国际粮食贸易背景下的市场整合与虚拟资源流动——以中国巴基斯坦大米市场为例

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210612

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

贸易自由化和区域经济一体化不仅会通过比较优势整合市场、提升效率,还会带来农产品贸易中虚拟资源的流动。以中国—巴基斯坦大米贸易为研究对象,使用两国大米贸易数据,首先检验中巴粮食市场整合程度,其次分析中巴大米贸易带来的虚拟水和虚拟土地的流动。结果表明：（1）中巴之间大米市场已经高度整合,且价格存在长期均衡,但巴基斯坦大米价格比中国波动大,其对中国大米的价格弹性为1.097;“一带一路”倡议带来了巴方大米价格7.8%的下降,增加了穷人的福利。（2）贸易带来了虚拟水土资源的流动。中国累计从巴基斯坦净进口大米354万t,相当于净进口国内52万hm²、巴基斯坦96.4万hm²耕地,以及国内34.4亿t、巴基斯坦101.7亿t水资源。中国应加大技术支持和扩散的力度,具有促进粮食安全,节约全球资源的意义。

关键词: “一带一路”, 中巴经济走廊, 巴基斯坦, 大米, 市场整合, 虚拟资源

Abstract:

Trade liberalization and regional economic integration will not only lead to market integration and efficiency improvement through comparative advantages, but also produce transaction of "virtual resources", such as "virtual water" and "virtual land". Based on the time series model, and the food trade and prices data covering China and Pakistan, this paper first examines the degree of food market integration of the two countries. Secondly, we calculate the net flow of virtual water and virtual land resources accompanied by the rice trade, and analyze changes in resource efficiency. The results showed that: (1) The rice market between China and Pakistan has been highly integrated, but the price of rice in Pakistan is more fluctuant than that in China, and the price elasticity of rice in Pakistan is 1.097 with respect to that of China. This means that if rice price in China increases by 10%, the one in Pakistan will increase by 10.97%. Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative, rice price in Pakistan has fallen by 7.8%, which increases the welfare of the poor. (2) After 1988, China had net imports of 3.54 million tons of rice from Pakistan in total, equivalent to 520000 hectares of domestic cultivated land, or 964000 hectares of agricultural land in Pakistan, 3.44 billion tons of domestic water or 10.17 billion tons of water in Pakistan. The empirical results indicate a great difference in the utilization efficiency of land and water resources between China and Pakistan. Although the utilization efficiency of nature resources has been converging after the implementation of the B&R Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project, the converging speed is not high enough. China should continue to promote the technology spillover to Pakistan and other B&R Initiative countries, help them overcome difficulties in raising low resources utilization efficiency, and increase the yield of rice to finally achieve the convergence of resource utilization efficiency. In global viewpoint, this not only ensures food security, but also saves natural resources, which is in line with the core goal of B&R Initiative: to make full use of comparative advantages in cooperating countries, to achieve free flow of factors and win-win cooperation, and finally build a community with a shared future, interests and responsibilities for mankind.

Key words: the Belt and Road, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Pakistan, rice, market integration, virtual resources

于晓华, 刘畅, 张国政. 国际粮食贸易背景下的市场整合与虚拟资源流动——以中国巴基斯坦大米市场为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(6): 1505-1520.

YU Xiao-hua, LIU Chang, ZHANG Guo-zheng. Market integration and virtual flow of resources under the background of international food trade: Evidence from China-Pakistan rice market[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(6): 1505-1520.

图/表 10

表1

图1

图2

表2

表3

表4

表5

图3

表6

中国从巴基斯坦净进口大米的引致虚拟水资源"

年份	中国大米净进口量/t	净进口中国水资源量/万m³				净进口巴基斯坦水资源量/万m³
年份	中国大米净进口量/t	绿水	蓝水	灰水	合计	绿水	蓝水	灰水	合计
1988	-750.00	-27.53	-36.53	-8.78	-72.84	-31.58	-177.30	-6.60	-215.48
1989	53017.50	1945.74	2581.95	620.30	5147.99	2232.04	12533.34	466.55	15231.93
1991	6251.25	229.42	304.44	73.14	607.00	263.18	1477.80	55.01	1795.99
1993	-22.50	-0.83	-1.10	-0.26	-2.19	-0.95	-5.32	-0.20	-6.47
1996	15000.00	550.50	730.50	175.50	1456.50	631.50	3546.00	132.00	4309.50
1997	63.75	2.34	3.10	0.75	6.19	2.68	15.07	0.56	18.31
2001	-3.75	-0.14	-0.18	-0.04	-0.36	-0.16	-0.89	-0.03	-1.08
2002	-31.25	-1.15	-1.52	-0.37	-3.04	-1.32	-7.39	-0.28	-8.99
2003	-91.25	-3.35	-4.44	-1.07	-8.86	-3.84	-21.57	-0.80	-26.21
2004	-26.25	-0.96	-1.28	-0.31	-2.55	-1.11	-6.21	-0.23	-7.55
2005	-61.25	-2.25	-2.98	-0.72	-5.95	-2.58	-14.48	-0.54	-17.60
2006	-312.50	-11.47	-15.22	-3.66	-30.35	-13.16	-73.88	-2.75	-89.79
2007	-986.25	-36.20	-48.03	-11.54	-95.77	-41.52	-233.15	-8.68	-283.35
2008	-2106.25	-77.30	-102.57	-24.64	-204.51	-88.67	-497.92	-18.54	-605.13
2009	-3538.75	-129.87	-172.34	-41.40	-343.61	-148.98	-836.56	-31.14	-1016.68
2010	-6613.75	-242.72	-322.09	-77.38	-642.19	-278.44	-1563.49	-58.20	-1900.13
2011	4112.50	150.93	200.28	48.12	399.33	173.14	972.20	36.19	1181.53
2012	715198.75	26247.79	34830.18	8367.83	69445.80	30109.87	169072.98	6293.75	205476.60
2013	514545.00	18883.80	25058.34	6020.18	49962.32	21662.34	121638.44	4528.00	147828.78
2014	499625.00	18336.24	24331.74	5845.61	48513.59	21034.21	118111.35	4396.70	143542.26
2015	547083.75	20077.97	26642.98	6400.88	53121.83	23032.23	129330.60	4814.34	157177.17
2016	868050.00	31857.44	42274.04	10156.19	84287.67	36544.91	205207.02	7638.84	249390.77
2017	331657.50	12171.83	16151.72	3880.39	32203.94	13962.78	78403.83	2918.59	95285.20
累计	3540061.25	129920.23	172400.99	41418.72	343739.94	149036.57	836870.47	31152.54	1017059.58

