自然资源学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 783-792.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210318
李艳红(), 张立娟, 朱文博, 张静静, 徐帅博, 朱连奇(
)
收稿日期:
2019-07-12
修回日期:
2019-12-05
出版日期:
2021-03-28
发布日期:
2021-05-28
通讯作者:
朱连奇
E-mail:lyh6299@126.com;lqzhu@henu.edu.cn
作者简介:
李艳红(1994- ),女,河南信阳人,硕士,主要从事气候变化和山地资源研究。E-mail: 基金资助:
LI Yan-hong(), ZHANG Li-juan, ZHU Wen-bo, ZHANG Jing-jing, XU Shuai-bo, ZHU Lian-qi(
)
Received:
2019-07-12
Revised:
2019-12-05
Online:
2021-03-28
Published:
2021-05-28
Contact:
ZHU Lian-qi
E-mail:lyh6299@126.com;lqzhu@henu.edu.cn
摘要:
气候是影响植物栖息地的重要因素之一,预测气候变化对植物潜在分布范围变动的影响,对促进植物资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。基于最大熵Maxent模型结合11个环境变量,预测2050s三种气候情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)南方红豆杉(Taxus chinensis var. mairei)在中国的潜在地理分布状况,分析影响其分布的主要因素,探讨其分布格局的改变对我国亚热带北界的指示意义。结果表明:(1)南方红豆杉的适宜栖息地(生境指数P >0.2)主要分布在我国亚热带暖温带季风区,绝大部分核心栖息地(生境指数P >0.6)分布在秦岭大巴山以南地区;(2)Jackknife测试结果显示,最冷季降水量(bio19)、气温平均日较差(bio2)、气温年变化范围(bio7)、最暖季平均温度(bio10)和海拔(Elev)对南方红豆杉空间分布适宜性影响最大; (3)随气候变化,2050s南方红豆杉有沿纬度向北和海拔向上迁移的趋势,并且我国亚热带北界受气候变化的影响将逐渐向北移动。
李艳红, 张立娟, 朱文博, 张静静, 徐帅博, 朱连奇. 全球变化背景下南方红豆杉地域分布变化[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(3): 783-792.
LI Yan-hong, ZHANG Li-juan, ZHU Wen-bo, ZHANG Jing-jing, XU Shuai-bo, ZHU Lian-qi. Changes of Taxus chinensis var. mairei habitat distribution under global climate change[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(3): 783-792.
表1
南方红豆杉环境变量表"
环境变量 | 描述 | 贡献率/% | 最适范围 |
---|---|---|---|
bio2 | 气温平均日较差 | 21.2 | 0~11 ℃ |
bio3 | 等温性 | 3.2 | >25% |
bio6 | 最冷月最低温度 | 1.3 | <5 ℃ |
bio7 | 气温年变化范围 | 8.1 | 1~16 ℃ |
bio10 | 最暖季平均温度 | 5.5 | 3~22 ℃ |
bio13 | 最湿月降水量 | 1.1 | >155 mm |
bio15 | 降水季节性变化 | 0.2 | 20%~70% |
bio19 | 最冷季降水量 | 52.8 | >25 mm |
T_BS | 表层土壤基本饱和度 | 2.7 | 4%~60% |
AWC_CLASS | 土壤有效含水量 | 0.6 | 7.5%~15% |
Elev | 海拔 | 3.3 | >0 m |
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