自然资源学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 1573-1587.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210617

• 粮食安全治理 • 上一篇    下一篇

水土资源匹配视角下中国省域农产品供需平衡分析及其政策启示

张永勋(), 李先德()   

  1. 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2020-08-03 修回日期:2021-01-26 出版日期:2021-06-28 发布日期:2021-08-28
  • 通讯作者: 李先德(1964- )男,湖北监利人,博士,研究员,研究方向为国际农业经济与贸易政策、全球粮食安全。E-mail: gjmy6160@caas.cn
  • 作者简介:张永勋(1983- ),男,河南光山人,博士,助理研究员,研究方向为生态农业与全球粮食安全。E-mail: zhangyongxun@caas.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(71961147001);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(161005202004-1-1)

Analyses of supply-demand balance of agricultural products in China and its policy implication

ZHANG Yong-xun(), LI Xian-de()   

  1. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2020-08-03 Revised:2021-01-26 Online:2021-06-28 Published:2021-08-28

摘要:

粮食安全关系到中国稳定与发展和国际贸易秩序。以省级行政区为基本单位,基于2016—2018年各省份常住人口、农产品消费量、农业数据及相关参数,采用生态足迹和水足迹评价方法,在只考虑食用和再生产消费且不考虑地区耕地质量差异的条件下,核算各省份农产品自给的水土资源需求,评价中国省域水土资源承载力状态。结果显示:(1)中国现有耕地资源总量可满足自身耕地总需求(前者是后者1.81倍),但省际差异大,东部沿海省市耕地不足。(2)农业可用水资源总量亦可满足农业可持续生产需求,但区域严重不平衡,华北平原与宁夏水资源赤字严重,而青藏高原地区、长江以南省份农业可用水资源丰富。(3)水土资源空间不匹配制约了中国农业的粮食生产潜力,不考虑环境净化用水,水土资源匹配状态可满足全国粮食自给需求;但考虑环境净化用水,中国粮食难以实现自给,承载力赤字达33715.50万人。以资源环境可持续为导向,未来中国应从农业生产布局优化、农业结构调整、农业科技、产业与人口转移、农产品进口和农业国际合作等方面着手,解决中国农产品需求问题。

关键词: 粮食安全, 资源承载力, 供需平衡, 农业生产布局, 耕地, 水资源

Abstract:

Food security is crucial to China's stability, development and international trade order. In this study, provincial-level administrative regions were taken as the basic unit to calculate the soil and water resources demand that can ensure the food self-sufficiency of each province continuously and to evaluate the carrying capacity of water and soil resources in each province. This study calculated the agricultural products for eating and reproducing and unavoidable food loss, without considering the difference of farmland quality in different regions of China. The required data referred to the provincial permanent population, food consumption per capita, data on agricultural products per unit area, and arable land and water resources from statistical yearbooks of China from 2017 to 2019; the arable land and water consumption parameters were obtained from relevant literature. Using ecological footprint and water footprint method, this study results are as follows: The total arable land resource in China is 1.81 times as much as the total demand for arable land, which means that the current arable land resource can fully meet the food production demand of Chinese people. However, there are large differences between provinces. The arable land in provinces or municipalities with a developed economy in coastal China is insufficient. The total available water resources for agriculture are 7.15 times as much as the general agricultural water demand and 1.78 times as much as the agricultural water demand to keep environmental sustainability, respectively. Thus, the available water resources for agriculture can fully meet the agricultural products demand of Chinese people. But the water resource of the North China Plain and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, as the important regions producing agricultural products, is deficit; the provinces on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and south of the Yangtze River have more available water resources. The spatial mismatch of water and soil resources restricts the crops production potential. If we do not consider the water demand for environmental pollution purification, the matching state of soil and water resources can meet the need of agricultural products nationwide; however, if we consider that, it is difficult to achieve self-sufficiency in agricultural products. There is a huge food deficit in food demand of 337155 thousand persons. Guided by the theory of sustainable development of resources and environment, China should take the following measures to ensure food security: (1) optimizing the distribution of agricultural production; (2) adjusting agricultural structure; (3) moving industries with highly consumed water and labor-intensity to the regions with rich water resources; (4) promoting technological progress, products import, and international cooperation in agriculture in the future.

Key words: food security, resource carrying capacity, supply-demand balance, trades of agricultural products, distribution of agricultural production, cultivated land, water resources