国内耦合协调度模型的误区及修正

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210319

自然资源学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 793-810.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210319

• 其他研究论文 • 上一篇

国内耦合协调度模型的误区及修正

王淑佳¹^,²(), 孔伟²^,³(), 任亮², 治丹丹², 戴彬婷⁴

1.中山大学旅游学院,广州 510275
2.河北北方学院生态建设与产业发展研究中心,张家口 075000
3.河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津 300401
4.河北北方学院理学院,张家口 075000

收稿日期:2019-07-17 修回日期:2019-12-16 出版日期:2021-03-28 发布日期:2021-05-28
通讯作者: 孔伟 E-mail:wangsjtr@163.com;kongwei0632@163.com
作者简介:王淑佳（1986- ）,女,河北张家口人,博士研究生,讲师,研究方向为旅游规划与旅游社会学、生态建设与产业发展。E-mail: wangsjtr@163.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目(19BSH077);河北省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(20143101);河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(SQ181095)

Research on misuses and modification of coupling coordination degree model in China

WANG Shu-jia¹^,²(), KONG Wei²^,³(), REN Liang², ZHI Dan-dan², DAI Bin-ting⁴

1. School of Tourism Management, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
2. Ecological Construction and Industry Development Research Center, Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou 075000, Hebei, China
3. School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China
4. College of Science, Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou 075000, Hebei, China

Received:2019-07-17 Revised:2019-12-16 Online:2021-03-28 Published:2021-05-28
Contact: KONG Wei E-mail:wangsjtr@163.com;kongwei0632@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着对科学发展观认识的深入,耦合协调度模型成为研究区域整体均衡发展程度的有效评价与研究工具。但在该模型使用中,存在书写错误、丢失系数、错用权重和模型不成立四类误区,已经显著影响到学术研究的科学性。因此首先明确传统耦合协调度模型的规范公式,在探讨该传统模型在社会科学领域研究中效度问题基础上,进一步提出耦合度的修正模型。此外耦合协调度模型还存在指标构建的主观性、耦合结果的波动性和无可比性的信度问题。以京津冀生态与经济系统为例,验证修正后的耦合协调度模型具有较好的效度,研究对象的时空变化会显著影响耦合协调度模型的信度。

关键词: 耦合协调度, 使用误区, 模型效度, 模型信度, 模型修正

Abstract:

With the deepening understanding of the Scientific Outlook on Development, the coupling coordination degree model has become an effective evaluation and research tool for the regional overall balanced development. However, for this model, there are four types of misuses, including writing errors, coefficients loss, weight misuses and model failures, which have significantly affected the scientific nature of academic research. Therefore, this study firstly clarified the normative formula of the traditional coupling coordination degree model. On the basis of discussing the validity of the traditional model in the field of social science research, this study further proposed a modified model of coupling degree. In addition, the coupling coordination degree model has three reliability issues: the subjectivity of index construction, and the volatility and incomparability of coupling results. Taking the ecological and economic system of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example, we proved that the modified coupling coordination degree model has better validity, and the spatial and temporal changes of the research object will affect the reliability of the coupled coordination model.

Key words: coupling coordination degree, misuse, model validity, model reliability, model modification

王淑佳, 孔伟, 任亮, 治丹丹, 戴彬婷. 国内耦合协调度模型的误区及修正[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(3): 793-810.

WANG Shu-jia, KONG Wei, REN Liang, ZHI Dan-dan, DAI Bin-ting. Research on misuses and modification of coupling coordination degree model in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(3): 793-810.

