未来升温1.5 ℃与2.0 ℃背景下中国水稻产量可能变化趋势

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210303

自然资源学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 567-581.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210303

未来升温1.5 ℃与2.0 ℃背景下中国水稻产量可能变化趋势

李鸣钰¹(), 高西宁², 潘婕³, 熊伟³, 郭李萍³, 林而达³, 李阔³()

1.辽宁省人工影响天气办公室,沈阳 110166
2.沈阳农业大学农学院,沈阳 110866
3.中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京 100081

收稿日期:2019-07-12 修回日期:2019-11-05 出版日期:2021-03-28 发布日期:2021-05-28
通讯作者: 李阔 E-mail:limingyu1050@163.com;likuo@caas.cn
作者简介:李鸣钰（1995- ）,男,辽宁沈阳人,硕士,助理工程师,研究方向为气候变化影响风险评估与适应。E-mail: limingyu1050@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFD0300301);“十二五”国家科技支撑项目(2013BAC09B00)

Possible trends of rice yield in China under global warming by 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃

LI Ming-yu¹(), GAO Xi-ning², PAN Jie³, XIONG Wei³, GUO Li-ping³, LIN Er-da³, LI Kuo³()

1. Liaoning Weather Modification Office, Shenyang 110166, China
2. College of Agronomy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
3. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2019-07-12 Revised:2019-11-05 Online:2021-03-28 Published:2021-05-28
Contact: LI Kuo E-mail:limingyu1050@163.com;likuo@caas.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于ISI-MIP的5个气候模式在4种RCP情景下模拟输出未来气候数据,筛选未来升温1.5 ℃和2.0 ℃的情景数据,依托CERES-Rice水稻模型,模拟升温1.5 ℃和2.0 ℃的背景下中国各区水稻产量变化趋势,综合分析未来气候变化特征与水稻产量之间的关系。结果表明：在1.5 ℃和2.0 ℃升温背景下,中国平均温度相对于基准时段分别升高1.19 ℃和1.87 ℃,平均降水量相对于基准时段分别增加3.07%和6.17%。1.5 ℃升温背景下中国水稻单产平均减幅7.49%,减产面积占水稻种植总面积的68.6%,严重减产面积占水稻种植总面积的10.3%,其中华南双季稻区单产减幅最大,而东北单季稻区单产增幅最大;2.0 ℃升温背景下中国水稻单产平均减幅12.02%,减产面积占水稻种植总面积的70.6%,严重减产面积占水稻种植总面积的18.7%,其中华南双季稻区单产减幅仍然最大,而西北单季稻区单产增幅最大。

关键词: 1.5 ℃升温, 2.0 ℃升温, CERES-Rice模型, 水稻产量, 减产风险

Abstract:

Five climate models of ISI-MIP were used to simulate and output future climate data under four RCP scenarios, and the scenario data of global warming by 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ in the future was screened. Based on CERES-Rice model, the trends of rice yield in various regions of China were simulated under the two scenarios, and the relationship between characteristics of future climate change and rice yield were comprehensively analyzed. The results showed that: under the global warming of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃, the average temperature in China increased by 1.19 ℃ and 1.87 ℃, respectively, and the average precipitation in China increased by 3.07% and 6.17%, respectively, relative to baseline period. Under the global warming of 1.5 ℃, the yield of rice per unit area decreased by 7.49% on average, the area of yield reduction and serious yield reduction accounted for 68.8% and 10.3% of the total rice planting area, respectively. Results showed that the biggest reduction rate was found in double cropping rice planting area of South China, and the biggest increase rate was observed in single cropping rice planting area of Northeast China. Under the global warming of 2.0 ℃, the yield of rice per unit area decreased by 12.02% on average, and the area of yield reduction and serious yield reduction accounted for 70.6% and 18.7% of the total rice planting area. And also, the biggest reduction rate was found in double cropping rice planting area of South China, and the biggest increase rate was observed in single cropping rice planting area of Northwest China.

Key words: global warming by 1.5 ℃, global warming by 2.0 ℃, CERES-Rice model, rice yield, yield reduction risk

李鸣钰, 高西宁, 潘婕, 熊伟, 郭李萍, 林而达, 李阔. 未来升温1.5 ℃与2.0 ℃背景下中国水稻产量可能变化趋势[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(3): 567-581.

LI Ming-yu, GAO Xi-ning, PAN Jie, XIONG Wei, GUO Li-ping, LIN Er-da, LI Kuo. Possible trends of rice yield in China under global warming by 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(3): 567-581.

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区域	品种参数
区域	P₁	P₂R	P₅	P₂O	G₁	G₂	G₃	G₄
华南湿热双季稻区早稻	880.0	55.5	315.0	12.0	45.0	0.2450	1.00	1.00
晚稻	830.0	50.0	550.0	15.0	100.0	0.0265	1.00	1.00
江南湿润双季稻区早稻	475.0	50.5	200.0	8.0	188.0	0.2750	1.00	1.00
晚稻	450.0	115.0	390.0	11.7	88.0	0.2700	1.00	1.00
西南高原湿润单季稻区	596.0	55.0	345.0	12.0	65.0	0.2160	1.00	1.00
长江流域单季稻区	765.0	35.0	395.0	8.0	40.0	0.0285	1.00	1.00
华北半湿润单季稻区	450.0	85.5	360.0	11.5	68.0	0.0230	1.00	1.00
东北半湿润早熟单季稻区	220.0	35.0	295.0	9.1	55.0	0.0220	1.00	1.00
西北干燥单季稻区	625.0	38.0	355.0	8.3	50.0	0.0280	1.00	1.00

未来升温1.5 ℃与2.0 ℃背景下中国水稻产量可能变化趋势

Possible trends of rice yield in China under global warming by 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃

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