关键词: 粮食消费, 时序特征, 空间格局, 影响因素, “一带一路”沿线国家

Abstract:

The countries along the Belt and Road are regarded as the world's important food production and consumption areas, so it is of great significance to carry out the regional food security research. The paper aims to focus on cereals consumption, analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the cereals consumption quantity and structure of these areas during 1995-2017, and reveal their influencing factors. The results show that: (1) From 1995 to 2017, the total cereals consumption and per capita volume presented an increasing trend and the total cereals accounted for about 55%-59% of the world's total. The per capita consumption increased to 367 kg in 2017, which was 95% of the world level. (2) From 1995 to 2017, the other use and processing consumption increased dramatically, feed and food increased rapidly, but the losses and seed increased slowly, which showed a "Food-based and Feed-assisted" cereals consumption structure that was at the primary stage of cereals consumption. (3) The spatial difference of the total cereals consumption is obvious and the per capita consumption is small. The cereals consumption level is very high in Central and Eastern European countries, but it is generally low in countries with a large population, small island areas, or poor cereals production conditions. (4) The spatial difference in per capita consumption of various types of cereals is not obvious except for the total amount of feed. Nearly half of the countries are still dominated by food, and about one-quarter of the countries have completed the upgrade of the cereals consumption structure that has shifted to a relatively balanced consumption structure. (5) The cumulative contribution rate of population and consumption level is about 43% and 57%. In Central Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia, most countries are jointly affected by consumption level and population. West Asia and the Middle East are significantly affected by population. The cumulative contribution of population and consumption level have large differences in Central and Eastern Europe. The cumulative contribution of food and feed accounted for about 46% and 34%, respectively. South Asia and Southeast Asia were mostly dominated by foods, China-Mongolia-Russia and Central Asia were mostly dominated by feed, and Central and Eastern Europe and Indochina Peninsula were mostly integrated contributors.

Key words: cereals consumption, time-series characteristics, spatial pattern, influencing factor, countries along the Belt and Road