资源枯竭城市产业结构转型升级水平测度及其影响因素——基于24座地级市的面板数据

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210812

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

产业结构转型升级是资源枯竭城市实现可持续发展的必由之路,产业结构转型升级水平测度及其影响因素研究,则是精准制定产业转型政策的重要依据。基于2008—2017年我国24座资源枯竭地级市的面板数据,从方向、速率及水平三方面测算其产业结构转型升级状况,并运用固定效应模型探究产业结构转型升级的影响因素,结果表明：（1）我国多数资源枯竭城市主要向第三产业转型,少数城市注重培育多产融合的转型模式;（2）我国资源枯竭城市2013—2017年产业结构转型升级速率整体较2008—2012年快,转型升级速率呈加快趋势,但各地区及城市之间存在一定差异性;（3）我国资源枯竭城市产业结构高级化指数总体呈上升态势,产业结构不断优化升级,但整体水平始终低于全国平均水平,并呈东部较高、中西部和东北部较低的空间分异特征;（4）就业总人数、财政支出占GDP比例、社会消费品零售总额、城镇人口比例对资源枯竭城市产业结构转型升级呈正向影响效应,固定资产投资总额呈负向影响效应。

关键词: 资源枯竭城市, 可持续发展, 产业结构转型升级, 影响因素

Abstract:

Industrial structural transformation and upgrading is an inevitable path for resource-exhausted cities to realize sustainable development, and researches on measurement of industrial structural transformation and upgrading level in such cities and its influencing factors are important bases of accurate formulation of industrial transformation policies. Based on panel data of 24 resource-exhausted cities in China from 2008 to 2017, conditions of their industrial structural transformations and upgrades are measured from three aspects, namely, direction, velocity and level. In addition, the fixed effect model is adopted to explore influencing factors of industrial structural transformation and upgrading level. The results indicate that: (1) Most of the resource-exhausted cities in China have mainly transformed to the tertiary industry while a small number of cities focus on cultivating the transitional model of multi-industry integration. (2) Compared with the period 2008-2012, the speed of industrial structural transformations and upgrades from 2013 to 2017 was higher, which showed an accelerating trend, but there were differences between regions and cities. (3) Industrial structural transformation and upgrading levels in resource-exhausted cities were on the rise, industrial structures were constantly optimizing and upgrading, and the integral level was lower than the national average level, presenting a spatial pattern of higher in the eastern region, but lower in the central, western and northeastern regions. (4) Total employment, proportion of fiscal expenditures in GDP, total retail sales of consumer goods and proportion of urban population had positive effects on industrial structural transformations and upgrades of resource-exhausted cities, while the total amount of fixed-asset investments had a negative effect on it. The impact of the number of authorized patents is of insignificance.

Key words: resource-exhausted city, sustainable development, industrial structural transformation and upgrading, influence factor

黄天能, 许进龙, 谢凌凌. 资源枯竭城市产业结构转型升级水平测度及其影响因素——基于24座地级市的面板数据[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(8): 2065-2080.

HUANG Tian-neng, XU Jin-long, XIE Ling-ling. Research on measurement of industrial structural transformation and upgrading level in resource-exhausted cities and its influencing factors:Based on panel data of 24 prefecture-level cities of China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(8): 2065-2080.

