哈萨克斯坦粮食生产效率动态演进及区域差异

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210305

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

曾为苏联粮仓的哈萨克斯坦是粮食生产大国,对于粮食生产效率问题的研究可以评价其未来粮食生产潜力和粮食生产水平,为推进中哈粮食合作提供参考。基于2005—2017年哈萨克斯坦州际数据,采用三阶段DEA-Windows方法,在控制环境因素基础上测算了该国的粮食生产效率,分析了其动态演变和区域差异。结果发现：剔除外生环境因素后,除北部地区,哈萨克斯坦其他地区粮食生产效率大幅度下降,全国效率均值从0.755下降到0.286;哈萨克斯坦粮食生产效率地区分异显著,北部为0.857,西部仅有0.112,粮食生产效率提升空间很大;调整后全国和各地区的粮食生产效率都呈上升趋势,但与北部的效率差距不断增大,地区内各州粮食效率变化趋于一致。

关键词: 粮食生产效率, 区域差异, 哈萨克斯坦, 三阶段DEA, DEA-Windows

Abstract:

Kazakhstan, which was the granary of the Soviet Union, is a large grain producing country. Research on grain production efficiency can evaluate its grain production potential and grain production level of future, and provide a reference for promoting Sino-Kazakh food cooperation. Based on the inter-state data of Kazakhstan from 2005 to 2017, this paper applied the Three-Stage DEA-Windows method to calculate the country's grain production efficiency in controlling environmental factors, and analyzed its dynamic evolution and regional differences. The results show that after excluding the environmental factors, the grain production efficiency fell sharply except for the northern region, and the average national efficiency dropped from 0.755 to 0.286. The differences in regional grain production efficiency are significant, with 0.857 in the northern part and only 0.112 in the western part, which means that there was much room for the increase of the grain production efficiency. After the adjustment, the grain production efficiency of the whole country and all regions showed an upward trend, but the efficiency gap between the North and other regions was continuing to increase. The changes of grain efficiency of different states in the same region tended to be similar.

Key words: grain production efficiency, regional differences, Kazakhstan, Three-Stage DEA, DEA-Windows

王美知, 魏凤. 哈萨克斯坦粮食生产效率动态演进及区域差异[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(3): 594-605.

WANG Mei-zhi, WEI Feng. Dynamic evolution and regional differences of grain production efficiency in Kazakhstan[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(3): 594-605.

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州/年份	2005	2009	2013	2017	所属地理区	所属生产区
科斯塔奈	353.72	491.3	426.74	485.78	北部	农作物种植区
北哈	349.34	562.08	454.4	503.76	北部	农作物种植区
阿克莫拉	296.74	506.82	441.23	482.25	北部	农作物种植区
阿拉木图	98.03	119.05	110.41	128.84	东部	混合区
江布尔	65.51	55.33	48	67.25	南部	混合区
东哈	56.14	88.53	79.02	65.71	东部	牲畜饲养区
图尔克斯坦	40.06	40.8	47.14	53.5	南部	混合区
巴甫洛达尔	28.66	82.67	69.67	66.15	东部	混合区
卡拉干达	26.98	55.31	75.89	75.5	中部	牲畜饲养区
克孜勒奥尔达	25.92	27.05	29.5	44.75	南部	农作物种植区
阿克托别	22.07	39.47	21.26	47.99	中部	牲畜饲养区
西哈	14.96	14.64	19.84	36.86	西部	牲畜饲养区

变量类型	变量代码及名称	变量单位	数据来源
产出变量	Y₁粮食总产量	千t	《农林牧副渔》分册
投入变量	X₁农业化肥投入量	千t	《农林牧副渔》分册
	X₂粮食种植面积	千hm²	《农林牧副渔》分册
	X₃耕地灌溉面积	千hm²	《资源环境》分册
	X₄农业固定资产投资	百万坚戈	《固定资产投资》分册
	X₅农业劳动力投入	人	《人口的经济活动》分册
环境变量	Z₁干旱胁迫指数	—	FAO全球粮食和农业信息及预警系统
	Z₂人均GDP	千坚戈/人	《区域》分册
	Z₃农业GDP占比	—	《区域》分册
	Z₄城镇化率	—	《区域》分册

