资源型城市经济转型绩效特征与评价方法——基于东北地区的实证研究

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210811

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

资源型城市经济转型仍然是当前我国城市发展的重大问题。基于资源型城市经济转型核心内涵,采用平衡计分卡和关键绩效指标思想方法,概括出资源型城市经济转型的绩效特征,进而构建包括“资源依赖、经济水平、生态效率、社会福利、创新驱动”五方面关键特征的五维评价法,选择能够准确反映经济转型关键过程和结果的少数关键参数作为评价指标,运用脱钩分析、超效率数据包络分析、回归分析、耦合度模型、熵权法、典型相关分析等计量模型,使绩效评价结果与经济转型真实机制相一致。以东北地区7个典型煤炭城市作为案例,运用五维评价法对这些城市2003年以来的经济转型进行绩效评价。结果发现：从转型效果看,7个城市都初步实现了经济增长驱动力的转换,其中辽源的第二产业发展绩效较好,辽源和阜新的产业演替绩效较好;从转型质量看,生态效率均显著提升,其中辽源、阜新、双鸭山提升了经济相对发展水平,实证检验表明7个城市的经济转型中,改善经济对社会福利的支持力不够;从最终目标实现程度看,7个城市的科技和创新水平都严重不足,经济增长趋缓,都未能实现经济转型最终目标。

关键词: 资源型城市, 经济转型, 绩效评价, 五维评价法, 东北地区

Abstract:

At present, the economic transformation of resource-based cities is still a major issue in urban development in China. Based on the core connotation of the economic transformation of resource-based cities, using the ideas and methods of the balanced scorecard and key performance indicators, this paper summarizes the characteristics of economic transformation performance of resource-based cities, and then establishes a new evolution method called "the five-dimensional evaluation method" consisting of "resource dependence, economic level, ecological efficiency, social welfare, innovation driver", selects a few key parameters that can accurately reflect the key processes and results of economic transformation as the evaluation indexes, uses the measurement models such as decoupling analysis, super-efficiency data envelopment analysis, regression analysis, coupling degree model, entropy weight method and canonical correlation analysis, so as to make the results of performance evaluation consistent with the real mechanism of economic transformation. In this paper, seven typical coal cities in Northeast China are taken as cases, and the five-dimensional evaluation method is used to evaluate the performance of economic transformation in these cities since 2003. The results show that, from the perspective of transformation effect, seven cities have initially achieved the transformation of economic growth driving force, among which Liaoyuan has relatively good performance in the development of the secondary industry, and Liaoyuan and Fuxin have relatively good performance in the industrial succession; from the perspective of transformation quality, seven cities have significantly improved the eco-efficiency, among which Liaoyuan, Fuxin and Shuangyashan have improved the relative level of economic development. Empirical test shows that the economic transformation of seven cities does not have enough effect on improving the economic support for social welfare; from the perspective of the degree of realization of the ultimate goal, the level of science and technology and innovation in the seven cities is seriously insufficient, the economic growth slows down, and the ultimate goal of economic transformation is not achieved.

Key words: resource-based city, economic transformation, performance appraisal, five-dimensional evaluation method, Northeast China

张梦朔, 张平宇, 李鹤. 资源型城市经济转型绩效特征与评价方法——基于东北地区的实证研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(8): 2051-2064.

ZHANG Meng-shuo, ZHANG Ping-yu, LI He. Characteristics and evaluation methods of economic transformation performance of resource-based cities: An empirical study of Northeast China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(8): 2051-2064.

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城市	E₂₀₀₃	2003年脱钩状态	E₂₀₁₇	2017年脱钩状态	DF
抚顺	0.86	弱脱钩	-8.98	强脱钩	0.73
阜新	0.98	弱脱钩	-141.31	强脱钩	0.96
辽源	3.26	扩张性负脱钩	-4.24	强脱钩	0.90
鸡西	2.04	扩张性负脱钩	-0.17	强脱钩	0.76
鹤岗	0.59	弱脱钩	-1.27	强脱钩	0.77
双鸭山	0.91	弱脱钩	-0.41	强脱钩	0.77
七台河	0.99	弱脱钩	-0.60	强脱钩	0.78

城市	就业增加最多的产业/万人	就业增长率最大的产业/%	2017年就业比例最大的产业/%
抚顺	卫生、社会保险和社会福利业（0.44）;房地产业（0.17）	房地产业（72.74）;卫生、社会保险和社会福利业（43.37）	制造业（25.06）;采掘业（12.74）
阜新	金融业（0.52）;卫生、社会保险和社会福利业（0.52）	房地产业（120.22）;金融业（74.70）	公共管理和社会组织业（15.94）;教育业（13.97）
辽源	制造业（2.90）;公共管理和社会组织业（0.33）	制造业（163.76）;房地产业（115.20）	制造业（35.39）;采掘业（13.56）
鸡西	水利、环境和公共设施管理业（0.63）;金融业（0.56）	水利、环境和公共设施管理业（203.23）;金融业（95.54）	农林牧渔业（25.80）;采掘业（16.14）
鹤岗	卫生、社会保险和社会福利业（0.41）;电力煤气及水生产供应业（0.29）	租赁和商业服务业（200.00）;信息传输、计算机服务和软件业（166.40）	农林牧渔业（29.75）;采掘业（19.03）
双鸭山	公共管理和社会组织业（1.59）;房地产业（0.66）	房地产业（550.00）;租赁和商业服务业（215.89）	公共管理和社会组织业（24.11）;采掘业（17.38）
七台河	公共管理和社会组织业（0.30）;卫生、社会保险和社会福利业（0.25）	卫生、社会保险和社会福利业（106.21）;信息传输、计算机服务和软件业（99.83）	采掘业（39.45）;公共管理和社会组织业（13.10）

	经济水平绩效得分（%∆RLED）	生态效率绩效得分（%∆EEOE）	社会福利绩效得分（%∆ESSW）	经济转型综合质量
抚顺	-11.98	336.45	234.61	0.06
阜新	15.37	757.17	288.79	0.41
辽源	77.65	1438.24	303.27	0.72
鸡西	-14.28	539.54	331.72	0.28
鹤岗	-7.94	571.25	349.4	0.33
双鸭山	7.59	114.93	442.03	0.25
七台河	-20.2	517.03	292.1	0.10

	科学事业费占财政支出比例/%	每万人专利申请量/件	2017年R&D内部经费占GDP比例/%
抚顺	0.83	4.54	0.79
阜新	0.43	3.40	0.67
辽源	0.54	1.53	0.14
鸡西	0.65	2.28	0.03
鹤岗	0.63	3.66	0.03
双鸭山	0.41	3.11	0.47
七台河	0.27	2.75	1.18
黑吉辽三省	1.47	7.66	1.30