图/表 7

表1

表2

24座资源枯竭地级市三次产业超前系数

区域	城市	T₁=2008—2012年			T₂=2013—2017年			T_all=2008—2017年
区域	城市	一产	二产	三产	一产	二产	三产	一产	二产	三产
东北	阜新市	1.022	1.724	0.219	0.953	5.212	-5.062	0.836	-1.372	3.614
	盘锦市	-0.029	0.539	3.539	1.878	7.975	-18.818	-0.563	-1.638	12.978
	抚顺市	1.190	1.340	0.436	3.350	2.125	-1.482	-0.905	0.285	2.462
	辽源市	-0.958	1.656	0.766	-3.990	-0.329	4.696	-1.054	1.375	1.249
	白山市	-0.624	1.392	0.921	-0.986	-12.367	26.286	-0.474	0.471	2.484
	伊春市	4.626	0.236	-0.819	-9.538	22.885	-9.637	6.947	-4.578	1.314
	七台河市	1.779	0.938	0.886	-5.711	20.984	-19.658	10.990	-6.209	11.376
	鹤岗市	2.497	1.587	-0.908	-2.941	10.846	-11.539	4.570	-1.858	2.194
	双鸭山市	1.242	1.354	0.108	-0.206	11.723	-7.467	2.094	-2.703	5.878
	均值	1.194	1.196	0.572	-1.910	7.673	-4.742	2.493	-1.803	4.839
东部	枣庄市	0.437	0.194	2.950	-1.527	-0.570	4.120	-0.195	-0.042	3.674
	韶关市	0.939	-0.102	2.434	0.773	-0.981	2.949	0.509	-0.180	2.691
	均值	0.688	0.046	2.692	-0.377	-0.776	3.535	0.157	-0.111	3.183
中部	淮北市	-0.136	1.727	-0.071	-1.260	-1.404	8.299	-0.403	0.745	1.966
	铜陵市	-0.803	1.629	-0.237	13.293	-0.280	3.749	3.601	0.692	1.459
	萍乡市	-0.039	0.815	1.702	-2.386	-1.146	5.503	-0.626	0.130	3.352
	景德镇市	-0.139	1.117	1.122	-2.359	-1.329	5.755	-0.600	0.341	2.671
	新余市	-0.489	0.897	1.647	1.000	-1.021	4.270	0.014	0.034	3.489
	焦作市	0.632	1.193	0.602	-2.203	-0.541	6.196	-0.465	0.403	3.071
	濮阳市	1.000	0.817	1.619	-1.394	-1.053	9.080	-0.220	0.107	4.871
	黄石市	1.510	2.104	-0.606	0.732	-0.100	3.286	1.464	1.306	0.993
	均值	0.192	1.287	0.722	0.678	-0.859	5.767	0.346	0.470	2.734
西部	乌海市	-0.304	1.567	-0.104	25.275	-8.062	18.329	1.022	0.375	2.269
	泸州市	-1.049	2.525	-0.029	-0.916	-0.385	5.135	-0.797	1.389	1.604
	铜川市	0.553	1.560	0.074	2.496	-10.517	29.605	0.698	0.372	2.224
	白银市	0.276	1.121	1.070	-30.697	39.704	2.671	0.025	-1.174	4.522
	石嘴山市	0.596	0.181	3.828	0.026	-0.401	4.166	0.440	0.102	4.130
	均值	0.014	1.391	0.968	-0.763	4.068	11.981	0.278	0.213	2.950

表2

表3

表4

24个资源枯竭地级市产业结构高级化指数

区域	城市	产业结构高级化（IH）指数
区域	城市	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年
东北	阜新市	125.169	123.834	117.572	117.361	116.576	116.825	122.305	127.494	140.346	141.002
	盘锦市	101.233	104.296	108.752	107.102	107.839	108.443	120.233	123.279	132.484	130.855
	抚顺市	122.112	123.445	120.003	118.197	118.693	118.822	124.558	130.524	129.807	127.229
	辽源市	119.520	118.857	119.124	117.358	117.380	117.762	118.278	119.603	120.584	120.966
	白山市	117.420	118.274	114.577	116.352	116.679	116.978	117.427	119.526	122.007	128.121
	伊春市	114.063	113.864	111.860	111.086	110.892	113.290	113.776	121.398	121.009	121.325
	七台河市	117.195	112.878	110.965	112.214	116.803	128.633	134.510	138.017	139.934	140.036
	鹤岗市	116.742	111.806	107.822	103.837	99.758	104.946	113.872	117.554	119.080	120.557
	双鸭山市	103.151	103.865	102.587	96.397	95.875	96.827	102.250	123.596	128.404	129.448
	均值	115.178	114.569	112.585	111.100	111.166	113.614	118.579	124.555	128.184	128.838
东部	枣庄市	113.124	114.237	116.410	118.312	119.428	120.853	122.537	126.212	128.050	128.091
	韶关市	125.074	134.860	132.980	131.806	133.335	136.997	137.457	140.617	141.409	141.572
	均值	119.099	124.549	124.695	125.059	126.382	128.925	129.997	133.415	134.730	134.832
中部	淮北市	115.254	113.847	111.128	109.611	110.038	109.032	109.822	116.647	121.771	122.165
	铜陵市	114.207	113.387	109.031	107.334	108.542	109.469	110.332	113.496	120.400	118.633
	萍乡市	113.778	114.480	113.300	111.183	117.007	118.822	119.549	122.047	124.068	130.998
	景德镇市	117.447	118.009	116.015	113.838	117.913	119.408	120.029	121.596	123.010	130.923
	新余市	112.608	119.937	114.693	111.759	115.642	121.222	121.737	124.042	125.239	130.397
	焦作市	109.399	110.345	107.510	106.814	108.353	109.186	109.498	117.086	119.845	119.699
	濮阳市	102.792	104.556	102.649	101.783	104.152	104.110	103.792	117.040	118.597	121.212
	黄石市	125.436	126.422	120.611	115.008	114.856	115.393	117.237	121.784	122.005	120.452
	均值	113.865	115.123	111.867	109.666	112.063	113.330	114.000	119.217	121.867	124.310
西部	乌海市	116.199	113.685	110.830	109.567	109.285	116.728	118.909	126.417	126.893	125.445
	泸州市	114.977	116.521	112.797	109.783	109.516	110.641	111.198	112.670	113.763	121.496
	铜川市	117.745	116.955	115.258	113.567	111.681	110.932	112.721	118.917	127.099	128.091
	白银市	116.568	117.999	118.682	116.751	116.874	119.817	125.140	130.274	135.714	137.144
	石嘴山市	106.158	113.423	116.119	114.427	114.178	114.674	113.947	115.240	116.488	119.293
	均值	114.329	115.717	114.737	112.819	112.307	114.558	116.383	120.704	123.991	126.294
全国平均值		127.709	130.740	131.133	131.230	133.143	135.019	137.372	140.159	141.343	141.030

