中亚地区粮食生产潜力及发展潜力分析——基于GAEZ方法

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210304

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中亚地区因特殊的地理位置和高粮食生产能力,对维护世界粮食安全意义重大,发掘中亚地区粮食生产潜力有助于全球粮食危机缓解。采用GAEZ方法,结合联合国粮农组织数据库,定量分析了中亚地区5个国家、9种粮食作物的潜在单产及潜在面积,并通过控制粮食单产和生产面积的变化提出三种假设,测算出不同假设下中亚地区的粮食生产潜力、发展潜力和发展潜力幅度。结果表明：中亚地区的哈萨克斯坦粮食生产潜力和发展潜力大;小麦、大麦产量有较大提升空间,高粱、黑麦、谷子、燕麦、荞麦产量提升空间小且潜力集中在哈萨克斯坦,但高粱的发展潜力幅度很大。

关键词: 生产潜力, 发展潜力, 粮食, 中亚地区

Abstract:

Central Asia is of great significance for maintaining world food security because of its special geographical location and high grain production capacity. Exploring the potential of grain production in this region will help alleviate the global food crisis. In this paper, the GAEZ method, combined with the FAOSTAT database, is used to quantitatively analyze the potential yield per unit area and potential area of nine grain crops in the five Central Asian countries. And based on the assumption that the production area is a constant, the output per unit area is a constant, while the output per unit area and the production area are changed. In addition, the grain production potential, and the range of development potential in this region are measured. The results show that among the five countries, Kazakhstan has the greatest potential for grain production and development potential. In terms of crop types, wheat has the greatest potential for grain production and development potential, followed by barley; while oats, rye, sorghum, millet and buckwheat have the least grain production and development potential, and are concentrated in Kazakhstan In addition, sorghum has the largest range of development potential in the whole region.

Key words: production potential, development potential, grain, Central Asia

廖梦婷, 魏凤. 中亚地区粮食生产潜力及发展潜力分析——基于GAEZ方法[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(3): 582-593.

LIAO Meng-ting, WEI Feng. Analysis of grain production and development potentiality in Central Asia based on GAEZ method[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(3): 582-593.

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国家	水供给	小麦	湿地水稻	玉米	大麦	高粱	黑麦	谷子	燕麦	荞麦
哈萨克斯坦	雨养	1.575	1.904	1.961	1.407	2.655	1.399	1.702	1.124	0.545
	灌溉	3.086	4.962	6.438	2.839	5.728	1.788	3.351	1.905	0.700
	总体	1.685	4.866	2.481	1.508	2.869	1.427	1.823	1.181	0.565
吉尔吉斯斯坦	雨养	3.097	1.785	2.109	2.762	2.690	1.995	1.825	1.706	1.016
	灌溉	4.851	4.461	6.979	4.339	6.258	2.591	4.076	2.586	1.008
	总体	4.422	4.461	6.067	3.953	5.381	2.444	3.627	2.369	1.001
塔吉克斯坦	雨养	3.696	2.033	2.123	3.522	2.425	2.151	1.702	1.919	0.943
	灌溉	4.393	4.343	7.736	4.180	6.404	2.355	2.907	2.325	0.824
	总体	4.164	4.343	6.236	3.964	5.175	2.288	2.574	2.192	0.860
土库曼斯坦	雨养	2.012	1.798	1.243	1.890	1.695	1.334	0.995	1.309	0.591
	灌溉	3.446	4.283	6.950	3.542	5.874	1.956	2.308	1.961	0.726
	总体	3.377	4.281	6.718	3.328	5.515	1.899	2.253	1.901	0.714
乌兹别克斯坦	雨养	2.649	1.803	1.685	2.574	2.060	1.545	1.302	1.360	0.652
	灌溉	4.051	3.855	7.556	3.995	6.509	2.083	3.076	2.154	0.791
	总体	3.865	3.853	6.955	3.803	5.911	2.008	2.884	2.040	0.784

