中国资源型城市转型对劳动力需求的影响

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210306

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

资源部门的自强机制导致城市人力资本集中于资源型产业,进而造成资源型城市中低技能劳动者增多,使新兴产业对当地劳动力需求下降。因此,资源型城市转型可能会导致城市面临失业问题。使用倾向得分匹配与双重差分结合的方法,探讨了《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划（2013—2020年）》对资源型城市劳动力需求的影响。为验证该影响的内在机制,分别根据教育水平和制造业占比对城市进行三重差分回归。结果显示：城市转型导致资源型城市劳动力需求下降6.9%;成熟型和衰退型城市的转型是导致需求下降的主要原因;检验发现,教育水平更高或制造业占比更高的城市受转型政策的影响更小,从而可以从侧面证明资源部门的自强机制使新兴产业对当地劳动力需求下降。

关键词: 资源型城市转型, 劳动力需求, 产业结构, 倾向得分匹配, 双重差分

Abstract:

Resource industries can lead to over concentration of human capital within resource cities. Emerging industries thus can only find low-skilled employees when entering the city, which may cause labor demand reduction. This study examines whether transformation of resource-based cities affects labor demand. We investigate the impacts of National Plan for Sustainable Development of Resource-based Cities (2013-2020) in China. The impacts of this plan are estimated by combining propensity score matching with the difference-in-differences approach. We also use DDD method based on the cities' education level and rate of manufacture industry to find out the mechanism of the effects. We found that the labor demand of resource-based cities decreased by 6.9% due to urban transformation. Our estimation results also reveal that mature cities and declining cities have the main impacts on labor demand reduction. And the results show that cities with high education level and high rate of manufacture industry are less affected, which proves that the self-improvement mechanism of the resource sectors reduces the local labor demand.

Key words: transformation of resource-based cities, labor demand, industrial structure, propensity score matching, difference-in-differences

段存儒, 曾贤刚. 中国资源型城市转型对劳动力需求的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(3): 606-617.

DUAN Cun-ru, ZENG Xian-gang. The effect of transformation of resource-based cities on labor demand in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(3): 606-617.

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变量	单位	对照组			实验组			全体
变量	单位	样本量/个	均值	方差	样本量/个	均值	方差	样本量/个	均值	方差
处理变量
城市转型	虚拟变量	1730	0.00	0.00	1130	1.00	0.00	2860	0.40	0.49
控制变量
户籍人口数量	万人	1729	496.90	342.20	1130	354.50	239.40	2859	440.60	313.50
居住用地面积	km²	1677	47.40	59.26	1119	26.03	44.16	2796	38.84	54.73
GDP	亿元	1724	1728.94	2413.08	1129	754.05	671.11	2853	1343.15	1980.75
GDP增长率	%	1722	10.85	4.31	1128	10.24	4.87	2850	10.61	4.55
建成区绿化覆盖率	%	1687	39.97	17.60	1120	37.83	8.90	2807	39.12	14.79

变量	匹配前后	均值		标准化偏差	标准化偏差缩小/%	t检验
变量	匹配前后	实验组	对照组	标准化偏差	标准化偏差缩小/%	t值	P值
人口数量	前	351.75	501.95	-49.90	95.80	-3.88	0.00
	后	363.52	369.88	-2.10	95.80	-0.19	0.85
居住用地面积	前	24.79	48.65	-55.90	75.40	-4.19	0.00
	后	24.64	18.77	13.80	75.40	2.89	0.00
GDP	前	813.99	1760.80	-56.50	87.70	-4.25	0.00
	后	836.70	720.54	6.90	87.70	1.45	0.15
GDP增长率	前	11.99	11.58	17.80	69.70	1.44	0.15
	后	12.07	11.95	5.40	69.70	0.41	0.68
建成区绿化覆盖率	前	38.99	39.46	-4.30	59.10	-0.34	0.73
建成区绿化覆盖率	后	38.81	39.00	-1.80	59.10	-0.17	0.87

变量	FE
变量	lnL	TS	TL
resource	—	—	—
T	9.549^***	-0.049^*	0.008
	(0.029)	(0.027)	(0.018)
resource×2008	0.013	-0.102	-0.021
	(0.013)	(0.086)	(0.027)
resource×2009	—	-0.082	-0.030
		(0.083)	(0.029)
resource×2010	-0.019^**	-0.078	-0.032
	(0.007)	(0.083)	(0.025)
resource×2011	-0.014	-0.073	-0.036
	(0.018)	(0.084)	(0.025)
resource×2012	-0.030	-0.071	-0.030
	(0.022)	(0.083)	(0.023)
resource×2013	-0.036	-0.076	-0.010
	(0.028)	(0.080)	(0.023)
resource×2014	-0.084^***	-0.038	-0.016
	(0.027)	(0.078)	(0.022)
resource×2015	-0.079^***	-0.012	-0.018
	(0.030)	(0.074)	(0.023)
resource×2016	-0.090^***	0.008	-0.770^***
	(0.030)	(0.073)	(0.121)
resource×2017	-0.082^*	—	—
	(0.042)
控制变量	是	是	是
个体固定效应	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是
样本量/个	2113	2156	2137
R²	0.998	0.389	0.984

变量	FE
变量	TL	TS
resource×T	-0.173^***	0.070^**
	(0.034)	(0.033)
T	0.096^***	-0.052^**
	(0.027)	(0.025)
resource	—	—
GDP增长率	0.001	-0.011^***
	(0.002)	(0.003)
人口数量	0.298^**	-0.142
	(0.138)	(0.109)
常数项	-1.476^*	1.708^***
	(0.800)	(0.642)
个体固定效应	是	是
时间趋势项	是	是
样本量/个	2137	2156
城市个数/个	215	216
R²	0.981	0.389

变量	lnL lnL lnL lnL
变量	OLS	FE	FE	FE
resource×T	-0.104	-0.361^**	-0.060^**	-0.069^***
resource×T	(0.203)	(0.153)	(0.024)	(0.025)
T	2.179^***	2.760^***	9.520^***	9.538^***
T	(0.163)	(0.135)	(0.026)	(0.027)
resource	0.021	—	0.041	—
resource	(0.130)		(0.043)
人口数量	1.448^***	8.930^***	0.534^***	0.593^***
人口数量	(0.098)	(1.624)	(0.044)	(0.192)
居住用地面积	1.426^***	1.298^***	0.070^***	0.026^*
居住用地面积	(0.090)	(0.264)	(0.017)	(0.014)
GDP	-1.879^***	-5.627^***	0.232^***	0.098^***
GDP	(0.097)	(0.158)	(0.028)	(0.032)
GDP增长率	-0.049^***	-0.093^***	0.004^***	0.006^***
GDP增长率	(0.0153)	(0.018)	(0.001)	(0.001)
建成区绿化覆盖率	0.053^***	0.037^***	0.000	-0.001
建成区绿化覆盖率	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.001)	(0.001)
常数项	1.296^**	-16.950^*	-1.606^***	-0.982
常数项	(0.586)	(9.219)	(0.251)	(1.133)
个体固定效应	否	是	否	是
时间固定效应	否	否	是	是
样本量/个	2113	2113	2113	2113
城市个数/个	216	216	216	216
R²	0.459	0.620	0.998	0.998