表4

表5

表6

表7

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变量设置	变量名称		衡量指标
因变量	产业结构转型升级水平（IND）		产业结构高级化指数（IH）
自变量	供给因素	人力资本水平（LAP）	就业总人数/万人
		财政投入水平（FI）	财政支出/GDP/%
		技术发展水平（TEC）	授权专利数/项
	需求因素	社会消费需求（CON）	社会消费品零售总额/亿元
		社会投资需求（INV）	固定资产投资总额/亿元
		城镇化需求（URB）	城镇人口/总人口/%

区域	城市	产业结构变动向量夹角α/(°)			产业结构年均变动率
区域	城市	T₁	T₂	T_all	T₁	T₂	T_all
东北	阜新市	7.746	25.711	17.641	2.309	7.720	2.700
	盘锦市	5.750	21.921	28.097	2.494	7.680	5.200
	抚顺市	3.346	8.152	4.975	1.189	3.000	0.920
	辽源市	6.121	3.035	6.209	2.480	1.160	1.280
	白山市	3.481	10.912	9.851	1.400	3.700	1.820
	伊春市	10.554	13.991	21.172	3.400	4.720	3.180
	七台河市	0.753	11.588	20.636	0.320	3.760	3.274
	鹤岗市	11.028	17.120	15.422	3.760	5.520	2.520
	双鸭山市	4.558	28.277	26.824	1.560	8.588	4.380
	均值	5.926	15.634	16.759	2.101	5.094	2.808
东部	枣庄市	5.954	6.964	14.362	2.685	2.504	2.600
	韶关市	7.966	8.394	15.606	2.480	2.360	2.560
	均值	6.960	7.679	14.984	2.583	2.432	2.580
中部	淮北市	5.797	12.624	6.530	2.388	4.739	1.260
	铜陵市	5.734	9.632	4.845	2.520	4.360	1.100
	萍乡市	3.036	11.860	16.571	1.200	4.280	3.060
	景德镇市	1.519	11.168	12.858	0.663	4.000	2.380
	新余市	3.017	9.115	17.281	1.200	3.080	3.120
	焦作市	1.140	10.015	9.767	0.520	3.920	1.920
	濮阳市	1.229	15.269	16.164	0.480	5.760	3.080
	黄石市	10.300	4.931	4.784	3.640	1.744	0.860
	均值	3.972	10.577	11.100	1.576	3.985	2.098
西部	乌海市	6.925	8.727	9.243	2.880	3.280	1.700
	泸州市	12.027	9.634	9.777	4.800	3.520	1.860
	铜川市	6.142	16.999	10.128	2.400	6.040	1.760
	白银市	1.182	18.212	21.840	0.480	6.236	3.472
	石嘴山市	7.843	4.546	12.869	3.160	1.691	2.520
	均值	6.824	11.624	12.771	2.744	4.153	2.262

检验名称	统计量	P值
F检验	12.48	0.000
LM检验	166.35	0.000
豪斯曼检验	30.83	0.001

变量	系数	t值	P值
LAP	2.37	3.31	0.00^***
FI	0.74	8.62	0.00^***
TEC	-0.5	-0.66	0.51
CON	0.56	4.19	0.00^***
INV	-0.50	-4.89	0.00^***
URB	0.65	4.02	0.00^***
截距项	-0.9	-3.14	0.00^***