地区	效率值	地区	效率值	地区	效率值
克孜勒奥尔达	0.991	西哈	0.765	北部	0.881
北哈	0.933	图尔克斯坦	0.691	南部	0.845
阿拉木图	0.899	东哈	0.642	西部	0.765
科斯塔奈	0.879	阿克托别	0.618	东部	0.689
江布尔	0.852	卡拉干达	0.577	中部	0.597
阿克莫拉	0.830	巴甫洛达尔	0.526	全国	0.755

	化肥施用松弛量	粮食播种面积松弛量	有效灌溉面积松弛量	农业固定资产投资松弛量	农业从业人数松弛量
常数项	-2.786	-82.374	-18.507	-536.820	18963.071
常数项	-0.668	-0.981	-0.910	-135.465^***	299.247^***
干旱胁迫指数	0.114	4.691	0.795	11.524	641.466
干旱胁迫指数	1.981^**	3.737^***	2.942^***	0.230	2.276^**
人均GDP	0.004	-0.076	-0.005	0.376	-23.515
人均GDP	2.306^**	-2.127^**	-0.555	0.441	-4.998^***
城镇化率	-9.558	298.562	-2.220	-1226.475	39746.267
城镇化率	-1.310	1.908^*	-0.063	-431.990^***	995.983^***
农业GDP占比	0.126	-233.810	-8.563	3332.129	-90661.759
农业GDP占比	0.014	-1.126	-0.183	894.043^***	-16337.248^***
σ²	231.673	103790.790	8554.419	159948430	9552581300
σ²	4.598^***	87295.547^***	1464.572^***	159948420^***	9552581300^***
γ	0.317	0.284	0.600	0.174	0.529
γ	2.138^**	3.636^***	12.923^***	2.852^***	9.729^***
对数似然函数值	-622.985	-1102.823	-867.191	-1688.946	-1964.437

类别	地区	年份
类别	地区	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
北部	阿克莫拉	0.650	0.780	0.908	0.758	0.89	0.402	0.874	0.471	0.862	0.994	0.986	0.990	1.000
	科斯塔奈	0.708	0.869	1.000	1.00	0.882	0.502	1.000	0.453	0.849	0.926	1.000	0.951	0.995
	北哈	0.730	1.000	0.986	1.000	0.921	0.587	1.000	0.720	0.839	0.940	1.000	1.000	1.000
南部	江布尔	0.293	0.198	0.197	0.078	0.238	0.144	0.136	0.093	0.214	0.141	0.218	0.302	0.303
	克孜勒奥尔达	0.129	0.127	0.131	0.112	0.125	0.136	0.110	0.126	0.142	0.170	0.185	0.202	0.220
	图尔克斯坦	0.189	0.170	0.161	0.099	0.181	0.145	0.127	0.123	0.212	0.213	0.281	0.306	0.259
东部	阿拉木图	0.401	0.397	0.435	0.290	0.460	0.369	0.346	0.375	0.454	0.467	0.498	0.545	0.552
	巴甫洛达尔	0.240	0.230	0.302	0.098	0.331	0.175	0.180	0.215	0.313	0.319	0.284	0.334	0.286
	东哈	0.134	0.169	0.211	0.091	0.303	0.081	0.131	0.070	0.272	0.172	0.246	0.288	0.279
中部	阿克托别	0.104	0.063	0.188	0.242	0.137	0.021	0.126	0.033	0.085	0.064	0.081	0.187	0.214
中部	卡拉干达	0.127	0.180	0.233	0.164	0.219	0.098	0.224	0.144	0.283	0.243	0.229	0.333	0.276
西部	西哈	0.061	0.116	0.182	0.302	0.061	0.026	0.110	0.048	0.084	0.105	0.044	0.144	0.167
平均值	北部	0.696	0.883	0.965	0.919	0.898	0.497	0.958	0.548	0.85	0.953	0.995	0.980	0.998
	南部	0.204	0.165	0.163	0.096	0.181	0.142	0.125	0.114	0.189	0.175	0.228	0.270	0.261
	东部	0.258	0.266	0.316	0.159	0.365	0.208	0.219	0.220	0.346	0.320	0.343	0.389	0.372
	中部	0.116	0.122	0.211	0.203	0.178	0.059	0.175	0.089	0.184	0.153	0.155	0.260	0.245
	西部	0.061	0.116	0.182	0.302	0.061	0.026	0.110	0.048	0.084	0.105	0.044	0.144	0.167
	全国	0.233	0.278	0.336	0.330	0.291	0.160	0.283	0.178	0.290	0.302	0.302	0.365	0.368