国家	适宜性指数				可耕地面积	现有耕地面积	潜在耕地面积
国家	VS	S	MS	mS	可耕地面积	现有耕地面积	潜在耕地面积
哈萨克斯坦	98.63	460.69	1281.07	5297.45	7137.84	2939.50	4198.34
吉尔吉斯斯坦	0	54.94	54.79	101.38	211.11	128.80	82.31
塔吉克斯坦	0.67	33.64	49.56	79.53	163.40	73.00	90.40
土库曼斯坦	0	0.69	27.46	27.46	202.64	194.00	8.64
乌兹别克斯坦	0	129.31	239.95	163.95	533.21	440.00	93.21
总计	99.30	679.27	1652.83	5669.77	8248.20	3775.30	4472.90

粮食种类	哈萨克斯坦		吉尔吉斯斯坦		塔吉克斯坦		土库曼斯坦		乌兹别克斯坦
粮食种类	生产潜力 /万t	排名	生产潜力 /万t	排名	生产潜力 /万t	排名	生产潜力 /万t	排名	生产潜力 /万t	排名
小麦	2013.85	1	120.51	5	122.00	4	501.34	3	554.03	2
湿地水稻	48.27	2	4.34	5	5.50	4	58.99	1	27.50	3
玉米	33.87	2	61.77	1	10.91	5	24.50	4	26.53	3
大麦	301.60	1	72.64	2	30.61	4	4.94	5	43.82	3
高粱	1.50	1	0.03	3	0.01	4	0	5	0.45	2
黑麦	5.00	1	0.10	3	0.01	4	0	5	0.15	2
谷子	8.54	1	0.01	3	0.01	4	0	5	0.28	2
燕麦	24.70	1	0.27	3	0.54	2	—	—	—	—
荞麦	5.69	1	0.71	2	—	—	—	—	—	—

粮食种类	哈萨克斯坦		吉尔吉斯斯坦		塔吉克斯坦		土库曼斯坦		乌兹别克斯坦
粮食种类	生产潜力 /万t	排名	生产潜力 /万t	排名	生产潜力 /万t	排名	生产潜力 /万t	排名	生产潜力 /万t	排名
小麦	3647.56	1	106.69	5	204.38	3	189.77	4	813.95	2
湿地水稻	104.65	1	5.73	5	22.60	3	13.92	4	42.40	2
玉米	182.78	1	106.12	2	45.24	4	5.23	5	53.55	3
大麦	706.45	1	66.36	2	31.93	3	2.09	5	28.13	4
高粱	1.13	1	0.03	2	0	4	—	—	0.93	2
黑麦	9.84	1	0.16	3	0.02	4	—	—	0.79	2
谷子	7.48	1	0	4	0.01	3	—	—	0.15	2
燕麦	70.08	1	0.40	3	0.72	2	—	—	—	—
荞麦	26.16	1	0.01	2	—	—	—	—	—	—

粮食种类	哈萨克斯坦		吉尔吉斯斯坦		塔吉克斯坦		土库曼斯坦		乌兹别克斯坦
粮食种类	发展潜力 /万t	排名	发展潜力 /万t	排名	发展潜力 /万t	排名	发展潜力 /万t	排名	发展潜力 /万t	排名
小麦	2145.43	1	41.60	4	113.07	3	8.09	5	142.29	2
湿地水稻	61.55	1	2.24	4	12.50	2	0.59	5	7.41	3
玉米	107.51	1	41.37	2	25.03	3	0.22	5	9.36	4
大麦	415.52	1	25.87	2	17.67	3	0.09	5	4.92	4
高粱	0.67	1	0.01	3	0	4	—	—	0.16	2
黑麦	5.79	1	0.06	3	0.01	4	—	—	0.14	2
谷子	4.40	1	0.01	3	0.01	4	—	—	0.67	2
燕麦	41.22	1	0.16	2	0.40	3	—	—	—	—
荞麦	15.39	1	0	2	—	—	—	—	—	—