图/表 14

图1

表1

图2

图3

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

表7

表8

原模型与修正后模型计算京津冀13市生态—经济耦合协调度C值"

年份/C值		北京	天津	石家庄	唐山	秦皇岛	邯郸	邢台	保定	张家口	承德	沧州	廊坊	衡水
2008	原	0.9989	0.9935	0.8868	0.9073	0.6821	0.8328	0.6816	0.7789	0.6871	0.6101	0.8017	0.7867	0.7191
2008	新	0.9404	0.8660	0.5440	0.5769	0.3006	0.4780	0.3344	0.4171	0.3278	0.2700	0.4374	0.4196	0.3738
2009	原	0.9984	0.9997	0.8912	0.9079	0.6790	0.8114	0.6839	0.7786	0.7180	0.6377	0.8018	0.7587	0.7396
2009	新	0.9238	0.9675	0.5435	0.5716	0.2946	0.4445	0.3224	0.4117	0.3533	0.2731	0.4352	0.3821	0.3906
2010	原	0.9999	0.9920	0.9071	0.9224	0.6957	0.8309	0.7044	0.7992	0.7556	0.6212	0.8277	0.7707	0.7109
2010	新	0.9835	0.8497	0.5659	0.5942	0.3041	0.4593	0.3385	0.4245	0.3857	0.2533	0.4574	0.3908	0.3529
2011	原	0.9939	0.9848	0.9373	0.9468	0.7446	0.8488	0.7437	0.8114	0.7806	0.6469	0.8601	0.8162	0.7560
2011	新	0.8485	0.7896	0.6271	0.6503	0.3454	0.4767	0.3720	0.4332	0.4123	0.2600	0.4994	0.4361	0.3951
2012	原	0.9992	0.9913	1.0000	0.9276	0.6720	0.8527	0.7674	0.8211	0.7859	0.6561	0.8749	0.8133	0.7577
2012	新	0.9445	0.8342	0.9949	0.5937	0.2497	0.4816	0.3967	0.4433	0.4134	0.2615	0.5164	0.4243	0.3931
2013	原	0.9858	0.9280	0.9867	0.9866	0.7442	0.9215	0.8259	0.8680	0.7819	0.6619	0.9183	0.9025	0.7773
2013	新	0.7757	0.5868	0.8169	0.8135	0.3519	0.6125	0.4721	0.5160	0.4043	0.2746	0.6006	0.5692	0.4184
2014	原	0.9942	0.9488	0.9834	0.9815	0.6713	0.8995	0.8283	0.8917	0.7556	0.6955	0.9270	0.9064	0.8257
2014	新	0.8523	0.6353	0.7939	0.7829	0.2532	0.5627	0.4708	0.5540	0.3797	0.3067	0.6191	0.5750	0.4723
2015	原	0.9854	0.9367	0.9873	0.9836	0.7994	0.9146	0.8719	0.9160	0.7731	0.6982	0.9156	0.9176	0.8183
2015	新	0.7682	0.5963	0.8137	0.7917	0.4115	0.5861	0.5281	0.5961	0.3889	0.3019	0.5833	0.5873	0.4547
2016	原	0.9886	0.9490	0.9781	0.9867	0.7982	0.9274	0.8444	0.9292	0.7908	0.6964	0.9424	0.9175	0.8714
2016	新	0.7870	0.6257	0.7564	0.8085	0.3862	0.6110	0.4765	0.6189	0.4065	0.2861	0.6457	0.5805	0.5280
2017	原	0.9685	0.9876	0.9664	0.9589	0.8336	0.9242	0.8532	0.8893	0.8293	0.7264	0.9375	0.9241	0.8514
2017	新	0.6527	0.8079	0.7122	0.6842	0.4381	0.6124	0.4857	0.5479	0.4504	0.3052	0.6292	0.5920	0.4896

表8

表9

原模型与修正后模型计算京津冀13市生态—经济协调发展度D值"

