东南亚地区中国海外耕地投资项目的空间分布及影响因素分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210613

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究中国在东南亚地区的海外耕地投资活动规律,利用文献资料法、空间分析法和灰色关联分析法,从空间分布和影响因素两方面进行分析。结果表明：（1）中国海外耕地投资项目多位于中南半岛,且有沿边分布特点;（2）中国在东南亚海外耕地投资意向项目、合同项目的空间分布相似性较高,而生产项目与前两者存在差异;（3）中国海外耕地投资受地缘经济、地缘文化、资源基础和地缘政治的影响且受影响程度依次减弱,其中年均进出口总值、年均中国对外直接投资存量等指标对中国企业的投资选择具有显著影响。东南亚地区作为当前中国海外耕地投资的重要区域,强化同东南亚国家间的经济、文化交流,对中国企业顺利开展海外耕地投资活动具有重要促进作用。

关键词: 海外耕地投资, 空间分布, 影响因素, 中国, 东南亚

Abstract:

The paper uses the literature data, spatial analysis and grey correlation analysis to examine the spatial distribution and influencing factors of China's overseas farmland investment activities in Southeast Asia. The results show that: (1) China's overseas farmland investment projects are mostly distributed in the Indo-China Peninsula along the border of China. (2) The spatial distribution of China's overseas farmland investment intention projects and contract projects in this region is similar, while that of the production projects is different from the other two types of projects. (3) China's overseas farmland investment is affected by geo-economy, geo-culture, resource conditions, and geo-politics, and the degree of impact decreases in succession. Indicators such as the average annual total import and export value and the average annual stock of China's foreign direct investment have a significant impact on the choices of Chinese investment companies. Southeast Asia is an important area for China's overseas farmland investment, therefore strengthening economic and cultural exchanges with Southeast Asian countries will play an important role in promoting the smooth development of overseas farmland investment activities carried out by Chinese companies.

Key words: overseas farmland investment, spatial distribution, influencing factor, China, Southeast Asia

韩璟, 潘子纯, 卢新海. 东南亚地区中国海外耕地投资项目的空间分布及影响因素分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(6): 1521-1534.

HAN Jing, PAN Zi-chun, LU Xin-hai. Spatial distribution and influencing factors of China's overseas farmland investment projects in Southeast Asia[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(6): 1521-1534.

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子目标	指标	单位	数据时点/年
资源基础	耕地总面积	hm²	2016
	人均耕地面积	hm²	2016
	农用地比例	%	2016
	谷物单产	kg/hm²	2016
	人均淡水资源量	m³	2014
地缘政治	首都距离	km	2018
	建交时长	年	2018
	高层交往总数	次	2013—2018
	声明、宣言和公报总数	次	2013—2018
	政府驻外机构总数	个	2018
	主要双边条约总数	个	2000—2018
地缘经济	年均进出口总值	万美元	2013—2018
	进出口总值年均增长率	%	2013—2018
	年均对外承包工程完成营业额	万美元	2013—2017
	年均中国对外直接投资存量	万美元	2013—2018
	对中投资合作政策数量	个	2017
地缘文化	领事磋商总数	次	2013—2018
	年均接收外国留学生人数	人	2013—2017
	年均入境游客人数	人	2013—2017
	入境游客人数年均增长率	%	2013—2017
	孔子学院数量	个	2019

编号	国家	意向项目		合同项目		生产项目
编号	国家	面积/hm²	数量/个	面积/hm²	数量/个	面积/hm²	数量/个
1	缅甸（MMR）	855251	21	845386	18	21938	7
2	印度尼西亚（IDN）	623057	13	623057	13	5015	1
3	老挝（LAO）	300241	32	300241	32	32951	10
4	柬埔寨（KHM）	276540	29	276540	29	7326	4
5	越南（VNM）	71948	9	71948	9	597	3
6	菲律宾（PHL）	50385	4	50385	4	200	1
7	马来西亚（MYS）	6968	3	6568	2	4096	2

子目标	指标	灰色关联度	灰色关联度（平均）
资源基础	耕地总面积	0.8635^**	0.8641^**
	人均耕地面积	0.9690^***
	农用地比例	0.6919
	谷物单产	0.7932^*
	人均淡水资源量	0.8306^*
地缘政治	首都距离	0.8667^**	0.8169^**
	建交时长	0.7111
	高层交往总数	0.6419
	声明、宣言和公报总数	0.7671^*
	政府驻外机构总数	0.7346
	主要双边条约总数	0.6504
地缘经济	年均进出口总值	0.9882^***	0.9160^**
	进出口总值年均增长率	0.7467^*
	年均对外承包工程完成营业额	0.9410^**
	年均中国对外直接投资存量	0.9879^***
	对中投资合作政策数量	0.5767
地缘文化	领事磋商总数	0.9800^***	0.9067^**
	年均接收外国留学生人数	0.9320^*
	年均入境游客人数	0.8899^**
	入境游客人数年均增长率	0.8075^**
	孔子学院数量	0.9241^**