虚拟水社会循环视域下的水资源承载力评价

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210207

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国水资源短缺且分布不均,水资源利用的矛盾已从供给不足转为承载过度。以“可持续利用”概念为框架,在生态完整、水资源持续有效供给的基础上结合虚拟水社会循环过程,完善水资源承载力评价体系,并对西北地区进行分析评价。结果表明：（1）陕西总体较好,但近十年间呈现不断下降趋势,其中环境压力承压最大;甘肃总体上呈下降趋势,在环境和社会压力方面变化尤为明显;宁夏一直处于濒临或轻度超载状态,通过虚拟水贸易有所缓解;新疆受虚拟水流出影响较大,一直处于濒临或轻度超载状态;青海基本处于承载富余状态。（2）虚拟水贸易对水资源承载力综合压力指数影响较大,结合虚拟水社会循环过程的水资源承载力评价更具有现实指导意义。（3）面对不同水资源禀赋及用水效率的地区,其发展模式可以适当不同,用水效率高的地区可偏发展激进型一些,用水效率低的地区建议更靠近环保激进型一些。

关键词: 西北地区, 水资源, 虚拟水, 承载力指数

Abstract:

The shortage and uneven distribution of water resources in China are very serious. The contradiction of water utilization has changed from insufficient supply to overload of Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC). Based on the concept of sustainability, this study, combined with the society cycle process of virtual water, improves the evaluation method of WRCC and analyzes the WRCC of Northwest China. The method can be helpful to maintain the integrity of water ecology and the stability of water supply. The results show that: (1) The WRCC of Shaanxi is generally good. However, it has a downward trend in the past ten years, in which the environmental pressure is the largest. The WRCC of Gansu shows a downward trend on the whole, especially in terms of environmental and social pressure. The WRCC of Ningxia has been on the verge of overloading or slight overloading, and alleviated by virtual water trade. The WRCC of Xinjiang is greatly affected by virtual water outflow and has been on the verge of overloading or slight overloading. The WRCC of Qinghai is basically in a surplus state of carrying capacity. (2) Virtual water trade has a significant influence on the comprehensive pressure index of WRCC. The evaluation method of WRCC, combined with the society cycle process of virtual water, has a practical significance. (3) The regions of different endowments of water resources and the efficiency of using water can be appropriately different in development modes. We suggest that the regions with high and low use efficiency of water take the "radical development mode" and the "radical environmental protection mode", respectively.

Key words: Northwest China, water resources, virtual water, bearing capacity index

丁超, 胡永江, 王振华, 赵娜, 董文秀, 王黎明. 虚拟水社会循环视域下的水资源承载力评价[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(2): 356-371.

DING Chao, HU Yong-jiang, WANG Zhen-hua, ZHAO Na, DONG Wen-xiu, WANG Li-ming. Assessment of water resources carrying capacity from the perspective of virtual water social cycle[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(2): 356-371.

图/表 11

图1

图2

表1

生态环境需水量计算"

生态环境需水		计算办法	说明
城市生态需水Q_c	城市园林绿化需水	需水统计数据,来源为各省水资源公报
城市生态需水Q_c	城市人工水域需水	$Q c = A (E m - P m)$	A为水域面积（ $h m 2$ ）;E_m为平均蒸发量（mm）; $P m$ 为平均降水量（mm）
河道外生态环境需水Q_ro	植被需水	需水定额=150 $m 3 / h m 2$ ^[28]
	水土保持需水	需水定额=160 $m 3 / h m 2$ ^[28]
	人工水域（水库）需水	需水定额=304.25 $m 3 / h m 2$ ^[28]
河道内生态环境需水Q_ri	维持基本径流	$Q r = Mean Q i$	Q_i为第i年的平均径流量（亿m³）,采用蒙大拿法^[29]
河道内生态环境需水Q_ri	维持水沙平衡	$Q s = S t / C max$	S_t为多年平均输沙量（亿t）;C_max为平均多年最大月含沙量（亿t）

表1

表2

水资源承载力度量标准"

WRCC、 $I r$ 、 $I eco$ 、 $I pep$ 、 $I e$	<0	0~0.50	0.51~1.00	1.01~1.30	1.31~2.00	>2.00
承载力等级	F 严重超载严重恶化	E 重度超载资源匮乏	D 轻度超载资源短缺	C 濒临超载资源紧张	B 承载适宜资源协调	A 承载富余资源丰裕

表2

图3

图4

图5

图6

表3

表4

整合虚拟水社会循环对原实体水资源承载力影响情况"

省、自治区	年份	$I r entity$	$I r$	变化情况	$I e entity$	$I e$	变化情况	$I eco entity$	$I eco$	变化情况	$I pep entity$	$I pep$	变化情况	变化率/%
陕西	2007	A	A	不变	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变	16.67
	2012	A	B	降1档	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变
	2017	A	B	降1档	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变
甘肃	2007	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	F	F	不变	33.33
	2012	D	E	降1档	D	D	不变	D	E	降1档	F	F	不变
	2017	D	E	降1档	D	D	不变	D	E	降1档	F	F	不变
青海	2007	A	A	不变	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变	0
	2012	A	A	不变	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变
	2017	A	A	不变	B	B	不变	A	A	不变	A	A	不变
宁夏	2007	D	C	提1档	D	C	提1档	D	C	提1档	E	B	提3档	50.00
	2012	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	E	D	提1档
	2017	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	D	D	不变	E	D	提1档
新疆	2007	B	D	降2档	B	D	降2档	B	D	降2档	A	F	降5档	83.33
	2012	B	C	降1档	B	C	降1档	B	C	降1档	A	A	不变
	2017	B	D	降2档	B	C	降1档	B	C	降1档	A	A	不变

表4

图7

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省、自治区	虚拟水主要流出地及流出所占比例（前4名）
省、自治区	第1	亿m³	%	第2	亿m³	%	第3	亿m³	%	第4	亿m³	%
陕西	国外	24.8	29.5	内蒙古	12.1	14.4	山东	6.0	7.1	江苏	3.3	3.9
甘肃	山东	9.3	10.9	广东	7.9	9.3	江苏	5.8	6.8	内蒙古	5.2	6.1
青海	山东	0.8	11.0	广东	0.7	10.2	甘肃	0.6	8.7	江苏	0.5	6.8
宁夏	山东	5.8	11.6	广东	5.2	10.4	甘肃	4.8	9.6	江苏	3.3	6.7
新疆	国外	71.5	17.2	山东	40.5	9.8	广东	36.3	8.7	甘肃	33.0	8.0
省、自治区	虚拟水主要流入地及流入所占比例（前4名）
省、自治区	第1	亿m³	%	第2	亿m³	%	第3	亿m³	%	第4	亿m³	%
陕西	国外	20.3	33.1	黑龙江	4.0	6.6	内蒙古	3.5	5.6	新疆	3.4	5.5
甘肃	国外	13.3	26.6	新疆	12.0	24.1	宁夏	9.3	18.7	青海	5.0	10.0
青海	国外	4.3	66.8	新疆	0.7	10.8	宁夏	0.5	8.4	甘肃	0.2	3.3
宁夏	国外	41.9	82.0	新疆	3.1	6.2	青海	1.4	2.7	甘肃	1.0	1.9
新疆	国外	178.5	75.7	陕西	6.2	2.6	黑龙江	5.5	2.4	宁夏	4.8	2.0