年份/D值		北京	天津	石家庄	唐山	秦皇岛	邯郸	邢台	保定	张家口	承德	沧州	廊坊	衡水
2008	原	0.5736	0.4999	0.4328	0.4457	0.4415	0.3926	0.3598	0.3867	0.3899	0.3779	0.4013	0.4038	0.3402
2008	新	0.5565	0.4667	0.3390	0.3554	0.2931	0.2974	0.2520	0.2830	0.2693	0.2514	0.2964	0.2949	0.2453
2009	原	0.6145	0.5039	0.4588	0.4676	0.4480	0.4136	0.3964	0.4013	0.3956	0.4195	0.4078	0.4237	0.3474
2009	新	0.5911	0.4957	0.3583	0.3711	0.2951	0.3061	0.2722	0.2918	0.2775	0.2746	0.3004	0.3007	0.2524
2010	原	0.6390	0.5257	0.4806	0.4920	0.4593	0.4402	0.4014	0.4291	0.4063	0.4322	0.4340	0.4335	0.3798
2010	新	0.6337	0.4865	0.3796	0.3949	0.3037	0.3273	0.2783	0.3127	0.2903	0.2759	0.3226	0.3087	0.2676
2011	原	0.6761	0.5681	0.5003	0.5088	0.4734	0.4591	0.4109	0.4443	0.4052	0.4597	0.4415	0.4520	0.3817
2011	新	0.6247	0.5087	0.4092	0.4216	0.3224	0.3441	0.2906	0.3246	0.2945	0.2914	0.3364	0.3304	0.2759
2012	原	0.6727	0.5914	0.5818	0.5309	0.5138	0.4614	0.4096	0.4494	0.4183	0.4713	0.4580	0.4723	0.3923
2012	新	0.6540	0.5425	0.5803	0.4247	0.3132	0.3468	0.2945	0.3302	0.3033	0.2975	0.3519	0.3411	0.2826
2013	原	0.6747	0.5540	0.4727	0.4929	0.4590	0.4196	0.3839	0.4269	0.4304	0.4571	0.4396	0.4413	0.3777
2013	新	0.5985	0.4406	0.4301	0.4476	0.3156	0.3421	0.2902	0.3292	0.3095	0.2944	0.3555	0.3505	0.2771
2014	原	0.6784	0.5791	0.4944	0.4985	0.5074	0.4445	0.3973	0.4274	0.4216	0.4539	0.4399	0.4465	0.3820
2014	新	0.6281	0.4739	0.4442	0.4453	0.3116	0.3515	0.2995	0.3369	0.2989	0.3014	0.3595	0.3556	0.2889
2015	原	0.6983	0.5914	0.5201	0.5149	0.4621	0.4639	0.4067	0.4387	0.4444	0.4682	0.4800	0.4805	0.4083
2015	新	0.6165	0.4718	0.4722	0.4620	0.3315	0.3713	0.3165	0.3539	0.3152	0.3079	0.3831	0.3844	0.3044
2016	原	0.7283	0.6111	0.5472	0.5302	0.5140	0.4725	0.4428	0.4591	0.4498	0.4936	0.4801	0.5010	0.4044
2016	新	0.6498	0.4962	0.4812	0.4800	0.3575	0.3835	0.3327	0.3747	0.3225	0.3163	0.3974	0.3986	0.3148
2017	原	0.7524	0.5727	0.5155	0.5220	0.5022	0.4419	0.4522	0.4342	0.4582	0.5128	0.4945	0.5110	0.4333
2017	新	0.6177	0.5179	0.4426	0.4409	0.3641	0.3597	0.3411	0.3408	0.3377	0.3324	0.4051	0.4090	0.3286

表9

表10

河北省11市变更研究区域后耦合度C值变化情况"

