农业产业化经营项目空间分布及驱动因素分析——以京津冀地区为例

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210219

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农业产业化经营项目是农业产业发展基础,是京津冀协同发展下调整农业产业结构、提高农业综合生产能力的重要内容。基于京津冀地区2011—2016年数据,利用核密度指数等方法研究产业化经营项目的空间分布及影响因素。结果显示：（1）京津冀地区农业产业化经营项目形成“斜一字型”核密度分布结构,密度由中部向东北、西南方向递减;（2）种植基地项目主要分布在河北省西南部、天津东部,养殖基地项目主要集中在河北省南部、天津市中部,储藏保鲜项目、改扩建加工项目分别向京津冀地区中北、东北方向迁移;（3）农业机械总动力、年末金融机构各项贷款余额是经营项目空间分布格局重要的影响因素,分别在农业发展“硬件”条件、配套资金供给方面影响经营项目分布。

关键词: 农业产业化, 经营项目, 空间分布, 京津冀地区, 驱动因素

Abstract:

Operation projects are the bases of agricultural industry development. What's more, they are important contents of adjusting agricultural industrial structure and improving agricultural comprehensive production capacity under the background of collaborative development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Based on the data of agricultural industrialization management projects in the study area from 2011 to 2016, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution and influencing factors using nuclear density index and other analysis methods. The results showed that: (1) The spatial distribution of operation projects formed an "oblique line" structure nuclear density, which declined from the central part to northeast and southwest. (2) Planting base projects were mainly distributed in southwest Hebei province and east Tianjin maunicipality, and breeding base projects were mainly in south Hebei and central Tianjin. Storage and fresh preservation projects as well as reconstruction and expansion processing projects were respectively transferred to the central north and northeast of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. (3) The distribution of operation projects were influenced by the total power of agricultural machinery and loan balance of financial institutions, which directly affected the "hardware" conditions of agricultural development and the supply of supporting funds.

Key words: agricultural industrialization, operation projects, spatial distribution, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, driving factor

陈凡, 郭剑, 栗欣如, 李建平. 农业产业化经营项目空间分布及驱动因素分析——以京津冀地区为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(2): 513-524.

CHEN Fan, GUO Jian, LI Xin-ru, LI Jian-ping. Spatial distribution of agricultural industrialization operation projects and its driving factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(2): 513-524.

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年份	Moran's I指数	Z检验值	显著性水平	空间结构类型
2011	0.308057	7.894073	0.01	集聚型
2012	0.127197	3.293039	0.01	集聚型
2013	0.155715	3.963021	0.01	集聚型
2014	0.169022	4.270417	0.01	集聚型
2015	0.119545	3.020926	0.01	集聚型
2016	0.121237	3.062449	0.01	集聚型

变量名称	单位	符号	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	观测值
项目数量	个	N	0.69	0.62	0.00	2.64	768
固定资产投资额	万元	far	13.82	0.71	11.60	15.93	768
农业机械总动力	万kW	mach	4.04	0.71	0.00	5.56	768
年末金融机构各项贷款余额	万元	sav	13.28	0.82	11.33	16.48	768
第一产业从业人员占比	%	popstruc	0.58	0.13	0.17	1.00	768
受教育程度	%	edu	0.12	0.02	0.05	0.19	768
固定电话用户	户	inform	10.71	0.78	8.07	13.46	768
公共财政支出占地区GDP比例	%	fprop	1.90	47.91	0.01	1327.77	768

固定效应模型	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6	模型7
far	0.126^** (2.30)	0.138^** (2.49)	-0.063 (-0.66)	-0.075 (-0.77)	-0.104 (-1.03)	-0.105 (-1.05)	-0.106 (-1.06)
mach		0.101 (1.33)	0.137^* (1.79)	0.135^* (1.75)	0.155^** （1.98）	0.167^** (2.07)	0.164^** (2.03)
sav			0.253^*** (2.58)	0.239^** (2.36)	0.250^** (2.46)	0.241^** (2.34)	0.239^** (2.32)
popstruc				0.114 (0.52)	0.170 (0.76)	0.150 (0.67)	0.151 (0.67)
edu					2.775 (1.33)	2.654 (1.26)	2.651 (1.26)
inform						-0.049 (-0.66)	-0.049 (-0.66)
fpop							-0.0003 (-0.71)
常数项	-1.044 (-1.38)	-1.621^* (-1.86)	-2.352^*** (-2.58)	-2.062^* (-1.93)	-2.245^** (-2.08)	-1.605 (-1.10)	-1.539 (-1.06)
R²	0.008	0.011	0.021	0.022	0.024	0.025	0.026