 | 103.865 | 102.587 | 96.397 | 95.875 | 96.827 | 102.250 | 123.596 | 128.404 | 129.448 | |
均值 | 115.178 | 114.569 | 112.585 | 111.100 | 111.166 | 113.614 | 118.579 | 124.555 | 128.184 | 128.838 | |
东部 | 枣庄市 | 113.124 | 114.237 | 116.410 | 118.312 | 119.428 | 120.853 | 122.537 | 126.212 | 128.050 | 128.091 |
韶关市 | 125.074 | 134.860 | 132.980 | 131.806 | 133.335 | 136.997 | 137.457 | 140.617 | 141.409 | 141.572 | |
均值 | 119.099 | 124.549 | 124.695 | 125.059 | 126.382 | 128.925 | 129.997 | 133.415 | 134.730 | 134.832 | |
中部 | 淮北市 | 115.254 | 113.847 | 111.128 | 109.611 | 110.038 | 109.032 | 109.822 | 116.647 | 121.771 | 122.165 |
铜陵市 | 114.207 | 113.387 | 109.031 | 107.334 | 108.542 | 109.469 | 110.332 | 113.496 | 120.400 | 118.633 | |
萍乡市 | 113.778 | 114.480 | 113.300 | 111.183 | 117.007 | 118.822 | 119.549 | 122.047 | 124.068 | 130.998 | |
景德镇市 | 117.447 | 118.009 | 116.015 | 113.838 | 117.913 | 119.408 | 120.029 | 121.596 | 123.010 | 130.923 | |
新余市 | 112.608 | 119.937 | 114.693 | 111.759 | 115.642 | 121.222 | 121.737 | 124.042 | 125.239 | 130.397 | |
焦作市 | 109.399 | 110.345 | 107.510 | 106.814 | 108.353 | 109.186 | 109.498 | 117.086 | 119.845 | 119.699 | |
濮阳市 | 102.792 | 104.556 | 102.649 | 101.783 | 104.152 | 104.110 | 103.792 | 117.040 | 118.597 | 121.212 | |
黄石市 | 125.436 | 126.422 | 120.611 | 115.008 | 114.856 | 115.393 | 117.237 | 121.784 | 122.005 | 120.452 | |
均值 | 113.865 | 115.123 | 111.867 | 109.666 | 112.063 | 113.330 | 114.000 | 119.217 | 121.867 | 124.310 | |
西部 | 乌海市 | 116.199 | 113.685 | 110.830 | 109.567 | 109.285 | 116.728 | 118.909 | 126.417 | 126.893 | 125.445 |
泸州市 | 114.977 | 116.521 | 112.797 | 109.783 | 109.516 | 110.641 | 111.198 | 112.670 | 113.763 | 121.496 | |
铜川市 | 117.745 | 116.955 | 115.258 | 113.567 | 111.681 | 110.932 | 112.721 | 118.917 | 127.099 | 128.091 | |
白银市 | 116.568 | 117.999 | 118.682 | 116.751 | 116.874 | 119.817 | 125.140 | 130.274 | 135.714 | 137.144 | |
石嘴山市 | 106.158 | 113.423 | 116.119 | 114.427 | 114.178 | 114.674 | 113.947 | 115.240 | 116.488 | 119.293 | |
均值 | 114.329 | 115.717 | 114.737 | 112.819 | 112.307 | 114.558 | 116.383 | 120.704 | 123.991 | 126.294 | |
全国平均值 | 127.709 | 130.740 | 131.133 | 131.230 | 133.143 | 135.019 | 137.372 | 140.159 | 141.343 | 141.030 |
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