年份/C值		石家庄	唐山	秦皇岛	邯郸	邢台	保定	张家口	承德	沧州	廊坊	衡水
2008	省内	0.9485	0.9566	0.4873	0.8686	0.5998	0.7554	0.5608	0.4393	0.7673	0.7560	0.6480
	三地	0.5440	0.5769	0.3006	0.4780	0.3344	0.4171	0.3278	0.2700	0.4374	0.4196	0.3738
	差值	0.4045	0.3796	0.1868	0.3906	0.2654	0.3384	0.2331	0.1693	0.3300	0.3364	0.2742
2009	省内	0.9139	0.9669	0.4567	0.7358	0.5463	0.7053	0.5507	0.4120	0.7162	0.6428	0.6449
	三地	0.5435	0.5716	0.2946	0.4445	0.3224	0.4117	0.3533	0.2731	0.4352	0.3821	0.3906
	差值	0.3705	0.3953	0.1621	0.2913	0.2238	0.2936	0.1974	0.1389	0.2810	0.2607	0.2543
2010	省内	0.9642	0.9793	0.4850	0.8040	0.5742	0.7400	0.6128	0.3918	0.7676	0.6764	0.5916
	三地	0.5659	0.5942	0.3041	0.4593	0.3385	0.4245	0.3857	0.2533	0.4574	0.3908	0.3529
	差值	0.3983	0.3851	0.1808	0.3446	0.2356	0.3155	0.2271	0.1386	0.3102	0.2856	0.2388
2011	省内	0.9002	0.8767	0.5692	0.8429	0.6356	0.7691	0.6694	0.4091	0.8497	0.7704	0.6755
	三地	0.6271	0.6503	0.3454	0.4767	0.3720	0.4332	0.4123	0.2600	0.4994	0.4361	0.3951
	差值	0.2731	0.2265	0.2238	0.3661	0.2636	0.3359	0.2571	0.1491	0.3503	0.3343	0.2804
2012	省内	0.6351	0.9778	0.3989	0.8298	0.6483	0.7577	0.6361	0.3867	0.8536	0.7128	0.6369
	三地	0.9949	0.5937	0.2497	0.4816	0.3967	0.4433	0.4134	0.2615	0.5164	0.4243	0.3931
	差值	-0.3598	0.3841	0.1492	0.3482	0.2516	0.3144	0.2227	0.1252	0.3372	0.2885	0.2438
2013	省内	0.7377	0.7235	0.5428	0.9902	0.7543	0.8706	0.6175	0.4034	0.9900	0.9473	0.6662
	三地	0.8169	0.8135	0.3519	0.6125	0.4721	0.5160	0.4043	0.2746	0.6006	0.5692	0.4184
	差值	-0.0792	-0.0900	0.1910	0.3778	0.2822	0.3546	0.2132	0.1288	0.3894	0.3781	0.2478
2014	省内	0.7443	0.7472	0.4176	0.9291	0.7526	0.9470	0.5783	0.4489	0.9733	0.9542	0.7438
	三地	0.7939	0.7829	0.2532	0.5627	0.4708	0.5540	0.3797	0.3067	0.6191	0.5750	0.4723
	差值	-0.0496	-0.0356	0.1644	0.3664	0.2818	0.3930	0.1986	0.1422	0.3542	0.3792	0.2715
2015	省内	0.7449	0.7616	0.5935	0.9293	0.7963	0.9481	0.5609	0.4181	0.9266	0.9423	0.6807
	三地	0.8137	0.7917	0.4115	0.5861	0.5281	0.5961	0.3889	0.3019	0.5833	0.5873	0.4547
	差值	-0.0688	-0.0301	0.1819	0.3433	0.2683	0.3520	0.1720	0.1162	0.3434	0.3550	0.2260
2016	省内	0.7889	0.7356	0.5808	0.9825	0.7370	0.9978	0.6017	0.4165	0.9621	0.9500	0.8007
	三地	0.7564	0.8085	0.3862	0.6110	0.4765	0.6189	0.4065	0.2861	0.6457	0.5805	0.5280
	差值	0.0325	-0.0729	0.1945	0.3715	0.2604	0.3789	0.1951	0.1304	0.3164	0.3694	0.2726
2017	省内	0.8342	0.8473	0.6685	0.9765	0.7463	0.8917	0.6729	0.4589	0.9825	0.9866	0.7713
	三地	0.7122	0.6842	0.4381	0.6124	0.4857	0.5479	0.4504	0.3052	0.6292	0.5920	0.4896
	差值	0.1219	0.1631	0.2304	0.3641	0.2607	0.3438	0.2225	0.1537	0.3533	0.3946	0.2817

表10

表11

河北省11市变更研究区域后协调发展度D值变化情况"

