自然资源学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 1481-1493.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210610

• 粮食安全潜力 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于农户经济和环境“双优”目标的粮食主产区化肥施用优化模拟分析——以邯郸地区小麦生产为例

钱宸1,2(), 李凡1, 李先德2(), 郝晶辉3,4   

  1. 1.荷兰瓦赫宁根大学发展经济学组,荷兰 瓦赫宁根 6706KN
    2.中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081
    3.华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉 430070
    4.华中农业大学宏观农业研究院,武汉 430070
  • 收稿日期:2020-09-14 修回日期:2021-03-10 出版日期:2021-06-28 发布日期:2021-08-28
  • 通讯作者: 李先德(1964- ),男,湖北监利人,博士,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事农业经济理论与政策研究。E-mail: gjmy6160@caas.cn
  • 作者简介:钱宸(1992- ),男,北京人,博士研究生,主要从事农业资源可持续利用与农户行为经济决策等方面的研究。E-mail: chen.qian@wur.nl
  • 基金资助:
    中国农业科学院科技创新工程专项(ASTIP-IAED-2021-06);国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项(2016YFE0103100);国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(71961147001);中央农办、农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会委托课题(202018)

Analysis of fertilizer-use optimization under the joint framework of economic rationality and environmental sustainability: Evidence from wheat farmers in Handan, Hebei rovince

QIAN Chen1,2(), LI Fan1, LI Xian-de2(), HAO Jing-hui3,4   

  1. 1. Development Economics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands 6706KN
    2. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    3. College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
    4. Macro Agriculture Research Institute, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
  • Received:2020-09-14 Revised:2021-03-10 Online:2021-06-28 Published:2021-08-28

摘要:

我国目前面临着粮食供求紧平衡和化肥过量施用导致农业面源污染的严峻挑战。利用河北邯郸地区1026户小麦种植农户的调研数据,构建经济理性与环境可持续双目标下的农户化肥施用模型,并进行优化模拟分析,旨在探讨应该如何优化粮食主产区农户的化肥施用行为,以实现经济与环境的“双优”目标。结果表明:农户对化肥的认知和化肥价格是实现“双优”目标的关键因素。现阶段农户过高估计了化肥投入对粮食增产的效果,农户的预期化肥产出弹性显著高于化肥实际产出弹性,化肥使用效率偏低;当前粮食主产区化肥价格是模拟优化分析结果中最优化肥价格的一半左右,较低的化肥施用成本促使农户倾向高化肥投入以实现粮食增产。基于研究结果,提出了矫正农户施肥认知偏差、科学高效施肥和适当提高化肥价格水平、优化化肥使用结构等政策建议。

关键词: 粮食安全, 化肥施用, 优化模拟, 农户经济理性, 环境可持续

Abstract:

China has faced severe challenges from the tight balance of food security and the pollution caused by the excessive use of agricultural fertilizers. How to optimize the fertilizer uses to ensure national food security and agricultural environmental sustainability has become a great concern. The purpose of this paper is to explore ways to optimize the application of chemical fertilizer under the joint framework of economic rationality and environmental sustainability in major grain-producing areas. Using the survey data from 1026 wheat-growing farmers in Handan, Hebei province, we build a quantitative model of small holders' use of chemical fertilizers to analyze the obstacles in achieving economic rationality and environmental sustainability simultaneously. The results show that farmers' expectation of chemical fertilizer's output elasticity in the sampling region is significantly higher than the actual elasticity, indicating that, generally speaking, the farmers overestimated the effect of fertilizer on improving grain production, thus using more fertilizers. Meanwhile, the current price of chemical fertilizer in the study area is about half of the optimal price estimated in the analysis, indicating that the cost of chemical fertilizers is relatively low compared with other agricultural inputs, e.g., labor, thus farmers tend to be more dependent on chemical fertilizers in pursuing higher yield. Hence, taking into account the national food security and agricultural environment sustainability, our results suggest that: (1) It is necessary to correct farmers' cognitive bias towards the (in-)effectiveness of fertilizer use to promote scientific fertilization; (2) Fertilizer market structure and the relative price between synthetic and organic fertilizers should be more differentiated through the supply-side reform, so as to fundamentally mitigate fertilizer 'overuse' in China.

Key words: food security, fertilizer use, simulation optimization, economic rationality, environmental sustainabilit