自然资源学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 1398-1412.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210604

• 粮食安全动态 • 上一篇    下一篇

“一带一路”沿线国家粮食消费时空格局

张超1,2,3(), 杨艳昭1,2,4(), 封志明1,2,4, 贾琨1,2, 郎婷婷1,2   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
    3.北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875
    4.自然资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室,北京 101149
  • 收稿日期:2020-06-08 修回日期:2020-08-28 出版日期:2021-06-28 发布日期:2021-08-28
  • 通讯作者: 杨艳昭(1977- ),女,辽宁朝阳人,博士,研究员,主要从事资源开发与区域发展研究。E-mail: yangyz@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:张超(1991- ),男,河南平顶山人,博士研究生,主要从事资源开发与区域发展研究。E-mail: zhangc.18b@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010201);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0503505)

Spatio-temporal pattern of cereals consumption in countries along the Belt and Road

ZHANG Chao1,2,3(), YANG Yan-zhao1,2,4(), FENG Zhi-ming1,2,4, JIA Kun1,2, LANG Ting-ting1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    4. Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 101149, China
  • Received:2020-06-08 Revised:2020-08-28 Online:2021-06-28 Published:2021-08-28

摘要:

“一带一路”沿线国家是世界重要粮食生产—消费区,开展该区域粮食安全研究具有重要意义。聚焦粮食消费,剖析沿线国家1995—2017年粮食消费时空格局特征,揭示影响因素。结果表明:(1)1995—2017年,粮食消费数量逐渐增长,总量占世界比例介于55%~59%,人均消费量增至367 kg,为世界水平的95%。(2)1995—2017年,其他用粮和工业用粮高速增长,饲料和口粮快速增长,损耗和种子用粮缓慢增长,形成“口粮为主、饲料为辅”的消费结构,处于粮食消费初级阶段。(3)消费总量空间差异大而人均消费差异小,中东欧国家消费水平高,人口大国、岛屿小国、粮食生产条件欠佳国家消费水平较低。(4)各类用途粮食人均消费量空间差异不大,饲料总量空间差异最大且逐渐增大,近半数国家仍以口粮为主,约25%的国家完成了向相对均衡型转变的消费结构升级。(5)人口数量和消费水平累积贡献率约为43%和57%,中亚、东南亚、南亚多数国家受消费、人口共同影响,西亚及中东国家多受人口影响,中东欧内部差异大。口粮、饲料累积贡献量占比约为46%和34%,南亚、东南亚国家多受口粮影响,中蒙俄、中亚国家多受饲料影响,中东欧和中南半岛国家多为综合贡献型。

关键词: 粮食消费, 时序特征, 空间格局, 影响因素, “一带一路”沿线国家

Abstract:

The countries along the Belt and Road are regarded as the world's important food production and consumption areas, so it is of great significance to carry out the regional food security research. The paper aims to focus on cereals consumption, analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the cereals consumption quantity and structure of these areas during 1995-2017, and reveal their influencing factors. The results show that: (1) From 1995 to 2017, the total cereals consumption and per capita volume presented an increasing trend and the total cereals accounted for about 55%-59% of the world's total. The per capita consumption increased to 367 kg in 2017, which was 95% of the world level. (2) From 1995 to 2017, the other use and processing consumption increased dramatically, feed and food increased rapidly, but the losses and seed increased slowly, which showed a "Food-based and Feed-assisted" cereals consumption structure that was at the primary stage of cereals consumption. (3) The spatial difference of the total cereals consumption is obvious and the per capita consumption is small. The cereals consumption level is very high in Central and Eastern European countries, but it is generally low in countries with a large population, small island areas, or poor cereals production conditions. (4) The spatial difference in per capita consumption of various types of cereals is not obvious except for the total amount of feed. Nearly half of the countries are still dominated by food, and about one-quarter of the countries have completed the upgrade of the cereals consumption structure that has shifted to a relatively balanced consumption structure. (5) The cumulative contribution rate of population and consumption level is about 43% and 57%. In Central Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia, most countries are jointly affected by consumption level and population. West Asia and the Middle East are significantly affected by population. The cumulative contribution of population and consumption level have large differences in Central and Eastern Europe. The cumulative contribution of food and feed accounted for about 46% and 34%, respectively. South Asia and Southeast Asia were mostly dominated by foods, China-Mongolia-Russia and Central Asia were mostly dominated by feed, and Central and Eastern Europe and Indochina Peninsula were mostly integrated contributors.

Key words: cereals consumption, time-series characteristics, spatial pattern, influencing factor, countries along the Belt and Road