年份/D值		石家庄	唐山	秦皇岛	邯郸	邢台	保定	张家口	承德	沧州	廊坊	衡水
2008	省内	0.5185	0.5378	0.4059	0.4421	0.3640	0.4125	0.3811	0.3570	0.4341	0.4354	0.3514
2008	三地	0.3390	0.3554	0.2931	0.2974	0.2520	0.2830	0.2693	0.2514	0.2964	0.2949	0.2453
2009	省内	0.5306	0.5553	0.3958	0.4186	0.3749	0.4077	0.3710	0.3693	0.4172	0.4152	0.3473
2009	三地	0.3583	0.3711	0.2951	0.3061	0.2722	0.2918	0.2775	0.2746	0.3004	0.3007	0.2524
2010	省内	0.5720	0.5911	0.4151	0.4718	0.3862	0.4462	0.3972	0.3739	0.4582	0.4379	0.3709
2010	三地	0.3796	0.3949	0.3037	0.3273	0.2783	0.3127	0.2903	0.2759	0.3226	0.3087	0.2676
2011	省内	0.5814	0.5849	0.4568	0.5053	0.4106	0.4731	0.4135	0.4002	0.4895	0.4837	0.3918
2011	三地	0.4092	0.4216	0.3224	0.3441	0.2906	0.3246	0.2945	0.2914	0.3364	0.3304	0.2759
2012	省内	0.5397	0.6380	0.4224	0.5015	0.4041	0.4724	0.4093	0.3917	0.5018	0.4791	0.3865
2012	三地	0.5803	0.4247	0.3132	0.3468	0.2945	0.3302	0.3033	0.2975	0.3519	0.3411	0.2826
2013	省内	0.4963	0.5143	0.4275	0.4923	0.3993	0.4723	0.4163	0.3866	0.5149	0.5041	0.3748
2013	三地	0.4301	0.4476	0.3156	0.3421	0.2902	0.3292	0.3095	0.2944	0.3555	0.3505	0.2771
2014	省内	0.5229	0.5305	0.4220	0.5078	0.4114	0.4932	0.3996	0.3984	0.5139	0.5107	0.3929
2014	三地	0.4442	0.4453	0.3116	0.3515	0.2995	0.3369	0.2989	0.3014	0.3595	0.3556	0.2889
2015	省内	0.5471	0.5468	0.4385	0.5208	0.4221	0.5010	0.4066	0.3919	0.5414	0.5411	0.3988
2015	三地	0.4722	0.4620	0.3315	0.3713	0.3165	0.3539	0.3152	0.3079	0.3831	0.3844	0.3044
2016	省内	0.5923	0.5595	0.4851	0.5526	0.4531	0.5435	0.4288	0.4141	0.5555	0.5744	0.4307
2016	三地	0.4812	0.4800	0.3575	0.3835	0.3327	0.3747	0.3225	0.3163	0.3974	0.3986	0.3148
2017	省内	0.5794	0.5926	0.5107	0.5189	0.4615	0.4923	0.4631	0.4468	0.5794	0.6087	0.4549
2017	三地	0.4426	0.4409	0.3641	0.3597	0.3411	0.3408	0.3377	0.3324	0.4051	0.4090	0.3286

表11

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区间	[0, 0.1)	[0.1, 0.2)	[0.2, 0.3)	[0.3, 0.4)	[0.4, 0.5)	[0.5, 0.6)	[0.6, 0.7)	[0.7, 0.8)	[0.8, 0.9)	[0.9, 1]
C耦合协调度	极度失调	严重失调	中度失调	轻度失调	濒临失调	勉强协调	初级协调	中级协调	良好协调	优质协调
D协调发展度	极度失调衰退类	严重失调衰退类	中度失调衰退类	轻度失调衰退类	濒临失调衰退类	勉强协调发展类	初级协调发展类	中级协调发展类	良好协调发展类	优质协调发展类
颜色
大类	失调衰退类				过渡发展类		协调发展类

研究区域	研究对象	C值个数 /个	C值分布	说明
全国^[53]	建筑业/区域经济增长	31	[0.9139, 1.000]	4个省C值为1
全国^[54]	区域开发强度/资源环境	15	[0.9903, 1.000]	2个年份C值为1
全国^[55]	城乡经济/基本公共服务	58	[0.9607, 1.000]	6个年份/省份C值为1
江苏省^[56]	经济/文化	11	[0.93, 1.00]	7个年份C值为1
陕西省^[57]	农业生态环境/经济发展	10	[0.782, 0.999]	6个年份C值>0.95
南疆铁路沿线^[58]	经济/社会/资源/环境	14	[0.7155, 0.9976]	7个年份C值>0.9
桂西地区^[11]	地质遗迹/民族文化资源	24	[0.84, 1.00]	2个年份C值为1,20个年份C值>0.9
兰州市^[59]	环境/经济	10	[0.9009, 0.9997]	10个年份C值全>0.9
南京市^[60]	土地利用	13	[0.86, 1.00]	其中4个区域C值为1