表6

表7

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中国从巴基斯坦进口的主要产品		中国向巴基斯坦出口的主要产品
项目	价值/千美元	项目	价值/千美元
大米—总量（精米当量）	93642	大蒜	52520
坚果	38722	姜	37707
原材料	10391	速食品	31070
精制糖	3760	原材料	28620
芝麻	3687	苹果	23834
废棉	2940	带壳核桃	22059
		大米—总量（精米当量）	21845
		油	1003
总计	153142	总计	323129

检验方式	ADF检验值
Log(中国大米价格)	1.39
Log(巴基斯坦大米价格)	0.50
Log(中国大米价格) 的一阶差分	-9.52^***
Log(巴基斯坦大米价格) 的一阶差分	-7.23^***

检验方式	Log(巴基斯坦大米价格)
	模型1		模型2
		系数	t值	系数	t值
Log(中国大米价格)	1.097	392.292^***	1.088	615.600^***
“一带一路”虚拟变量	-0.078	-2.811^***
回归残差的ADF检验	-2.060^***		-2.045^**

	年份	进口大米/t	出口大米/t	净进口/t	净进口虚拟土地/hm²
	年份	进口大米/t	出口大米/t	净进口/t	中方土地	巴方土地
中与巴各年进出口情况	1988	0	750.00	-750.00	-141.86	-319.00
	1989	53017.50	0	53017.50	9624.67	23126.50
	1990	0	0	0	0	0
	1991	6251.25	0	6251.25	1108.34	2694.62
	1993	0	22.50	-22.50	-3.85	-8.21
	1996	15000.00	0	15000.00	2414.60	5229.21
	1997	73.75	10.00	63.75	10.09	22.73
	2001	0	3.75	-3.75	-0.61	-1.36
	2002	0	31.25	-31.25	-5.05	-10.35
	2003	0	91.25	-91.25	-15.06	-30.88
	2004	0	26.25	-26.25	-4.16	-8.78
	2005	113.75	175.00	-61.25	-9.78	-19.30
	2006	157.50	470.00	-312.50	-49.76	-98.88
	2007	342.50	1328.75	-986.25	-153.31	-297.28
	2008	577.50	2683.75	-2106.25	-320.95	-598.38
	2009	455.00	3993.75	-3538.75	-537.37	-988.23
	2010	532.50	7146.25	-6613.75	-1009.27	-2162.20
	2011	10835.00	6722.50	4112.50	614.97	1144.30
	2012	724478.75	9280.00	715198.75	105534.79	198854.13
	2013	521275.00	6730.00	514545.00	76599.97	137109.62
	2014	508400.00	8775.00	499625.00	73331.91	137490.02
	2015	553266.25	6182.50	547083.75	79387.60	146907.56
	2016	879707.50	11657.50	868050.00	126432.85	230154.31
	2017	340972.50	9315.00	331657.50	47948.17	86086.67
	累计	3615456.25	75395.00	3540061.25	520756.93	964276.83

水资源规模	1988—1992年	1993—1997年	1998—2002年	2003—2007年	2008—2012年	2013—2017年
中国
长期年平均降水量深度/(mm/年)	645	645	645	645	645	645
长期年平均降水量体积/(10亿m³/年)	6192	6192	6192	6192	6192	6192
人均可再生水资源总量/(m³/人/年)	2307	2206	2139	2077	2020	1971
农业平均用水量/(10亿m³/年)	415	407.7	378.4	360	388	385.2
农业用水量占总用水量百分比/%	83	77.6	68.83	63.01	64.31	64.4
人均年用水总量/(m³/人/年)	406.2	408.1	414	417.9	429	415
巴基斯坦
长期年平均降水量深度/(mm/年)	494	494	494	494	494	494
长期年平均降水量体积/(10亿m³/年)	393.3	393.3	393.3	393.3	393.3	393.3
人均可再生水资源总量/(m³/人/年)	2170	1912	1706	1539	1387	1253
农业平均用水量/(10亿m³/年)	150.6	—	162.7	—	172.4	—
农业用水量占总用水量百分比/%	96.79	—	94.26	—	93.95	—
人均年用水总量/(m³/人/年)	1368	—	1193	—	1031	—