二元系统		三元系统
比值（大/小）	分界点 C值	比值（大/小）	比值（中/小）	分界点 C值
1	1.0000	1	1	1.0000
2	0.9428	2	2	0.9524
3	0.8660	2	1	0.9449
4	0.8000	3	2	0.9086
5	0.7454	3	3	0.8915
6	0.6999	3	1	0.8654
7	0.6614	4	3	0.8585
8	0.6285	4	2	0.8571
9	0.6000	4	4	0.8399
10	0.5750	4	1	0.7937

子系统	要素层	指标层	属性	子系统	要素层	指标层	属性
生态环境系统	生态环境要素	森林覆盖率	+	经济发展系统	经济规模	GDP	+
		人均水资源量	+			固定资产投资额	+
		全年优良天数	+			工业总产值	+
	生态环境压力	人均供水量	-			社会消费品零售总额	+
		人均工业废水排放量	-		经济潜力	GDP增长率	+
		人均工业二氧化硫排放量	-			第三产业占GDP比例	+
		人均工业烟（粉）尘排放量	-			固定资产投资增长率	+
	生态环境保护	环境质量指数	+			社会消费品零售总额增长率	+
		人均公园绿地面积	+		经济质量	人均GDP	+
		建成区绿化覆盖率	+			人均可支配收入	+
						人均储蓄存款年底余额	+
						失业率	-

国内耦合协调度模型的误区及修正

Research on misuses and modification of coupling coordination degree model in China

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U₁	U₂	C	U₁	U₂	C	U₁	U₂	C	U₁	U₂	C	U₁	U₂	C
0.0	0.1	0.000	0.4	0.4	1.000	0.6	0.6	1.000	0.4	0.8	0.548	0.8	0.9	0.894
0.1	0.1	1.000	0.0	0.5	0.000	0.0	0.7	0.000	0.5	0.8	0.661	0.9	0.9	1.000
0.0	0.2	0.000	0.1	0.5	0.346	0.1	0.7	0.239	0.6	0.8	0.775	0.0	1.0	0.000
0.1	0.2	0.671	0.2	0.5	0.529	0.2	0.7	0.378	0.7	0.8	0.887	0.1	1.0	0.100
0.2	0.2	1.000	0.3	0.5	0.693	0.3	0.7	0.507	0.8	0.8	1.000	0.2	1.0	0.200
0.0	0.3	0.000	0.4	0.5	0.849	0.4	0.7	0.632	0.0	0.9	0.000	0.3	1.0	0.300
0.1	0.3	0.516	0.5	0.5	1.000	0.5	0.7	0.756	0.1	0.9	0.149	0.4	1.0	0.400
0.2	0.3	0.775	0.0	0.6	0.000	0.6	0.7	0.878	0.2	0.9	0.258	0.5	1.0	0.500
0.3	0.3	1.000	0.1	0.6	0.289	0.7	0.7	1.000	0.3	0.9	0.365	0.6	1.0	0.600
0.0	0.4	0.000	0.2	0.6	0.447	0.0	0.8	0.000	0.4	0.9	0.471	0.7	1.0	0.700
0.1	0.4	0.418	0.3	0.6	0.592	0.1	0.8	0.194	0.5	0.9	0.577	0.8	1.0	0.800
0.2	0.4	0.632	0.4	0.6	0.730	0.2	0.8	0.316	0.6	0.9	0.683	0.9	1.0	0.900
0.3	0.4	0.822	0.5	0.6	0.866	0.3	0.8	0.433	0.7	0.9	0.789	1.0	1.0	1.000

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